The Astros made the playoffs for eight straight seasons from 2017-24 before that streak ended on a tiebreaker last year. Yet since MLB Pipeline began evaluating farm systems biannually in 2020, Houston never has rated higher than 27th.
Obviously, the Astros keep producing enough talent to keep winning. Jeremy Peña was the American League Championship Series and World Series MVP as a rookie in 2022 and has played well ever since. Hunter Brown finished third in AL Cy Young Award balloting last year, when fellow homegrown products Bryan Abreu, Yainer Diaz and Jake Meyers also played key roles. Rookies A.J. Blubaugh and Zach Cole also opened eyes with their contributions down the stretch.
Though Houston got shut out on our preseason Top 100 Prospects list for the third time in five years, the Astros do have several position players on the cusp of making the cut. Outfielder Kevin Alvarez combines tools and polish at age 18, the club's first two 2025 Draft picks (shortstop Xavier Neyens, outfielder Ethan Frey) have high offensive ceilings and Brice Matthews is one of the game's best second-base prospects.
The Astros join the Royals as the only organizations to have new Top 30 lists that are entirely homegrown. Houston has excelled at finding bargain pitchers in the Draft and on the international market and continues to do so. The system's three best mound prospects are 16th-rounder Bryce Mayer, sixth-rounder Ethan Pecko and seventh-rounder Blubaugh, while its top international arms (Miguel Ullola, Alimber Santa) signed for just $75,000 each out of the Dominican Republic.
Here's a look at the Astros' top prospects:
- Kevin Alvarez, OF
- Xavier Neyens, SS
- Ethan Frey, OF
- Brice Matthews, 2B
- Walker Janek, C
Biggest jump/fall
Here are the players whose ranks changed the most from the 2025 preseason list to the 2026 preseason list.
Jump: Bryce Mayer, RHP (2025: 30 | 2026: 6)
He went from a 6.58 ERA as a redshirt junior at Missouri in 2024 to Astros Minor League pitcher of the year in 2025, adding velocity to his fastball while shaping a pair of solid breaking balls.
Fall: Luis Baez, OF (2025: 12 | 2026: NR)
Though he still owns some of the best raw power in the system, he has regressed athletically and went deep just twice in 68 games last season.
Best tools
Players are graded on a 20-80 scouting scale for future tools -- 20-30 is well below average, 40 is below average, 50 is average, 60 is plus and 70-80 is well above average. Players in parentheses have the same grade.
Hit: 60 -- Kevin Alvarez
Power: 65 -- Xavier Neyens
Run: 60 -- Zach Cole (Brice Matthews, Anthony Millan, Lucas Spence)
Arm: 70 -- Walker Janek (Zach Cole)
Defense: 60 -- Anthony Millan
Fastball: 65 -- Miguel Ullola
Curveball: 65 -- Hudson Leach
Slider: 55 -- A.J. Blubaugh (Ramsey David, Ryan Forcucci, Bryce Mayer, Gabel Pentecost, Alimber Santa)
Changeup: 60 -- Cole Hertzler (Jose Fleury, Jackson Nezuh)
Control: 55 -- James Hicks (Ryan Forcucci)
How they were built
Draft: 22 | NDFA: 2 | International: 6
Breakdown by ETA
2026: 9 | 2027: 9 | 2028: 6 | 2029: 4 | 2030: 1 | 2031: 1
Breakdown by position
C: 3 | 2B: 1 | SS: 3 | OF: 7 | RHP: 16