This story was excerpted from Daniel Kramer's Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SEATTLE -- It’s been nearly six long months since the Mariners’ stinging end to last season, and it’ll be another six months until they truly get the chance at redemption. But after finishing one game shy of the 2023 playoffs, after a topsy-turvy offseason that led to a reimagined roster and after a Spring Training that featured all the clichés yet with the credence of promise, the end to the long winter is finally here.
Opening Day is on the horizon.
With all that in mind, here’s a look ahead to Seattle’s 2024 season:
What needs to go right?
The Mariners have a blossoming star who, at his best, could be capable of winning the American League MVP Award, and a cadre of starting pitchers on a short list among the favorites for the AL Cy Young Award. The bullpen has question marks -- but a track record -- and the new-look lineup features players with injury history but also promise.
Yet, the blueprint for how the Mariners are built hinges so heavily on Julio Rodríguez playing at an elite level for the entire season rather than in spurts and the rotation of Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo remaining healthy and pitching to their potential.
That group already took its first hit on Monday when the club revealed that Woo will begin the year on the injured list with right elbow inflammation, though they’re optimistic that he won’t miss an extended stretch. The baton will now be passed to Emerson Hancock, who himself has dealt with multiple arm injuries in recent years before arriving at Spring Training healthy.
The Mariners remarkably didn’t lose a starter to the IL in 2022, then they were battered early in ‘23. They can ill-afford a similar fate.
Great unknown: The offense
Seattle believes that a retooled group -- headlined by the additions of Mitch Garver, Mitch Haniger and Jorge Polanco, along with the expected progress of Dominic Canzone and the hopeful rebound of Ty France -- should be better equipped to handle the lows in the ebbs and flows of a six-month season.
It’s not just personnel; their pre- and mid-game adjustments will be vital, and the early returns in Spring Training were superb.
But spring results can be convoluted; Garver, Haniger, Polanco each have notable injury history; Canzone has just 59 games of MLB experience and France had, by his estimation, an all-around down year. There’s certainly promise with this new-look group, but also some uncertainty.
Team MVP will be: Julio Rodríguez
He no longer shares the American League with Shohei Ohtani, so there’s a chance that Rodríguez could propel into the MVP conversation for beyond just his team.
While a case could be made that J.P. Crawford was the team’s MVP last year -- he was certainly their most consistent player -- and what Cal Raleigh brings to a pitching staff, beyond his 30 homers, is immeasurable, Rodriguez remains the Mariners’ best player.
Team Cy Young will be: George Kirby
Castillo will hold this mantle until someone seizes it from him, but Kirby could be that candidate. He was great as a rookie (8-5, 3.39 ERA, 133 strikeouts in 25 starts and a sixth-place AL Rookie of the Year finish), and even better in his second year (13-10, 3.35 ERA, 172 K's in 31 starts, All-Star honors and an eighth-place AL Cy Young finish). At just 26 years old, with an ability to add elite pitches on the fly, eat innings (190 2/3 last year) and thrive in huge moments, Kirby has all the ingredients to be an ace.
Bold prediction: They will go further in October than any AL West team
Notice the wording here? While the Mariners are a trendy pick among non-favorites to win their division, they still reside in a group that houses each of the past two World Series champions. Texas could see some regression, but Houston can’t be taken lightly -- even with a new manager and some questions to its rotation.
That said, Seattle’s roster is better built for October, particularly if its rotation pitches to its potential and the offense -- while not a juggernaut -- finds more consistency.
The theme of the Mariners' spring has been turning the page from a stinging end to last year, and after finishing one game behind the Rangers and two behind the Astros to sit at home all October, the Mariners are hungry to redeem themselves if they create another opportunity.