Third Time Through the Order Penalty

Definition

The "third time through the order penalty" in baseball refers to how pitchers tend to perform significantly worse when facing the opposing lineup for the third time in the same game compared to the first two times.

This is also sometimes referred to more generally as the "times through the order penalty," because pitchers' results get worse overall each successive time they face the opposing hitters. The impact is just the greatest the pitcher's third time through the batting order.

On the flip side, hitters tend to be more productive against the pitcher the more times they face him in the game.

For the 10-year period from 2016 through 2025, for example, here's how MLB starting pitchers have performed when facing the opposing batting order each time in a game:

  • 1st time through: .243 AVG, .309 OBP, .404 SLG, .713 OPS
  • 2nd time through: .255 AVG, .318 OBP, .428 SLG, .747 OPS
  • 3rd time through: .265 AVG, .329 OBP, .452 SLG, .780 OPS

While the size of this effect varies from pitcher to pitcher, and individual starting pitchers might have success even the third time through the order and beyond, for Major League pitchers as a whole, the times through the order penalty is clear.

Why does the third time through the order penalty exist?

There are multiple reasons why a starting pitcher might lose effectiveness the third time through the batting order. Theories as to why the times through the order penalty exists include:

  • Pitcher fatigue -- A starting pitcher will tire as the game goes on. By the time he faces the opposing lineup for a third time, his stuff or execution might be worse than it was earlier in the game. You could see a starter's velocity dip later in a game, for example, or his command of his pitches decline.
  • Hitter familiarity and adjustments -- The more times a hitter sees a specific pitcher, the more he might get used to that pitcher's stuff and approach, leading to hitters having an easier time "seeing" a pitcher as the game goes on. Starting pitchers will often try to negate this by changing their pitch usage or sequencing the second or third times through the batting order, but hitters can also make adjustments.
  • Pitchers facing only the best hitters the third time through -- When the starting pitcher gets to the third time through the batting order, the first hitters he faces will be the best hitters on the opposing team. Those hitters are the most likely to do damage. If a starting pitcher struggles against the top of the lineup at that stage of a game -- when he might already be near the end of his outing, with the bullpen ready to go in the later innings -- his team might remove him for a reliever before he gets to face the weaker bottom-of-the-order hitters for a third time. Starting pitchers often don't get to face the entire lineup for a third time, and they'll have worse numbers against the better hitters they do have to face.

How does it affect the game?

Over time, the third time through the order penalty has become much more widely understood by MLB teams, and it now often impacts in-game strategy, particularly in the postseason.

Teams will frequently go to the bullpen rather than have a starting pitcher face the top of the order for a third time in a game -- especially because those are the other team's best hitters.

Bringing in relievers earlier in the game limits the amount of times that opposing hitters get to see each pitcher, and mitigates the risk of the starter being hit harder and allowing more runs later in the game.

The percentage of all postseason innings thrown by relief pitchers has increased dramatically in recent years compared to the previous decades, and the frequency of starting pitchers facing the opposing lineup for a third time during the postseason has seen a steady decline.

Is it a new phenomenon?

No. While the awareness of the third time through the order penalty is much higher now than it used to be, the phenomenon has always existed in baseball.

Starting pitchers from every era, even Hall of Famers, have seen their performance get worse the more times they face the opposing lineup in a game. That doesn't mean pitchers are bad later in the game, just that they will usually be worse than they are earlier in the game.

Here are Bob Gibson's career splits by times through the order, for example:

  • 1st: .212 AVG, .282 OBP, .296 SLG, .578 OPS
  • 2nd: .221 AVG, .289 OBP, .316 SLG, .605 OPS
  • 3rd: .244 AVG, .309 OBP, .344 SLG, .653 OPS

Here are Steve Carlton's:

  • 1st: .219 AVG, .286 OBP, .320 SLG, .606 OPS
  • 2nd: .244 AVG, .311 OBP, .370 SLG, .682 OPS
  • 3rd: .254 AVG, .317 OBP, .385 SLG, .702 OPS

Here are Randy Johnson's:

  • 1st: .204 AVG, .282 OBP, .332 SLG, .614 OPS
  • 2nd: .222 AVG, .298 OBP, .352 SLG, .650 OPS
  • 3rd: .239 AVG, .313 OBP, .387 SLG, .700 OPS

Here are Justin Verlander's:

  • 1st: .215 AVG, .277 OBP, .350 SLG, .626 OPS
  • 2nd: .223 AVG, .283 OBP, .352 SLG, .625 OPS
  • 3rd: .246 AVG, .296 OBP, .401 SLG, .697 OPS

And those are the best pitchers who can still be successful throughout the entire game even with a dip in performance the more times through the order they go. For the average Major League starting pitcher, the times through the order penalty is even more pronounced.

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