Which new free-agent deal looks best? Execs see 2 clear winners

4:04 AM UTC

Last offseason’s free-agent market was loaded with big names, with , and leading the way.

But were they the best signings of the offseason?

We posed that question to more than a dozen executives, asking which free-agent deals have been the most impactful through the first month of the 2026 season. Two names stood out above all others.

Dylan Cease, Blue Jays (6 votes)
Munetaka Murakami, White Sox (6 votes)
Pete Alonso, Orioles (1 vote)
Edwin Díaz, Dodgers (1 vote)
Foster Griffin, Nationals (1 vote)
Ryan O’Hearn, Pirates (1 vote)
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (1 vote)

and took very different paths to free agency.

Cease came with a strong big league résumé that included a pair of top-four Cy Young Award finishes and two down-ballot Most Valuable Player mentions. Murakami had a power-packed stat sheet from his seven seasons with the Yakult Swallows in Japan, though that was accompanied by plenty of questions regarding how his game would translate to the Majors.

Through the first 30-or-so games, both players have been well worth the investment for their respective clubs.

Cease was among the first big-name free agents to sign this winter, inking a seven-year, $210 million deal with the Blue Jays on Dec. 2. Even after posting a 4.55 ERA in 168 innings for the Padres last season – the second-highest full-season ERA of his career and his lowest inning total since 2021 – he landed the biggest contract given to a pitcher last offseason. The right-hander has been highly effective in 2026, posting a 3.05 ERA over seven starts with an AL-best 56 strikeouts in 38 1/3 innings.

“The Jays have been beat up in the rotation, but Cease and [Kevin] Gausman are holding it down for them,” an American League executive said.

“He’s pitching great,” a National League executive said of Cease. “He will be a big part of that club for many years.”

Cease entered Saturday ranked in the top 10 percent of the league in fastball velocity (97.9 mph), whiff percentage (38%), strikeout rate (35.5%) and barrel percentage (1.4%), all career bests for the 30-year-old.

“He looks like an ace,” an AL executive said.

“He’s showing he was worth it to be the highest-paid pitcher this offseason,” another AL exec added.

Murakami has answered most of the questions he brought with him to Chicago, entering Saturday with an MLB-high 13 home runs with 26 RBIs and a .967 OPS in his first 32 games with the White Sox. The 26-year-old slugger didn’t have the type of market some expected for a player with his credentials in Japan, signing a two-year, $34 million deal with the White Sox.

“Strong alignment of player and team,” an AL executive said. “He has been given the runway to play his game offensively and been as expected in the transition to the Majors with impressive power production.”

The one major flaw in Murakami’s game remains his swing-and-miss; he ranks in the bottom 5th percentile in both whiff percentage and strikeout rate, punching out in 46 of his first 141 plate appearances entering Saturday. But he’d also drawn an impressive 27 walks, ranking in the 98th percentile in walk rate and the 89th percentile in chase percentage.

“Much was made of his ability to hit velocity, but that hasn’t followed him so far,” an NL executive said. “Yeah, he punches a lot, but he walks a lot too; for the price, he may end up being the better part of .”

No player aside from Cease and Murakami received multiple votes, with five players each garnering one mention.

Although closer is on the injured list with an elbow injury that will keep him out until the second half, an NL executive believes his signing “strengthened the only weakness from the 2025 Dodgers.”

The Orioles signed to a five-year, $155 million contract, and while the first baseman is off to an uninspiring start (six homers and a .727 OPS in 33 games) for the Orioles (15-18), an AL executive viewed the signing as an important step for a Baltimore team that had largely sat out free agency under president of baseball operations Mike Elias.

“[Alonso] wasn’t the biggest name signed, but he’s the signing that most changed the ceiling of the team that made it,” the AL executive said.

Schwarber is off to another strong start, entering Saturday with an NL-high 11 home runs with a .937 OPS in his first 32 games after signing a five-year, $150 million contract to return to Philadelphia. Although the Phillies are wallowing in the NL East and have already made a change in the manager’s office, an NL executive pointed to the 33-year-old designated hitter as the best overall signing of the winter.

“It seems like many of the higher-profile signings aren’t going great so far,” the executive said. “It was critical for the Phillies to bring [Schwarber] back, both for his production and what he means in the clubhouse. He should be productive for a few more years, and the AAV [average annual value] and length of his deal are reasonable relative to some of his free-agent peers.”