Redrafting the 2016 Draft class, 10 years later

Scouts didn't love the 2016 Draft at the time. The strongest demographic was also the riskiest (high school pitchers), none of the best college hitters were a lock to stay in the middle of the diamond and most of the top college arms didn't live up to expectations.

"This is probably the worst top five or top 10 in the last 20 years," one scouting executive said. "I also think it's the most uncertain top five in recent memory."

As it has played out, 2016's first round is one of the worst in recent memory. In our annual redraft from 10 years ago, only one first-round choice cracked the top 15 selections and just eight made the retro first round -- compared to nine players found in double-digit rounds. Will Smith and Cole Ragans are the only first-rounders who blossomed into All-Stars, while the first five selections have combined for 0.8 Wins Above Replacement (Baseball Reference style).

Not only did the Dodgers land the best player (Smith) with the 32nd overall pick, they also drafted seven of the 34 benefit-of-hindsight first-rounders. Along with Smith, Gavin Lux (first round), Dustin May (third) and Tony Gonsolin (ninth) won World Series rings with Los Angeles. Luke Raley (seventh), Dean Kremer (14th) and Zach McKinstry (33rd) all became trade fodder, with Kremer part of a five-prospect package that landed Manny Machado in 2018.

McKinstry wasn't quite the lowest-drafted player to make our update first round. David Bednar went from Padres 35th-rounder to two-time All-Star. The biggest bargains on the list below were a pair of senior-sign right-handers: Hawaii Pacific's Rico Garcia, whom the Rockies signed for $1,000 in the 30th round, and St. Mary's Gonsolin, who turned pro for $2,500.

For the purposes of this redraft, only players who signed pro contracts in 2016 were considered. The best draftees who didn't turn pro were high school catchers Adley Rutschman (40th round, Mariners) and Shea Langeliers (34th, Blue Jays). The Orioles drafted Rutschman No. 1 overall and the Braves popped Langeliers at No. 8 three years later.

1. Phillies: Will Smith, C, Louisville
Actual pick: Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS, Carlsbad, Calif. Smith: first round, No. 32, Dodgers.

Though Smith surged from batting .235 in his first two seasons at Louisville to becoming the best all-around catcher in the 2016 Draft, his lack of track record contributed to him lingering on the board for 32 picks. He since has developed into a three-time All-Star and hit an 11th-inning home run to win Game Seven of the 2025 World Series. Scouts considered Moniak one of the most polished prep hitters in years, but a lack of impact kept him from finding regular big league playing time until mid-2023.

2. Reds: Bo Bichette, SS, Lakewood HS, St. Petersburg, Fla.
Actual pick: Nick Senzel, 3B, Tennessee. Bichette: second round, Blue Jays.

Questions about Bichette's big leg kick, busy right-handed swing and lack of quickness caused him to drop to the second round, though his bat earned him an over-slot $1.1 million bonus. He made two All-Star teams and twice led the American League in hits in seven seasons with the Blue Jays before signing with the Mets last offseason. The best pure hitter in the college class, Senzel never got going in the Majors because of injuries and too many position changes.

3. Braves: Pete Alonso, 1B, Florida
Actual pick: Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS, Clifton Park, N.Y. Alonso: second round, Mets.

Alonso offered some of the best power in the college ranks, but his lack of athleticism and profile as a righty-hitting first baseman knocked him down to the second round, where he took an under-slot $909,200 bonus. He arrived at Citi Field with a rookie-record 53 homers in 2019 and made five All-Star Games in seven seasons before joining the Orioles as a free agent last offseason. Anderson was a surprise pick who would be derailed by injuries, but he posted a 1.26 ERA in eight postseason starts in 2020-21 and contributed to a 2021 World Series championship.

4. Rockies: Bryan Reynolds, OF, Vanderbilt
Actual pick: Riley Pint, RHP, St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Overland Park, Kan. Reynolds: second round, Giants.

