PHILADELPHIA -- A couple of starts ago, all eyes were on Zack Wheeler's back foot.
On Tuesday night at Citizens Bank Park, all eyes will be on his right arm.
Wheeler will take the mound against the Marlins in search of his first victory since July 12. Of his past five starts, the only one that ended in a Phillies victory came in his Aug. 2 outing in Baltimore -- a start in which he pitched only two innings before a lengthy rain delay ended his day.
It's been a weird stretch for Wheeler.
In early July, he appeared to be as locked in as he's been all season. Wheeler racked up double-digit strikeouts in three consecutive starts, including a 14-K outing on July 7 in Cincinnati. He followed that up with 10 strikeouts over six scoreless innings in Detroit.
In three starts from July 7-21, Wheeler had a 1.35 ERA over 20 innings while recording 33 strikeouts to just two walks.
But then came that concerning outing on July 27 in Miami. Wheeler gave up five runs -- including a pair of homers -- over just three innings. His fastball averaged just 93.5 mph, down significantly from his season average.
The velocity has returned over his next few outings, but his usual dominance has not. After that rain-shortened outing on Aug. 2, Wheeler threw a season-high 116 pitches on Aug. 7 against the Blue Jays. He allowed four runs off seven hits and a season-high five walks in 5 1/3 innings.
Last Wednesday in St. Louis, Wheeler was cruising early, but unraveled in a four-run fifth inning.
Overall, Wheeler has a 7.63 ERA in his past four starts. That's his highest over any four-start stretch as a Phillie -- and the second-highest over any distinct four-game span in his entire career. He topped out at an 11.48 ERA over four starts with the Mets from June 13-July 8, 2017.
So what's been going wrong?
"I don’t know," Wheeler said after his last outing. "I just need to be better."
The confusion is understandable, considering the numbers don't really point to one obvious issue.
That Miami outing aside, Wheeler's velo numbers have been mostly fine. His fastball velocity hasn't quite returned to where it was last season pre-surgery, but it is right in line with where it sat in 2024 -- arguably his best season. His other numbers -- whiff rate, chase rate, average exit velocity, etc. -- have remained very similar to what they were earlier in the season.
"It’s a frustrating day just in general," Wheeler said in St. Louis. "Made some good pitches, and they just put the bat on the ball. It’s just one of those games that you’ve kind of got to forget, learn what you learn and just go forward."
Wheeler might be onto something there.
Take a look at his "expected" stats -- numbers that are essentially based on the quality of contact he's allowed -- during this rough patch.
Opponents are hitting .308 against him over the past four games, but their expected batting average is just .234. Similarly, their .569 slugging percentage is 219 points higher than the .350 expected slugging percentage.
Just how unusual is that?
Wheeler's 219-point difference is the highest among any of the 148 pitchers who have faced at least 50 batters since this stretch began on July 27.
At the end of the day, the underlying metrics ultimately mean nothing if they don't begin to translate into actual results. But given Wheeler's track record and the lack of any alarming data, the Phillies remain confident this is nothing more than a blip in the midst of an otherwise typical Wheeler season.
"I’m a little out of whack right now," Wheeler said. "I’ve just got to get it figured out and come back being more sharp."