MILWAUKEE -- Two games, two runs. That’s the difference in this World Series, a stage where the minuscule can be massive.
Going into Game 3 on Monday night at Tropicana Field, the Brewers are two wins away from a franchise-first title. And the closely contested nature of their victories in Games 1 and 2 somehow made those wins feel even more psychologically significant than if they had come out and pummeled their opponent.
Because in heading home in an 0-2 hole with a minus-2 Series run differential, the Rays knew they hadn’t just been beaten by the Brewers, but also by themselves. They’ve run into unnecessary outs and made uncharacteristic mistakes in the field.
“Against Milwaukee, if you give up outs, they're gonna do that, they're gonna use that against you,” Rays star Junior Caminero said. “That's what happens.”
The Rays know they have to clean it up or else run the risk of being swept away.
The Brewers head south smelling blood, and, while the Trop obviously won’t contain nearly as many Brewer backers as American Family Field did, many Milwaukeeans will be making the trek to the Tampa Bay area in pursuit of witnessing history.
They have every reason to believe this brand of Brewers baseball -- the one that came back from 4-0 deficits in both Game 4 of the NLCS against the Dodgers and Game 2 of this World Series -- is the one that’s going to produce a long-awaited crown.
“As long as there's game left, we have a chance, and I think we've all bought into that,” said rookie shortstop Cooper Pratt, whose seventh-inning RBI single was the deciding blow in Game 2. “We're never out of it, and anytime there's still innings on the board and we still got at-bats, we still have a chance, especially with this bullpen and these guys, man, it's special.”
Of the 57 teams to take a 2-0 lead in the World Series, 46 (80.7%) have won the Fall Classic, including 45 of 55 in best-of-sevens.
So the Rays will try to flip the historical script, similar to how they did in overcoming a 2-1 deficit in the ALCS against the Guardians by winning three in a row. Given the styles of these squads and the way Games 1 and 2 went down, it’s not at all inconceivable to suggest they could go on such a streak again.
But history tells us it has to start here, in Game 3, where, helpfully, the Rays will send their ALCS MVP “Fastball” Freddy Peralta to the hill opposite Robert Gasser. Once the ace of the Brewers, Peralta will be tasked with stopping the runaway train they’ve become.
Two games, two runs. Funny how a minuscule edge can feel so massive. The Rays have to chip away at it here.
When is the game and how can I watch it?
Game 3 is Monday at 8 p.m. ET and airs nationally on FOX and FOX Deportes with streaming on FOX One.
All series are available in the US on MLB.TV with authentication to a participating Pay TV provider. Games also are available live internationally, although not in Canada. Sportsnet is MLB's exclusive English language broadcaster in Canada for every postseason game, while TVA Sports will be covering the entire AL postseason and the World Series in French and Broadcaster RDS will cover the entire NL postseason in French.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Rays: RHP Freddy Peralta
Key Stat: 7-0, 0.89 ERA in his last 10 games (including nine starts) since Aug. 26
Peralta didn’t get the chance to pitch against his former Brewers teammates at American Family Field in the World Series -- or hasn’t gotten the opportunity yet, anyway -- but he'll take the mound at Tropicana Field in a pivotal Game 3. Peralta is riding high with the Rays, looking every bit like the “Fastball Freddy” who dominated atop Milwaukee’s rotation for years.
He rediscovered his front-line form in late August, specifically citing an Aug. 21 start against the Orioles as the turning point, and he’s been electric ever since.
Peralta has been especially good at the Rays’ home dome, recording a 1.45 ERA with 31 strikeouts and 14 walks in 37 1/3 innings over seven starts at The Trop since joining Tampa Bay at the Trade Deadline. The team gave him a little extra rest after his third and final appearance of the ALCS, hoping it will give them the best version of Peralta against the Brewers in Game 3.
Brewers: LHP Robert Gasser
Key Stat: 2-0 with a 1.51 ERA in eight appearances since Aug. 26, regular season and postseason
Gasser began the season at Triple-A Nashville but pitched his way to starts in the clinching Game 4 of the NLDS against the Padres and in Game 3 of the NLCS against the Dodgers with a finishing kick that began Aug. 26 at Citi Field in New York, when Gasser took over for Dustin May after the right-hander was struck by a comebacker on the very first pitch. Something clicked, and Gasser rode his high-quality sweeper and growing confidence to a spot alongside Jacob Misiorowski and Logan Henderson in Milwaukee’s super young starting rotation. He’s allowed one run in nine innings over his two postseason starts so far.
What are the starting lineups?
Rays: With the left-handed Gasser on the mound, it would make sense for the Rays to roll out a lineup with more of their right-handed platoon options to start the game. It could look something like this.