The best hitter on Vanderbilt's 2014 College World Series championship club as a freshman and a three-year star for the Commodores, Reynolds had mid-first-round talent but slid to the 59th overall pick amid signability worries. Traded to the Pirates for Andrew McCutchen in January 2018, he has been Pittsburgh's best position player ever since and has earned two All-Star Game nods. Pint famously hit 102 mph with his fastball in high school and drew some Justin Verlander comparisons but never threw strikes in pro ball.

5. Brewers: Corbin Burnes, RHP, St. Mary's
Actual pick: Corey Ray, OF, Louisville. Burnes: fourth round, Brewers.

Burnes starred at St. Mary's and proved himself in the Cape Cod League, but medical concerns about his back dropped him to the Brewers with the 111th overall pick. That proved to be a steal as he won the 2021 National League Cy Young Award, finished in the top eight in NL Cy voting every season from 2020-24 and made four straight All-Star Games from 2021-24. Ray offered one of the best combinations of hitting ability and athleticism in the Draft, but an inability to make consistent contact as a pro limited him to a single big league game.

6. Athletics: Shane Bieber, RHP, UC Santa Barbara
Actual pick: A.J. Puk, LHP, Florida. Bieber: fourth round, Cleveland.

Bieber's control stood out more than his stuff at UC Santa Barbara, where he led the Gauchos to their first-ever College World Series appearance in 2016. Cleveland helped him boost the velocity on his fastball and the quality of his breaking pitches, which led to him sandwiching a pair of All-Star nods in 2019 and 2021 around an American League Cy Young Award and pitching triple crown in 2020. The top-rated college pitcher, Puk battled inconsistency and injuries with Florida before doing the same with three big league clubs.

7. Marlins: Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Stoneman Douglas HS, Parkland, Fla.
Actual pick: Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence (Ala.) HS. Luzardo: third round, Nationals.

One of the best pitchability lefties in the prep class, Luzardo created excitement when his fastball touched 97 mph early in his senior season but ultimately blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery. The Nationals had a history of drafting pitchers coming off elbow reconstructions and paid him an over-slot $1.4 million in the third round before eventually trading him to the A's to get Sean Doolittle, the closer on their 2019 World Series championship club. Luzardo has developed into one of the best southpaws in the Majors, while the similarly polished Garrett has shown flashes but been unable to stay healthy.

8. Padres: Zac Gallen, RHP, North Carolina
Actual pick: Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford. Gallen: third round, Cardinals.

A steady performer for three years at North Carolina, Gallen was perceived to have a high floor but somewhat limited ceiling. Sent to the Cardinals in a package for Marcell Ozuna in December 2017, he exceeded expectations by becoming a solid mid-rotation starter and a 2023 All-Star. Quantrill missed his entire junior season at Stanford recovering from Tommy John surgery and has carved out a career as a back-of-the-rotation option.

9. Tigers: Tommy Edman, SS, Stanford
Actual pick: Matt Manning, RHP, Sheldon HS, Sacramento, Calif. Edman: sixth round, Cardinals.

The Cardinals owned three first-rounders that they turned into Delvin Pérez, Dylan Carlson and Dakota Hudson, but they were easily surpassed by Gallen and another player who stood out more with his performance and makeup than his tools or size. Edman since has won a Gold Glove (2023) with St. Louis and an NL Championship Series MVP award (2024) and two World Series (2024, 2025) with the Dodgers. Scouts loved Manning's mid-90s fastball and athletic 6-foot-6 frame, but injuries stunted his pro career.

10. White Sox: Brandon Marsh, OF, Buford (Ga.) HS
Actual pick: Zack Collins, C, Miami. Marsh: second round, Angels.

After winning two Georgia state football championships as a wide receiver, Marsh raised his baseball profile as a senior and impressed with his athleticism. He became a big league regular in mid-2021, joined the Phillies in a trade for Logan O'Hoppe a year later and has earned his first All-Star Game berth with a breakout 2026 season. Collins had power and arm strength but ultimately lacked hitting ability and receiving skills, so he didn't stick for long in the Majors.

11. Mariners: Michael King, RHP, Boston College
Actual pick: Kyle Lewis, OF, Mercer. King: 12th round, Marlins.

12. Red Sox: Sean Murphy, C, Wright State
Actual pick: Jay Groome, LHP, Barnegat (N.J.) HS. Murphy: third round, Athletics.

