Brubaker evolving right in front of Pirates' eyes

July 14th, 2022

MIAMI -- There’s a reality of which all pitchers are aware. On any given day, the feel for a pitch may be non-existent. There’s no quick fix; pitchers, generally, have it or they don’t. From here, there are two paths to take: be stubborn or adapt. In the past, JT Brubaker fell into the former camp. Now, he’s embracing the latter. 

In his final start of the first half, Brubaker orchestrated arguably the best outing of his career in the Pirates’ 5-4, extra-inning loss to the Marlins on Wednesday at loanDepot park, throwing seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. He held Miami in check by adapting to the whims of the game. Brubaker is evolving in real time -- an evolution that’s fueling his emergence. 

“I felt like last year … if I didn't have something, I kept throwing it instead of throwing what I have that day and then trying to go back and find it,” Brubaker said. “To be out there not searching for it is definitely something I've learned.”

Brubaker’s ability to adjust on the fly, to take what the game gives him, has been one of the factors that has fueled his two-month stretch of excellence. Since May, he has a 3.42 ERA across 73 2/3 innings. On the season as a whole, Brubaker has a 4.02 ERA and 3.73 FIP, both of which continue to steadily trend upwards.

Wins Above Replacement isn’t the end all, be all, but for Brubaker, the stat neatly tells a story of how well he has pitched this season.

In Brubaker’s first season, he posted a 0.7 fWAR across 47 1/3 innings. In his second season, he posted a 0.3 fWAR across 124 1/3 innings. Entering play, Brubaker had a 1.2 fWAR across 87 innings this season -- a number that will only increase with Wednesday's outing.

Brubaker’s repertoire has primarily consisted of his sinker, slider and curveball in recent weeks, but Wednesday, the right-hander condensed his pitch mix even further. Of the 99 pitches that Brubaker threw to the Marlins, 88 pitches were either sinkers (52) or sliders (36).

Brubaker admitted that he felt “a little uncomfortable” in the first inning because he didn’t have a great feel for any of his pitches. He knew the sinker was effective, though, so he leaned heavily on that pitch in the first couple frames. In the first three innings, 32 of his 54 pitches (59.3 percent) were sinkers. As the game progressed, Brubaker mixed in a couple more curveballs, most of which were thrown from the fourth inning onwards to provide a different look.

“We see him go out with his stuff, and he pitches off of what he has that night, which is definitely an evolution for a pitcher,” manager Derek Shelton said.

The only real trouble Brubaker found himself in came in the bottom of the fourth inning when the Marlins put runners on first and second with no outs, but Brubaker induced a smoothly turned inning-ending double play to escape trouble. Josh VanMeter backhanded Nick Fortes’ grounder up the middle, then shovel-passed the ball to Oneil Cruz. Pittsburgh’s rookie shortstop received the ball, spun for balance -- and a little flavor -- and fired to an awaiting Yoshi Tsutsugo. The jam had been escaped.

“You always have that mentality, one pitch away,” Brubaker said.

From then on, Brubaker was perfect. He retired every batter that he faced after that and did so with a palpable aggression and tempo. In the sixth and seventh innings, in particular, once Brubaker received the ball, he was ready to deliver his next pitch.

“I think he found himself in a groove and a really good rhythm and went right after guys,” Shelton said.

Brubaker hasn’t been the only member of the rotation finding his groove. Just two nights prior, Mitch Keller pitched a gem of his own, completing seven innings for the first time in his career as he allowed just one run. Like Brubaker, Keller has found himself adapting to the demands of the game, of his feel for pitches.

“The fact that they're able to continue to grow and learn how to use their pitch mix so they're able to go deeper into games, it's definitely a positive side,” Shelton said.