1. Yandy Díaz, DH
2. Jonathan Aranda, 1B
3. Ryan Vilade, RF
4. Junior Caminero, 3B
5. Chandler Simpson, LF
6. Jonny DeLuca, CF
7. Ben Williamson, 2B
8. Nick Fortes, C
9. Taylor Walls, SS
Brewers: The Brewers kept the same lineup for each of the first two games of this World Series after playing around with the top of their lineup after leadoff man Jackson Chourio this postseason, tinkering with every spot from second to fifth based on the matchups and who’s hot and who’s not. It’s been Christian Yelich in the three-hole in Games 1 and 2, so we will roll with that again for Game 3 against a familiar foe in Peralta. They both joined the Brewers in 2018 and were teammates until the Brewers traded Peralta in January.
1. Jackson Chourio, LF
2. Jake Bauers, 1B
3. Christian Yelich, DH
4. William Contreras, C
5. Brice Turang, 2B
6. Garrett Mitchell, CF
7. Cooper Pratt SS
8. Sal Frelick, RF
9. David Hamilton, 3B
How will the bullpens line up after the starter?
Rays: The Rays should be rested and ready after Sunday’s off-day. Expect everyone to be available, from closer Bryan Baker all the way down. Tampa Bay has been using Baker for single-inning bursts in save situations or game-ending scenarios. Cam Booser has emerged as the club’s top left-handed option, while Tyler Wells is capable of working more than one inning in a setup role. Kevin Kelly tends to draw the toughest right-handed matchups, although it’s been a rough stretch for him. They gave little-used arms like Steven Matz, Garrett Cleavinger and Cole Sulser some work in Game 1, and Matz was called upon again in Game 2, so they shouldn’t be rusty if needed during this potential stretch of three straight games. The question is whether they’ll use Griffin Jax out of the bullpen or save him for a potential Game 4 start.
Brewers: Rinse and repeat: It was Aaron Ashby (no runs in 15 2/3 innings this postseason) and Abner Uribe carrying much of the load again in Game 2, when Ashby locked down a five-out save that gave closer Trevor Megill the night off. The Brewers are the first team since the save became a stat in 1969 to have eight saves in a single postseason. Altogether, Brewers relievers have a 1.24 ERA through the first 10 games of this postseason.
Any injuries of note?
Rays: Starter Shane McClanahan was ruled out for the postseason, although he will be ready to go next spring. Otherwise, nothing new.
Brewers: The biggest question mark for the Brewers on the eve of the World Series was Brandon Woodruff, and that remains the case as he did not appear in Games 1 or 2 after being added to the World Series roster. Will he stay healthy if he pitches? Will he perform in his first outing since July 4? He spent the past two nights seeking advice from Ashby, since it was Woodruff’s first time in the bullpen since 2018.
Who is hot and who is not?
Rays: The top of the lineup looked hot in the first inning of Game 2, then everyone looked distinctly “not” the rest of the way. But maybe it’s a good sign that Aranda, Simpson, Caminero and Hicks looked sharp coming out of the gate and that DeLuca picked up two hits. It was Hicks’ first moment in the spotlight offensively, and he is critical to Tampa Bay’s lineup. It’s been a struggle for Victor Mesa Jr., who is batting just .162 with a .487 OPS this month, and Ben Williamson is just 1-for-12 so far this postseason.
Brewers: Chourio tallied two more hits and two more stolen bases to become the third player under the age of 23 with multiple hits and multiple steals in a postseason game, joining Ty Cobb in Game 3 of the 1908 World Series and Elvis Andrus in Game 2 of the 2010 ALCS. … Contreras’ two hits made him the leader across baseball in this postseason with 15. Only two players, including his older brother Willson and the Yankees' Ben Rice, posted a better OPS in this postseason than William’s 1.135, but William has played 10 games to Willson’s two.
Anything else fans might want to know?
• This will be the first World Series game at Tropicana Field since Game 2 of the 2008 Fall Classic on Oct. 23, 2008, which was also the first World Series victory in Tampa Bay’s franchise history. The ‘08 Series ended in Philadelphia without returning to The Trop, and the 2020 Fall Classic was played at Globe Life Field in Arlington.
• The Rays have not yet revealed any details regarding their plans for the pregame festivities for Games 3, 4 and 5. Expect them to focus on the finest moments in franchise history, including the prior AL pennant-winning clubs in 2008 and ‘20.
• With Uribe earning the win in Game 2, a reliever has been credited with the win in eight of the Brewers’ nine victories so far this postseason. They have matched the 2015 Royals for the most wins by relievers in a single postseason.