13. Rays: David Bednar, RHP, Lafayette
Actual pick: Josh Lowe, 3B, Pope HS, Marietta, Ga. Bednar: 35th round, Padres.

14. Guardians: Nathaniel Lowe, 1B, Mississippi State
Actual pick: Will Benson, OF, The Westminster Schools, Atlanta. Lowe: 13th round, Rays.

15. Twins: Aaron Civale, RHP, Northeastern
Actual pick: Alex Kirilloff, OF, Plum HS, Pittsburgh. Civale: 3rd round, Indians.

16. Angels: Cole Ragans, LHP, North Florida Christian HS, Tallahassee, Fla.
Actual pick: Matt Thaiss, C, Virginia. Ragans: first round, No. 30, Rangers.

17. Astros: Austin Hays, OF, Jacksonville
Actual pick: Forrest Whitley, RHP, Alamo Heights HS, San Antonio. Hays: third round, Orioles.

18. Yankees: Cal Quantrill, RHP, Stanford
Actual pick: Blake Rutherford, OF, Chaminade Prep, West Hills, Calif. Quantrill: first round, No. 8, Padres.

19. Mets: Gavin Lux, SS, Indian Trail HS, Kenosha, Wis.
Actual pick: Justin Dunn, RHP, Boston College. Lux: first round, No. 20, Dodgers.

20. Dodgers: Dean Kremer, RHP, Nevada-Las Vegas
Actual pick: Lux. Kremer: 14th round, Dodgers.

21. Blue Jays: Dylan Lee, LHP, Fresno State
Actual pick: T.J. Zeuch, RHP, Pittsburgh. Lee: 10th round, Marlins.

22. Pirates: Tony Gonsolin, RHP, St. Mary's
Actual pick: Will Craig, 1B, Wake Forest. Gonsolin: ninth round, Dodgers.

23. Cardinals: Luke Raley, OF, Lake Erie (Ohio)
Actual pick: Delvin Pérez, SS, International Baseball Academy, Ceiba, P.R. Raley: seventh round, Dodgers.

24. Padres: Eric Lauer, LHP, Kent State
Actual pick: Hudson Potts, SS, Carroll HS, Southlake, Texas. Lauer: first round, No. 25, Padres.

25. Padres: Dustin May, RHP, Northwest HS, Justin, Texas
Actual pick: Lauer. May: third round, Dodgers.

26. White Sox: Braxton Garrett, LHP, Florence (Ala.) HS
Actual pick: Zack Burdi, RHP, Louisville. Garrett: first round, No. 7, Marlins.

27. Orioles: Alex Call, OF, Ball State
Actual pick: Cody Sedlock, RHP, Illinois. Call: third round, White Sox.

28. Nationals: Zach McKinstry, SS, Central Michigan
Actual pick: Carter Kieboom, SS, Walton HS, Marietta, Ga. McKinstry: 33rd round, Dodgers.

29. Nationals: Mickey Moniak, OF, La Costa Canyon HS, Carlsbad, Calif.
Actual pick: Dane Dunning, RHP, Florida. Moniak: first round, No. 1, Phillies.

30. Rangers: Anthony Bender, RHP, Santa Rosa (Calif.) JC
Actual pick: Ragans. Bender: 20th round, Royals.

31. Mets: Bryan Baker, RHP, North Florida
Actual pick: Anthony Kay, LHP, Connecticut. Baker: 11th round, Rockies.

32. Dodgers: Griffin Jax, RHP, Air Force
Actual pick: Smith. Jax: third round, Twins.

33. Cardinals: Ian Anderson, RHP, Shenendehowa HS, Clifton Park, N.Y.
Actual pick: Dylan Carlson, OF, Elk Grove (Calif.) HS. Anderson: first round, No. 3, Braves.

34. Cardinals: Rico Garcia, RHP, Hawaii Pacific
Actual pick: Dakota Hudson, RHP, Mississippi State. Garcia:, 30th round, Rockies.