PHILADELPHIA -- While the outside world spent plenty of time over the past few months pondering what’s wrong with Paul Skenes -- the dip in velocity, nine games without a win -- the Pirates ace has remained methodical.
Skenes hasn’t wavered. He trusts his process and believes the under-the-hood numbers his starts have produced will normalize in the second half.
The reigning National League Cy Young Award winner also isn’t a dummy. There are things he can improve, sure. But that conversation for Skenes doesn’t involve his fastball velocity, which has certainly been a hot-button topic.
“I think it’s funny [reporters] only ask [about velocity] when I don’t have a good outing,” Skenes said while reflecting on his first half at the MLB All-Star Game. “In those outings, I don’t think I really got damaged on my four-seamer.”
It’s an interesting question and one that deserves a deeper dive. Despite the velocity dip, the performance of his four-seamer has actually been solid, arguably the best of his career.
Among the numbers to consider:
• Opponents are hitting .195 against Skenes’ four-seamer compared to .205 last year and .230 as a rookie.
• They’re slugging .352 against it versus .347 last year and .351 during his first season.
• When it comes to Baseball Savant’s run value, Skenes’ four-seamer in 2026 (11) is on a similar pace to last season (20) and far ahead of 2024 (7).
Yes, his average velocity has dropped from 98.8 mph as a rookie to 98.2 in 2025 and 96.6 this season. But how much does that really matter? In Skenes’ mind, not much.
“I don’t think velocity is something I need to pitch well,” Skenes said. “I think it’s probably the first time in my career the velo has kinda dipped. It’s not something that I’m stressed over at all. I’m healthy. I’m feeling good and still pitching at a high level.”
Skenes called his first half “weird” and “interesting.” The numbers certainly support that, too.
Over his first two seasons, Skenes’ actual ERA was actually 0.61 better than his expected mark. This year -- for a variety of reasons that include both things Skenes can control and poor defense behind him -- his actual ERA (3.57) is 0.86 higher than his expected (2.71).
At the same time, there are a bunch of numbers with Skenes that fit well within his career norms.
Another sampling:
• His expected batting average against is .203 compared to a career mark of .199.
• His expected slugging percentage against is .320 compared to a career mark of .315.
• His strikeout rate is 29.5% compared to a career mark of 30.6%.
• His walk rate (5.5%) is actually a career low.
“It was a really interesting first half, because I don’t think I’ve thrown the ball poorly,” Skenes said. “But obviously some numbers look different. The strikeout rate is in a very good spot. The walk rate is in a good spot. Not giving up hard contact consistently. For whatever reason, the ERA is a little higher. Not something I’m losing any sleep over. It’s just been kind of a weird first half in that sense.”
Quality of contact is another area worth considering with Skenes. His hard-hit percentage of 37.4% represents a career low. The average exit velocity he’s allowed fits his career norms, too: 87.8 mph in 2024, 87.6 and 87.9 the past two.
Skenes’ barrel rate (6.1%) is slightly above his career average (5.7%), but we’re splitting some serious hairs at this point.
So, how would Skenes grade his first half?
“Probably a B,” Skenes said. “Not terrible. Could have been better. I think I’ve learned a lot. Interesting first half.”
One of the things Skenes learned is that there’s been a lot of fuss over the performance of pitching coach Bill Murphy. Suffice to say, Skenes doesn’t share those concerns.
He’s really enjoyed working with Murphy and believes many of the problems the Pirates pitchers have experienced -- they have a 4.32 ERA, 20th in MLB -- are more player-driven than anything.
“The job of a coach is to make it simpler for you,” Skenes said. “I think [Murphy] does a good job of that. ‘Throw your four-seamer here because it’s really good when you do that.’ It’s that simple. Go down the list with all the pitches.
“People can point fingers there, but I don’t think success or failure from a player is ever on the pitching coach.
“I think they can help. I think pitching coaches can change careers. But the player is the one who does the work and who goes out there and actually throws the ball.”
In Skenes’ case, there are areas for improvement, too. If you look closely at his three seasons and feel comforted by certain trends continuing, it’s also fair to point out when numbers have changed.
For example, Skenes has thrown a career-low 46.4% of his pitches in the strike zone. That’s down from 50.7% last season and below the MLB average of 48.7%. When it comes to pitches that actually result in strikes, that number has declined from 66.1% as a rookie to 65.1% last year and 64.8% in 2026.
Enough to make a huge difference? Debatable. But when Skenes has struggled, it has most often included some combination of two-strike and fastball execution and the need to be around the plate more.
There’s also his pitching style. As a rookie, Skenes ranked in the 100th percentile of run value achieved by his offspeed stuff, the result of nobody touching his splinker. That pitch hasn’t been as effective (drop in run value from 17 to 2) or as frequently used (28.4% to 11.3% in 2026).
Since his worst start of the season July 1 in Philadelphia, where he allowed eight runs (seven earned) in just four innings, Skenes has also changed how frequently he relies on his fastball, throwing it 51% and 60% of the time over his last two starts.
That’s more akin to how Skenes has attacked in the past, it’s allowed him to consistently pound the zone more. It could also help his splinker play up because the two tunnel off each other well.
It’s why Skenes isn’t worried. If anything, he’s excited to get going in the second half, believing he and the Pirates still have plenty to prove.
“We’re in a good spot,” Skenes said. “Kind of wish we didn’t have an All-Star break at this point because we’re playing good baseball. But I’m super-confident in our ability to show up after the break.”
Jason Mackey: Jason.Mackey@pirates.com and @JMackey_PGH on X.