DUNEDIN, Fla. -- This time last spring, José Berríos already felt “doubt” in his mind on the mound.
He didn’t feel right. On Monday afternoon, after throwing 2 2/3 innings in his spring debut, the Blue Jays' 4-3 loss to the Mets, Berríos cracked the door open a bit more on what he was really dealing with a year ago. The season ended with his first stint on the IL in the big leagues, but it began, Berríos says, with him feeling “doubt” in his elbow, which he pitched through all season.
Eventually, Berríos learned that this was linked to the biceps inflammation that landed him on the IL, but that’s in the past now. Monday felt more free for Berríos, finally back on the mound where he belongs.
“Today, I felt like I had nothing on my mind that I fear,” Berríos said. “I thank God that I’m back. I’m healthy.”
For a cold day in February, that’s a good enough start. Berríos threw 47 pitches in the game and got that up to 60 in the bullpen afterward, but all that matters in these early days is a clear mind and healthy body. The Blue Jays need Berríos to bounce back to round out a rotation that could be one of the best in baseball, and while 2025 didn’t go as planned, this is still the man who was Toronto’s Opening Day starter in three of the last four seasons.
"José is fully healthy. He's looked sharp," manager John Schneider said recently. "His stuff is back to where it was probably two years ago in terms of velocity and his breaking ball."
This is how Berríos can get back to who he’s been:
1. Strikeouts … it’s a fine line
This is all about Berríos giving himself a margin for error. The Blue Jays actively targeted swing-and-miss potential with Dylan Cease and Cody Ponce, just like they did with Kevin Gausman four years ago. Trey Yesavage fits that philosophy, too. Berríos is the outlier here, and while it can still work, it’s a much different conversation than we have with the other starters.
Look at Berríos’ last two seasons. In 2024, he had a strikeout rate of 7.2 K/9, but still had an excellent season because his control was tight and he pounded the zone. Last season, his strikeout rate sat at a similar number (7.5 K/9), but everything else was just a bit off. Starters who miss bats or throw 98 mph can still win with their "B" game, but that’s so much more challenging for a pitcher like Berríos.
Berríos has two options here. The simplest path to success is to get that strikeout rate back closer to 9.0 K/9. If not, he’ll need to be airtight in every other way.
2. The other obvious answer: Velocity
Berríos needs to have his fastball and slurve working together. When those two pitches are living in harmony, everything else makes sense. His velocities took a step back in 2025, though, and much like Berríos’ swing-and-miss numbers, that’s a fine line for a pitcher like him.
2025 velocities
Sinker: 92.2 mph (down 1.2)
Four-seamer: 93 mph (down 1.1)
Slurve: 82.5 (down 0.7)
Changeup: 85.2 (up 0.4)
Again, if Berríos was touching Gausman’s velocities, this is less of an issue -- but the gap between 94 mph and 92 can be the difference between life and death in the big leagues. Berríos’ ERA won’t matter much in Spring Training, but some of his pitching metrics truly will. Monday, there was a lot of 91-92 mph on the board, but that’s on a cold, windy afternoon in February. Keep an eye on his velocities and strikeout numbers as the weather warms and we get closer to Opening Day.
3. Health and sustainability
The Blue Jays need Berríos healthy in September and October, too.
“I’m getting better with my lower body. That way, my upper body doesn’t work too much,” Berríos said. “I want to use my whole body the right way. That way my arm won’t suffer too much during the season. I’ve been working on my kinetic sequence, trying to be better with that every day. Today, I felt that way. I feel healthy.”
Again, this is a good start. Berríos is one of the most impressive pitchers in the league, physically. That’s why he’s been able to do this so consistently for a decade, and it’s why the Blue Jays believe he can do it again.