What's real and what's not in the AL Central

April 25th, 2019

No one has run away with the American League Central as the beginning of May approaches, but the Twins have made the most of their start. The Indians, who have won three consecutive division titles, have been bitten by the injury bug.

There have been several things that have opened eyes within the division. Here are a few trends each club can continue to expect going forward -- and what early trends won't last.

Indians

What's real: The starting rotation's strikeout rate. The Tribe was expected to have one of the most dominant rotations in baseball entering the season and although Mike Clevinger (upper back strain) was placed on the injured list, the starters still lead all other staffs in strikeouts per nine innings (11.62 as of Tuesday). After a season of having four starters fan over 200 batters, this trend will likely not fade away.

What's not: Jose Ramirez's offensive struggles. There's been much concern from Indians fans regarding Ramirez's performance at the plate since the end of last season. Yes, he's gotten off to a slow start, owning a wRC+ of 22 and a 24 OPS+ through his first 21 games, but with Francisco Lindor back in the lineup to help him out a bit, along with Ramirez's track record in the months of June (.299 average, .892 OPS) and July (.306 average, .910 OPS), it's too early to assume this trend will continue.

Royals

What’s real: Hunter Dozier’s breakout season. The Royals saw Dozier emerge defensively and at the plate at the end of 2018, and he has carried that into this season. Through Wednesday, Dozier had a 1.106 OPS and a .324 average with seven home runs and 12 RBIs. And what has really impressed the club is how hard he is hitting the ball, even on his outs. His average exit velocity of 95.5 ranks ninth in the Majors. “He is strong and he is faster than you might think,” manager Ned Yost said. “He is really coming into his own.”

What’s not: The Royals talked all during Spring Training about having a better plate approach with two strikes and cutting down on strikeouts. But after Sunday’s club-record 20-strikeout game against the Yankees, Kansas City has 217 strikeouts on the season, well on pace to shatter its all-time mark of 1,309 in 2018. The Royals also are hitting .151 with two strikes, second worst in the American League. “We certainly have to work on that,” Yost said. “We’re better than that and those numbers will improve.”

Tigers

What’s real: Matthew Boyd’s strikeouts. No, he probably can’t maintain a K/9 rate of 11.2, but his slider has become the legit out pitch he has been seeking, and forms a nice combination with his fastball and curveball. His strikeout rate took a good jump last season so the trend is there for him to average a strikeout per inning or better.

What’s not: Shane Greene’s save pace. The closer saved each of the Tigers' first 10 wins thanks to a bevy of close games and enough off-days to keep him relatively fresh. That won’t continue, and manager Ron Gardenhire is already sounding concerns about Greene's workload, opening up opportunities for Joe Jimenez and others to get a chance every now and then.

Twins

What's real: Byron Buxton's emergence at the plate. Armed with a simplified swing, plenty of swagger and confidence in the clubhouse, and 21 more pounds on his frame, Buxton's long-awaited breakout appears to be in full swing with an MLB-leading 12 doubles. His 93.5 mph average exit velocity is in the top 8 percent among Major League hitters and his whiff rate is the lowest it has ever been, thanks in part to a much-improved contact rate on breaking pitches.

What's not: Marwin Gonzalez's .492 OPS. The multi-positional Gonzalez has had a slow start at the plate while manning the hot corner. Statcast metrics show that Gonzalez, who has seen the highest rate of breaking balls in his career this season, is starting to elevate the ball more effectively over the last two weeks, lowering his high ground-ball rate from the start of the season.

White Sox

What’s real: Yoan Moncada’s offense. Even during his 2018 struggles, featuring 217 strikeouts, Moncada understood development was an extended process. He has benefited from a full season in the Majors, as well as a move to third base, where his defensive responsibilities are more instinctive. But Moncada’s more aggressive approach earlier in the count has been a great boon, as the talented young player who topped the Majors in called third strikes in ’18 has only two in ’19.

What’s not: Jose Abreu’s slow start. The first baseman has hit with the steady production of an elite middle-of-the-order presence whenever he’s been healthy during his six-year run on the South Side. So, his average below .230 and his slugging percentage in the low .400s probably won’t last. Abreu has expanded the strike zone a little bit in the early going, but then again, he has dealt with slow April starts in the past and pushed through to put up impressive numbers.