What are the chances last year's All-Star starters can repeat?

June 13th, 2024

Read our story on the balloting format, which includes two phases of fan voting to determine the All-Star starters.

A great first half doesn't guarantee an All-Star selection, much less a start. Deserving players will always outnumber lineup and roster spots. The potential to earn a start courtesy of the fan vote becomes an even greater challenge when you consider all of the potential factors -- team performance, home-field advantage and recent postseason success, among other things, can all wildly swing a vote, under the right circumstances.

All of that to start one All-Star Game -- let alone two in a row. Unsurprisingly, for the most part, only the most consistent and well-regarded players have a chance to start consecutive All-Star Games, and even then, the odds are stacked against them.

So, with that in mind, where do last year's All-Star starters, as selected by the fans, stand in 2024? Here's a breakdown.

(All stats entering Wednesday's games)

^Player won 2023 fan vote but was unable to play in All-Star Game

Leading the charge

Aaron Judge, NYY (AL OF^)
As of the date of publication, Judge has about as clear a path to starting as any player can have. No evidence remains of his slow start to the season -- he now leads all of baseball in home runs (25), RBIs (62), on-base percentage (.437) and slugging (.712) -- and that's before you factor in the Yankees' record (48-21) and how eager fans should be to see him in action in Texas after he missed the 2023 All-Star Game with a toe sprain.

Mookie Betts, LAD (NL OF)
Betts started in the outfield for the National League last year but is on the ballot as a shortstop this time around -- he'd actually be the first player in MLB history to start an All-Star Game at both positions in his career (although Fernando Tatis Jr., eligible in the outfield, could immediately become the second). Betts has slowed down after his amazing April, but his numbers are still sparkling (.309/.412/.506, 161 OPS+), and at the moment he looks poised to coast into his sixth appearance as an All-Star Game starter.

Shohei Ohtani, LAD (AL DH)
Baseball's most eye-popping talent now has the voting power of the first-place Dodgers' fan base behind him, but he isn't likely to need it, given the year he's having (.312/.384/.581, 16 HR). That said, Marcell Ozuna is also having a great year, leading the National League in home runs (18), RBIs (55) and OPS (.994).

In the mix

Marcus Semien, TEX (AL 2B)
Generally speaking, if you want to be a fan-voted All-Star starter, it's a good idea to come in as either a) a reigning World Series champion or b) a member of the host city's home team. Semien is both, and he's playing well on both sides of the ball. The complicating factor in his quest to repeat -- which, at the moment, is Jose Altuve -- could also be a potential benefit to him, given the rekindled rivalry after last year's ALCS.

Corey Seager, TEX (AL SS)
This is likely to be the race this year. Although hometown favorite Seager is playing great baseball -- hitting .271 with 13 home runs and 30 RBIs even while recovering from and nursing injuries -- he has early MVP candidates Gunnar Henderson and Bobby Witt Jr. to fend off.

Freddie Freeman, LAD (NL 1B)
Average-wise, he isn't having a typical "Freddie Freeman" kind of season, but just about anyone would be thrilled to sport a .297/.401/.498 line. The issue for Freeman is the presence of full-time first baseman Bryce Harper (.278/.390/.529, 15 HR, 45 RBIs).

Luis Arraez, SD (NL 2B)
He's MLB's best contact hitter and on a much better team than the one he started the year with, but even while leading the Majors in batting average, he has a lot of legitimate challengers -- Ketel Marte, Nolan Gorman and Brice Turang all have strong statistical cases, and Bryson Stott has the power of the Phillies fanbase in the midst of a hot streak behind him.

Fighting through injuries

Josh Jung, TEX (AL 3B)
Jung, on the ballot as a DH, didn't get through four games in 2024 before the bad luck injury bug bit him again in the form of a hit by pitch, and although he is nearing a rehab assignment on his way back from his broken right wrist, he's unlikely to have accumulated enough playing time by the time voting ends to repeat.

Mike Trout, LAA (AL OF^)
Trout, as you'll likely remember, got off to a roaring start this year, hitting 10 home runs in his first 29 games. Then he tore the meniscus in his left knee. Just in the last week the Angels confirmed that even without setbacks, he's nowhere near his return, making a repeat selection extremely unlikely.

Sean Murphy, ATL (NL C)
Murphy was sidelined just seven innings into the season, straining his left oblique on a swing on Opening Day in Philadelphia. He made his return on May 27 and looks like he'll need more time to settle in before he can recapture his 2023 form -- he's gone just 5-for-38 with two extra-base hits in his first 11 games.

Ronald Acuña Jr., ATL (NL OF)
This is just, for lack of a better phrase, the best place to put Acuña, who is no longer on the ballot after tearing his left ACL last month.

An uphill battle ahead

Jonah Heim, TEX (AL C)
Heim, like the rest of his Rangers teammates, is going to get a boost in the fan vote as a hometown player and reigning World Series champion, but his current numbers (.242/.284/.353) pale in comparison to those that got him a start in Seattle last year (.282/.338/.474).

Yandy Díaz, TB (AL 1B)
Even with the PR bonus that comes with being the reigning batting champ combined the currently wide-open race at first base in the AL, Díaz's power numbers have taken quite a hit in 2024 -- his OPS is down nearly 250 points.

Randy Arozarena, TB (AL OF)
Arozarena's production is starting to pick up again, but hitting .158 through the end of May will usually put one completely out of All-Star consideration.

Orlando Arcia, ATL (NL SS)
The Braves' magic has yet to make an appearance in 2024, and Arcia has been part of the overall slow start, with a .232/.261/.378 line thus far. With Betts now on the ballot at short, it'd take a monumental effort, even with the voting power of Braves fans.

Nolan Arenado, STL (NL 3B)
In the midst of another down year, Arenado is working on a career-low .376 SLG and has just six home runs, numbers that just won't stand up to those of Alec Bohm or Ryan McMahon.

Corbin Carroll, AZ (NL OF)
There are sophomore slumps and then there are sophomore slumps. Carroll's -- especially considering the heights he reached in his rookie campaign -- has been especially brutal. Even as he's started to recover, he's still hitting just .213/.300/.309 with an OPS+ of 78.

J.D. Martinez, NYM (NL DH)
As established, the National League is probably going to start a Dodgers DH for the second consecutive season -- it just won't be Martinez in back-to-back years. Considering his late start to the season -- he only signed with the Mets on March 23 and joined the big league club on April 26 -- his chances of earning a start over Ohtani are remote.