Remember everything you thought you knew on Opening Day? Yeah, about that.
One month since the start of the season, a number of teams that were expected to be top contenders have stumbled out of the gate. Meanwhile, several surprising clubs have positioned themselves to shake up races in the coming months.
Below, you’ll find the 10 teams -- the five biggest risers and the five biggest fallers -- whose playoff odds (per FanGraphs) have changed the most since Opening Day. (All stats below, including odds, are through Thursday.)
BIGGEST RISERS
1. Guardians: +23.5 (15.2% to 38.7%)
Although the Guardians won the American League Central in each of the past two years, there was naturally some skepticism about their chances of making it three in a row. After all, it took a historic comeback to win the division in 2025, and they had a quiet offseason even by their usual reserved standards. But here we are a month into the season and the Guardians are right back at the top of the AL Central, tied with the Tigers at 14-12.
While José Ramírez also has been doing José Ramirez things -- he’s on pace for nearly 40 homers and more than 60 steals -- Cleveland owes much of its success to the rotation trio of Gavin Williams, Parker Messick and Joey Cantillo. The club has gone 13-2 in the 15 games started by one of those pitchers, who have combined for a 2.31 ERA with 99 strikeouts over 85 2/3 innings.
2. Padres: +19.9 (27.0% to 46.9%)
The Padres lost Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez and Ryan O'Hearn in free agency. They lost Opening Day starter Nick Pivetta to a flexor strain in his right elbow. And their offense is slashing .234/.310/.372 on the year. But amid all of that turmoil, San Diego sits at 17-8 -- tied with the vaunted Dodgers for first place in the NL West.
With his dominance reaching another stratosphere, Mason Miller has been one of the defining figures of the young season. The Padres closer has struck out 27 of the 41 batters he’s faced and is tied with Cla Meredith for the longest scoreless streak (33 2/3 innings dating back to 2025) in franchise history.
Meanwhile, right-hander Randy Vásquez has been a huge surprise -- his velocity is up, he owns a 1.88 ERA and a 2.55 FIP and the Padres are 5-0 when he starts. San Diego also beefed up its rotation depth earlier this week, signing Lucas Giolito to a one-year deal.
3. Cubs: +19.2 (54.0% to 73.2%)
The NL Central has been the best division in baseball from top to bottom, which is something no one saw coming. All five teams have winning records, and three of the five have seen their playoff odds improve by double figures since Opening Day, including the Cubs.
Granted, it hasn’t all been rosy on the North Side of Chicago. Michael Busch and Pete Crow-Armstrong have combined for a .594 OPS, starter Cade Horton (right elbow surgery) was lost for the season and the club’s late-inning relief corps also has been decimated by injuries. But that hasn’t stopped the Cubs from reeling off nine straight wins.
4. Rangers: +15.9 (46.3% to 62.2%)
Texas’ improved playoff outlook is as much a product of its division as its own performance. Coming into the season, the Mariners and Astros appeared to be the biggest impediment to the Rangers making the postseason. However, Seattle has started out 11-15, Houston sits at 10-16 and Texas is tied with the Athletics for first place at 13-12.
Brandon Nimmo (.892 OPS), acquired from the Mets in the offseason, has been one of the bright spots for the Rangers. Texas also has leaned on ace Jacob deGrom (2.13 ERA, 12.4 K/9) and its unheralded relief corps, which ranks second in the Majors with a 2.98 ERA.
5. Yankees: +14.3 (78.8% to 93.1%)
The AL East was supposed to be MLB’s best division this year, but it hasn’t worked out that way. Four of the five teams have a negative run differential, and the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox are all under .500. The Yankees, on the other hand, are 16-9 with a +37 run differential.
While Aaron Judge and Ben Rice have helped keep the Yankees’ offense humming, New York’s rotation has been the team’s driving force. Even with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón on the mend, the Yankees’ starting staff leads MLB with a 2.59 ERA -- including a 1.77 ERA from Cam Schlittler.
BIGGEST FALLERS
1. Mets: -37.2 (80.4% to 43.2%)
After collapsing last summer and falling short of a playoff berth, the Mets didn’t just tweak their roster -- they overhauled it. Out went longtime staples Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Edwin Díaz and Nimmo. In came Bo Bichette, Luis Robert Jr., Freddy Peralta, Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams and Luke Weaver, joining core pieces such as Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Nolan McLean. Those changes propelled the Mets to the second-best playoff odds of any team on Opening Day, behind only the Dodgers.
However, much of that optimism has evaporated in a hurry. The Mets own the lowest OPS in the Majors (.635) and recently endured a 12-game losing streak. They’ll also be without Lindor for an extended period after he strained his left calf -- just one day after Soto returned from a calf strain of his own. Add in last year’s rough finish and New York is 47-71 (.398) over its past 118 games.
2. Phillies: -32.0 (68.9% to 36.9%)
The Mets aren’t the only NL East contender going through a tough time right now. The Phillies are right there with them, having lost nine straight games going into Friday. Unlike the Mets, who made sweeping changes, this Philadelphia roster looks a lot like the one that won back-to-back division titles, with the Phils re-signing both Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto in free agency this past offseason. But something just isn’t working this year. The Phillies rank 27th in runs scored and 28th in runs allowed, which is never a good recipe for success.
Zack Wheeler’s return from thoracic outlet decompression surgery should help, but Philadelphia also needs more from Trea Turner (.622 OPS), Alec Bohm (.436 OPS), Bryson Stott (.503 OPS), Jesús Luzardo (6.91 ERA) and Aaron Nola (5.06 ERA) to turn its season around.
3. Royals: -28.1 (44.8% to 16.7%)
Superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is homerless. Opening Day starter Cole Ragans has a 6.00 ERA. And Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez -- the team’s two leading home runs hitters in 2025 -- have combined for a .530 OPS. As if those issues weren’t enough, Kansas City also has the highest bullpen ERA (6.29) in the Majors.
With all of that going on, it’s no wonder the Royals have started out 8-17, losing nine of their past 10 games.
4. Red Sox: -27.7 (60.7% to 33.0%)
The Red Sox spent the offseason emphasizing run prevention, highlighted by the additions of starters Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez. But that goal hasn’t translated to results. Boston’s rotation has the Majors’ sixth-highest ERA (4.88) -- including a 7.88 mark from ace Garrett Crochet -- and the team's offense hasn’t been able to compensate.
The Red Sox rank 26th in runs scored and are tied for last with 14 homers. Willson Contreras and Wilyer Abreu have been solid, but every other Boston regular has an OPS+ below league average. That includes highly touted youngster Roman Anthony, who was expected to take another step toward superstardom this year but instead has hit .225 with one homer and is now dealing with a back injury. Adding insult to injury, the Red Sox just got swept by the rival Yankees at Fenway Park.
5. Blue Jays: -16.7 (52.8% to 36.1%)
After falling literally inches shy of a World Series title in 2025, the Blue Jays came into this season determined to finish the job. But injuries are threatening to stand in the way. Toronto is currently without outfielders George Springer and Addison Barger and catcher Alejandro Kirk, as well as starting pitchers Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, José Berríos and Cody Ponce.
On top of that, closer Jeff Hoffman -- on the heels of a crushing blown save in World Series Game 7 last year -- has struggled, prompting the club to make a change in the ninth inning.