BOSTON -- Is it finally time for Shane Bieber to make his 2026 debut? Well, it depends.
Bieber made his fifth rehab start on Wednesday afternoon with Triple-A Buffalo, throwing 80 pitches over five innings. The line wasn’t sharp, with five runs on seven hits, four walks and a pair of homers, but the most important step Wednesday was Bieber’s workload.
At this point, Bieber can be considered “built up” and comfortably past the right forearm and elbow issues he’s been dealing with. He’s moved from 59 pitches to 62 and 80 over his past three starts, which should set him up to push past 90 in his next outing if that comes in the big leagues. The first question that needs answering in this situation, though, is just how urgently the Blue Jays need Bieber back and how patient they can be here. Is there time to give Bieber one more start in Triple-A to fine-tune things after an uncharacteristic four walks, or are the Blue Jays satisfied with what they’ve seen?
“I think the pitch count is enough,” John Schneider said. “He’s going to meet us in Chicago. He’ll throw his normal bullpen and we’ll talk through it with him. I haven’t watched it back. I know there were some walks and some homers, but we’ll see how he feels about competing. In terms of workload and build-up, I think he’s where he should be. We’ll figure out what’s next.”
Bieber is a control artist who had walked just one batter over his previous four rehab outings, so this one is best chalked up to an outlier for now. Beyond Bieber’s workload, his velocities were also encouraging, looking similar to what he’s worked with throughout his big league career.
Bieber’s fastball averaged 91.8 mph and touched 93 mph. Add in the adrenaline of an MLB environment, and those numbers should be just fine for Bieber, who has always relied more on pinpoint control and keeping hitters off-balance than overwhelming them with velocity.
“I think there will be a bit of an extra gear in the big leagues as opposed to rehabbing in the Minor Leagues,” Schneider said. “With Shane, it’s always about executing. Going back to last year, coming off Tommy John, usually the execution part is the thing that comes later. I think he did a good job of that and he’s probably going through a little bit of that now.”
When Bieber returns, whether that’s next time through the Blue Jays’ rotation or one more turn, something’s got to give. Finally, Toronto will have more starting pitchers than rotation spots after a season defined by injuries, including the losses of José Berríos, Cody Ponce and Bowden Francis for the season.
Blue Jays' rotation when Bieber returns
1. Dylan Cease
2. Kevin Gausman
3. Trey Yesavage
4. Shane Bieber
5. Patrick Corbin
That’s a fine top four, a group that most organizations would be envious of. The Blue Jays need to sort out the No. 5 job long-term, though. It felt like Wednesday night would be a key piece to that puzzle with Max Scherzer starting, but Scherzer was placed on the IL just hours prior to first pitch with back spasms, opening the door for rookie Chad Dallas to return.
This leaves the No. 5 job to Corbin for the time being, kicking that potential “competition” between him and Scherzer down the road a bit longer. Surely, Bieber will have returned by then.
There’s so much at stake for Bieber here on an individual level, too. He’s a pending free agent following the 2026 season, and with three-plus months of healthy baseball in front of him, the 31-year-old has an opportunity to establish himself as one of the top pitchers on the market. The 2020 American League Cy Young Award winner has been one of the best right-handers in the AL when he’s been healthy, and if he can prove that he’s fully past the forearm and elbow issues that delayed his start to the 2026 season, teams will be lining up for Bieber this winter.