With April coming to a close, we are a full month-plus into the 2026 season -- which means the events of the past month are worth analyzing. Sure, it’s just one-sixth of the regular season, but plenty of trends have already begun to take shape.
Let’s take a look at current division leaders and try to project what the postseason field could look like come October. Note, all stats below exclude the shortened 2020 season and instead look at full seasons for the impact and postseason implications.
What it means to be in first (or last) place
Since 1996 -- the first full season with at least one Wild Card in each league after the ‘95 campaign was limited to 144 games -- 88 of 174 eventual division champions held at least a share of their division lead entering May 1. That’s 51 percent of division winners.
Take note, Yankees, Tigers, Guardians, A’s, Braves, Reds and Dodgers fans -- those teams are our current division leaders heading into May.
Last season, two of the six division winners had a share of that lead on May 1. In the American League, the Mariners won their division, while the Yankees and Tigers, who led the AL East and Central, respectively, entering May, did not. Both still made it as a Wild Card. In the NL, the Dodgers won their division, but the Mets and Cubs, who led the East and Central, respectively, entering May, did not. The Cubs still made the playoffs as a Wild Card, while the Mets missed out entirely.
Since 1996, 18 of the 29 World Series winners, excluding 2020, led their divisions entering May. The Dodgers did so in ‘25, as noted above.
This year, the defending champion Dodgers are in first place entering May. How rare is that? Rarer than you might think. Of each of the 29 teams to win the World Series since 1996 and play in April the next year, the Dodgers are just the 11th to find themselves in first place through April that subsequent year. The last reigning World Series winners to be in first entering May before the Dodgers each of the last two years were the 2018 Astros.
What about the last-place teams? There’s plenty of season left, and it’s worth keeping up hope. In 2024, the Astros became the first team to be in last place entering May and go on to win their division since the 2015 Blue Jays and Rangers. Overall since 1996, 13 teams have had at least a share of last place in a division entering May, then gone on to make the playoffs that season. Of those, seven were division winners and six were Wild Cards.
This year’s leaders
Of this year’s current NL division leaders entering May, each has had at least a share of that lead entering May at least one other time since the start of 2024 except the Reds. They were last in this spot entering May in 2006, when they were tied at the top with the Cardinals. Their last sole possession entering May was in 2002. In the AL, the Yankees and Tigers were in this spot last year, the Guardians in ‘24 and the A’s in 2021.
The Guardians and Dodgers each won their divisions last season, while the Yankees did in 2024 and the Braves in ‘23. Beyond that, it’s been a while. The Tigers last won the division in 2014, the A’s in 2013 and the Reds last did so in 2012.
The big lead
The largest division lead right now belongs to the Braves, at 6 1/2 games. That’s tied with the 2012 Rangers for the third-largest division lead entering May since divisional play began in 1969. Only the 2001 Mariners (nine games) and 1977 Dodgers (7 1/2) led by more.
A caveat worth noting, however, is that this season featured the earliest domestic Opening Day in MLB history, and until relatively recently, seasons started once April had already begun. That means the Braves got more games to build their lead than the others on the list. Still impressive, but important context. The Braves have played 32 games. Nine teams have led their divisions by more than 6 1/2 games through their 32nd game of a season, with the most recent being the 2016 Cubs.
What’s next
There’s plenty of baseball yet to be played, but fans of the seven current division leaders can take some solace in the fact that historically, about half of those teams will go on to win those divisions. And for fans of non-leading teams? Well, just about 50/50 means there’s plenty of room for a different team to take these division crowns, too.