TORONTO -- Just as we all predicted in spring, the Blue Jays’ No. 5 job could come down to Max Scherzer and Spencer Miles in early June.
That’s why they play the games, and a wildly unpredictable start has landed the Blue Jays here. Scherzer, on the IL since late April with right forearm and left ankle injuries, reappeared with the Blue Jays on Monday in Toronto and threw a 22-pitch bullpen, which went well. He’ll throw again Wednesday at Yankee Stadium, and if he wakes up with no aches, the comeback is on.
Scherzer would still likely need a couple of rehab starts, but with Shane Bieber still building up slowly and José Berríos set to undergo right elbow surgery on Wednesday, the Blue Jays will take any good news they can get. That No. 5 spot in the rotation is set to come around again Thursday in the Bronx, and while the Blue Jays have danced around danger so far, it’s no long-term plan.
First variable: Who is Max Scherzer when he’s healthy?
Let’s envision a world in which Scherzer is healthy and ready to roll in early to mid-June. Let’s also assume that Patrick Corbin is still holding strong to his rotation spot by then, continuing what has been one of Toronto’s better stories this season. Betting on two things going right seems awfully bold in this Blue Jays season, but we can dream.
Over five starts this season, Scherzer owns a 9.64 ERA with 10 strikeouts and eight walks over 18 2/3 innings. How much of that was related to his forearm tendinitis and ankle injury, which he felt was making him alter his mechanics?
We won’t know the answer until we see Scherzer back on the mound. Yes, his moments for Toronto in the 2025 postseason were memorable, but the regular season saw Scherzer post a 5.19 ERA over 17 starts. The Blue Jays need healthy starters, but they also need effective starters. Manager John Schneider and the Blue Jays still believe that the future Hall of Famer can be that.
Second variable: Who is Spencer Miles by then?
Miles’ rise has been a product of the injuries around him, but the 25-year-old deserves a ton of credit for how he has handled this. Miles is a Rule 5 Draft pick who, due to arm and back surgeries over the years, had barely pitched professionally and never above Single-A. He looks like a big leaguer already, but don’t let that distract you from just how stunning this is.
Miles has looked great in this new bulk role, first throwing three scoreless innings on May 10, then 3 2/3 scoreless on Saturday, getting his pitch count up to 56. Schneider thinks that could eventually be pushed to 80, but given how little Miles has pitched professionally, they need to be cautious.
“With his history, too, you don’t want to move it back and forth too much,” Schneider said. “If we’re going to do it, we’ll try to be consistent with it and not say on Wednesday, ‘Hey, you’re in the ‘pen if we need you for an inning,’ then you have him getting hot. We’re trying to be a bit more consistent and strategic with him. If it’s an opener, great. If it’s not, great.”
Something about Miles just fits, though. He has said and done all of the right things. Breaking through as a Rule 5 pick who has come out of nowhere says as much about Miles’ mind as it does his right arm, handling all of the extra “stuff” that comes with this sudden rise.
“His demeanor serves him well,” Schneider said. “He’s not expecting or demanding too much. It’s just, ‘OK, I’m here to do what you guys need.’ His demeanor on the mound, that was part of him breaking camp for us. You have stuff, but how are you going to navigate certain situations?”
The Blue Jays think there’s a starter’s repertoire in there. It would take some time to build up his innings, but that’s doable, and Miles knows the ins and outs of a starter’s routine from his time starting in college. If there really is a starter in there, they’ve struck gold.