DUNEDIN, Fla. -- The Blue Jays’ rotation keeps taking on water and the club keeps plugging holes, but there’s a limit to everything.
Thursday brought the news that Trey Yesavage would open the season on the IL with a right shoulder impingement, joining José Berríos (right elbow stress fracture) and Shane Bieber (right forearm fatigue). Toronto still has five legitimate big league starters, but the depth has already been pushed far enough.
When Berríos went down, the fallout wasn’t as jarring. The Blue Jays still had six MLB-caliber starters then, which likely would have spilled over into the bullpen. This time, the impact on the Opening Day roster is more significant.
The rotation door is open for: Eric Lauer
Lauer has toed the line well, but he’s made it clear all camp that he wants to start and thinks he can help this team as a starter. It looks like he’s about to get his wish.
“He’s got a good chance, yes,” manager John Schneider said. “We’ve just got to figure out who is where and how they’re all feeling physically, but this is why you build up everyone who you have available for that rotation spot.”
Last year, Lauer saved this rotation, stepping in with 15 starts and a 3.77 ERA in those appearances, then looked even stronger in his relief outings around that. He’s a pending free agent, too, and in what could be the biggest opportunity of his career, why wouldn’t he want to hit the market as an established starter?
“Baseball has a way of working itself out, right?” Schneider said. “I think there will be a large part of the year, as guys start to come back and join the team -- whether it’s the rotation or the bullpen -- where we’ll just want to see who’s the best fit for those times. We’re comfortable with all of those guys being starters.”
The bullpen door cracks open for: Just about everyone
If Lauer had been bumped to the bullpen as the long man, there would have been room for just seven “true” relievers. Now that number is eight, a more traditional group with Lauer needed in the rotation, and it changes what the Blue Jays need from their bullpen.
“A little bit of length,” Schneider said. “There are going to be some guys we’ll ask to go multiple innings. However that fits best come Monday, we’ll figure that out.”
Let’s start with the five bullpen locks: Jeff Hoffman, Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers, Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty.
Braydon Fisher almost certainly needs to be part of that group, too, after an excellent rookie season, bringing the number to six.
Tommy Nance is out of options, which could give him an edge, and Angel Bastardo has impressed as a Rule 5 arm with plenty of upside at just 23 years old. The Blue Jays will also consider Spencer Miles (Rule 5 pick), Chase Lee, Connor Seabold, Josh Fleming and Jesse Hahn. Yariel Rodríguez hasn’t done himself any favors in limited spring action after being outrighted off the 40-man roster over the offseason, but he can quickly climb back onto the roster, too.
The next wave of rotation depth
Good front offices spend their days obsessing over what will happen if something else goes wrong. The Blue Jays did an excellent job of preparing themselves with depth, which has protected them well up to this point, but what if the coming days bring another piece of bad news?
Lazaro Estrada is the only other true starter on the 40-man roster, while No. 21 prospect (per MLB Pipeline) Adam Macko, who’s headed for more of a bulk role, quickly becomes an extremely important pitcher in this organization. Elsewhere, No. 6 prospect Gage Stanifer needs a bit of time in Triple-A, but Seabold and CJ Van Eyk can handle bulk innings if called upon.
This is what depth looks like for most big league clubs, more questions than answers. If anything, it’s an indication that the Blue Jays could remain actively involved in the market for depth starters as Opening Day approaches. Perhaps a veteran swingman would make more sense, giving Toronto an option with some length out of the bullpen early in the role Lauer was expected to occupy.
The Blue Jays have stayed one step ahead of this until now, but at this point, they can’t afford to spring another leak.