Finally, we can see the finish line. Which is, of course, the starting line.
Spring Training has nearly come to an end, and Opening Day is so close we can almost see the bunting. (The decorations, not the small-ball strategy.) There hasn’t been a ton of drama in what figures to be the Majors’ most dramatic division race, top to bottom, this season. But the end of camp is a good time to take stock of what really matters, what’s still to come and how we see it all shaking out in the American League East.
Let’s check in with the beat reporters covering all five teams to see what we’ve learned this spring.
What’s something each team should feel better about than they did at the start of camp?
Keegan Matheson (Blue Jays): The lineup’s power upside
This really comes down to three hitters in Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Addison Barger and Daulton Varsho. Vladdy looked great at the World Baseball Classic and should carry that momentum right into the regular season, where we all know he’s capable of more than the 23 home runs he hit a year ago. Frankly, he’s capable of doubling that, which we saw in 2021, but 35-plus will do for now. Barger is carrying over some momentum of his own from a great ‘25 postseason and his power potential is massive, but it may be Varsho who is inspiring the most excitement in camp. He’s launched five home runs and is driving the ball to left-center, which is new for him, and one must never underestimate the motivation of a contract year.
Bryan Hoch (Yankees): Pitching depth
You never have enough starting pitching, but the Yankees are fortunate to have plenty. Max Fried will take the ball on Opening Night in San Francisco, to be followed by Cam Schlittler, who was a breakout star in the second half. Ryan Weathers is a project and Luis Gil offered mixed results, but Will Warren looked sharp all spring, suggesting he may be primed to take a step forward. They’ve got reinforcements on the way in Gerrit Cole (right elbow ligament tear) and Carlos Rodón (loose bodies, bone spur in left elbow); Cole especially has looked better than I expected, coming off Tommy John surgery.
Ian Browne (Red Sox): Ability to score
There was skepticism entering camp that the Red Sox would be able to score enough runs this season following the departure of free agent Alex Bregman. While chief baseball officer Craig Breslow made a couple of solid if not spectacular additions to the lineup in Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin, Boston could get plenty of punch from the existing young core. Roman Anthony looks ready to become a star. Wilyer Abreu could hit 30 homers if he avoids the two injured list stints he had last year. Jarren Duran appears determined to get back to the hitter he was two years ago. The prediction here is that Boston will be a top three-to-five offense in the American League.
Adam Berry (Rays): Shane McClanahan and the rotation
After losing the last two seasons to Tommy John surgery and a nerve issue in his left triceps, McClanahan has proven his health this spring. The better news? The two-time All-Star has looked a lot more like himself every time he’s taken the mound, following a thoughtful plan for his return to the rotation. That’s huge news for a group that already features Opening Day starter Drew Rasmussen, one of the league’s most underrated arms, as well as lefty Steven Matz, who has quietly enjoyed an excellent camp. While those three will have their innings monitored to varying degrees, Nick Martinez and Ryan Pepiot are built up to handle significant workloads.
Jake Rill (Orioles): The rotation depth
The position-player core and the bullpen each took some injury hits this spring -- Jackson Holliday (right hamate bone fracture), Jordan Westburg (partial right UCL tear) and Andrew Kittredge (right shoulder inflammation) will all begin on the IL -- but the rotation is in great shape. In fact, the Orioles had six quality starters for five spots, which resulted in the surprising decision to option Dean Kremer at the end of camp. This rotation has the potential to be among the most underrated in MLB. It also says something about the depth that Kremer, Cade Povich and Brandon Young -- a trio that combined to make 61 starts for the O’s last year -- will all begin at Triple-A Norfolk.
What’s something each team should feel worse about than they did at the start of camp?
Matheson: The health of the rotation
Thankfully, the Blue Jays prepared themselves for this by stockpiling starters, but they’ve needed that depth sooner than expected. Shane Bieber is lagging behind, building up slowly after some forearm fatigue, and José Berríos is going to attempt to build back up and pitch through a stress fracture in his right elbow, which isn’t ideal by any means. Then, late last week, the news came that Trey Yesavage would open the season on the IL with a right shoulder impingement. Eric Lauer likely steps back in as the No. 5, but the Blue Jays can’t afford another hit of bad news at this point.
Hoch: Bullpen choices
David Bednar has the closer’s role, and based upon what he did in the World Baseball Classic, the Yankees should have most ninth innings locked down. But I do wonder what the rest of the picture looks like. There’s high upside with Camilo Doval and Fernando Cruz, but also volatility. With at least two spots open at the back end, the Yanks went into the final week of camp debating names like Jake Bird, Brent Headrick and Cade Winquest. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few leads coughed up early. Chances are, their Opening Day bullpen will have several rotating pieces through the first few months.
