Previewing the Twins' title defense in the new season

March 24th, 2024

This story was excerpted from Do-Hyoung Park’s Twins Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

Enough hypotheticals about what would happen if Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis can be healthy together. These Twins want to be done with hypotheticals and show that they can actually realize that potential.

“I don’t want to talk about it; I want to show you guys,” Correa said. “We want to give you guys a lot to write about and a lot of good stories to tell.”

That never actually happened at any point last year, when the Twins finished fifth in the AL in runs despite Buxton and Correa never being at full strength, and Lewis limited to 58 games by injuries. Still, the Twins won the AL Central by double-digit games and snapped their 18-game playoff losing streak.

They return essentially that entire lineup in a similarly weak division, with the potential for more on offense -- though there are more questions with regards to their starting pitching depth as they enter the season as favorites to repeat.

What needs to go right: Any semblance of consistent health from the “Big Three”

There’s enormous variance in the Minnesota lineup’s potential outcomes this season. If Buxton, Correa and Lewis are healthy and playing up to their incredible group potential, this could legitimately be one of the most dangerous offenses in the AL.

And, as we all know, it’s also entirely feasible that one, two or all three are hurt and/or playing well below that level, as was the case for most of last season.

The reality will almost certainly end up somewhere in between -- but where on that spectrum these three collectively fall will have a significant say in the Twins’ fate this year, especially if they’re playing in October.

Great unknown: What does Chris Paddack have in the tank?

Not only will Paddack need to show that he has, indeed, bounced back from a second Tommy John surgery, but the Twins will also really be counting on him to do so. With the departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, the Twins will be back-filling with Paddack and Louie Varland -- with not a ton of depth behind them.

The Twins will expect steps forward from Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, but will also need Paddack to tap into the upside they sought when they traded away Taylor Rogers on Opening Day 2022. The team probably won’t allow the fewest runs in the AL again -- but Paddack’s health and performance will be a significant factor in helping it not take too big of a step back.

Team MVP will be … Correa

Yes, there was plenty of temptation to put either Lewis or Buxton here, given their sky-high ceilings -- but let’s wait for those two to put together a close-to-full season at full strength first. It’s weird to say coming off Correa’s worst season as a big leaguer, but assuming his heel is healthy -- and it’s certainly looked that way this spring -- this feels like the safest bet.

At minimum, a healthy Correa gives good to great defense and everyday playing time at one of the game’s toughest positions. He’s established a solid baseline on offense over the years when not playing through a heel injury, so if he progresses back toward his career track record, that establishes a solid baseline, and that’s to say nothing of the clubhouse leadership.

Team Cy Young will be … Pablo López

The 3.66 ERA of last season trailed López’s elite underlying metrics, which projected him to have a 3.00 expected ERA -- which continues to suggest an upward trajectory in López’s already impressive career. He had 234 strikeouts to trail only Kevin Gausman in the AL, and most significantly, he made all 32 starts for the second straight season. If he can stay healthy -- and he seems to have established a good routine to do so -- the sky’s the limit.

Bold prediction: López wins the AL Cy Young

It still feels like there’s one more gear yet to be unlocked in López’s game. He rose to the occasion on the big stage last year, pitching the Twins to two playoff wins, and he showed the capability to consistently go deep into outings, including a 12-strikeout shutout of the Royals.

If he can find a way to more consistently avoid the tough outings in which he gets hit, he could ascend into the echelon of the elite and close that gap between his expected and actual stats. The unfortunate news of Gerrit Cole’s season-opening injury could play into López’s eventual case.