Browne: Bullpen depth
This is the one area the Sox didn’t make significant upgrades to in the offseason, and you wonder if it will hurt them. Can Aroldis Chapman be as dominant at age 38 as he was at 37? Can Garrett Whitlock duplicate his breakout season from last year? Will Greg Weissert, Zack Kelly and Justin Slaten be able to be lockdown setup men? The fact that veterans Danny Coulombe and Tommy Kahnle were added so late in Spring Training indicates that Breslow shares similar concerns about his ‘pen.
Berry: Post-injury depth
A healthy spring is a good spring, and all things considered, the Rays have had a remarkably healthy camp. They won’t have high-leverage reliever Edwin Uceta (right shoulder soreness) on Opening Day, but he should be back soon. Shortstop Taylor Walls (rib tip syndrome, right oblique strain) will be out for about a month, but they can fall back on top prospect Carson Williams and utility infielder Ben Williamson. Maybe this won’t be a huge concern, but it’s fair to wonder how the Rays will handle injuries -- especially if they are dealt key blows like they experienced last season with McClanahan and Jonathan Aranda. With a few exceptions, their upper-level depth options didn’t necessarily stand out.
Rill: The status of Westburg
At first, Westburg was slow to get into Spring Training workouts because he had a tweaked right oblique. Then, he felt discomfort in his right elbow while rehabbing, with imaging later revealing he had a partial right UCL tear. After getting a platelet-rich plasma injection, the 27-year-old infielder has been ruled out through at least April. But even if he returns in May, the larger concern is his durability, as he’s missed time due to hand, back, hamstring, ankle, finger, oblique and elbow injuries since August 2024. When healthy, Westburg is one of the best hitters in Baltimore’s lineup. He just hasn’t been healthy enough.
What’s something you’re still wondering about as Opening Day approaches?
Matheson: Who will Kazuma Okamoto be in 2026?
The talent is there, but Okamoto’s adjustment from Japan to the big leagues may be the biggest variable left on this roster. This is where Bo Bichette’s offense needs to be replaced, and while Okamoto is fully capable of doing that, Toronto needs it to happen quickly. Okamoto spent time at the WBC with Team Japan, so he’s still in the process of getting acclimated to the Blue Jays, but early results have been extremely positive.
Hoch: When -- not if -- will Carlos Lagrange make an impact?
A month ago, I had Lagrange (Yankees' No. 2 prospect, No. 79 overall in MLB) penciled in to begin the year with Double-A Somerset, where he pitched 78 1/3 innings last year. The stuff was high-octane, but everyone said he was raw and needed more development time. That’s not what I saw this spring. He has improved his strike-throwing, controls the running game and -- oh yeah -- regularly exceeds 100 mph. He also seems to have the confidence and makeup you’d want. Austin Wells said he has "no doubt" Lagrange could help right now. So, will it be as a starter or a reliever, and when?
Browne: How will OF/DH rotation work?
The Red Sox have an embarrassment of riches in the outfield in Anthony, Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Abreu and Masataka Yoshida. Including the DH spot, there are just four spots available in the lineup for five everyday-caliber players. The real mystery is how to get Yoshida into the mix on even a semi-regular basis. In a perfect world, he would be the everyday DH like he was when healthy the past two years. But with the current roster alignment, Duran and Anthony are mostly splitting left-field duties, with the other likely to DH most of the time. Red Sox manager Alex Cora continues to say this logjam isn’t a problem but a luxury.
Berry: What will they get from the rest of their lineup?
The Rays can and should feel good about having Yandy Díaz, Aranda and Junior Caminero near the top of their lineup every day. The question going into Spring Training, which remains relevant as Opening Day approaches, was what they’ll get from the rest of the group. Jake Fraley, Cedric Mullins and Williamson have had good springs. Chandler Simpson has shown a willingness to bunt more to boost his on-base percentage. Williams made some real adjustments to cut down his strikeout rate. They’ll use plenty of platoons to maximize matchup opportunities. But will it be enough to support their three star hitters and pitching staff?
Rill: Is the bullpen strong enough for the O’s to be competitive?
The Orioles are banking on new closer Ryan Helsley returning to elite form now that he believes to have put his pitch-tipping issues from last year behind him. But there are a lot of question marks in the relief corps. Can converted starter Tyler Wells be a primary setup man? Can Yennier Cano return to his 2023 All-Star version? Can any of the left-handers (Keegan Akin, Dietrich Enns, Grant Wolfram) be trusted in high-leverage spots? Will any under-the-radar relievers break out? If too many of those questions get answered with a no, then this unit could have some trouble.
Way-too-early division race prediction
The five of us submitted our predicted end-of-season standings, with each place assigned points: 5 for first place, 4 for second, etc. Here’s how we voted:
- Yankees, 22 points
- Blue Jays, 19 points
- Red Sox, 16 points
- Orioles, 12 points
- Rays, 6 points