The top two teams in the American League are squaring off with a trip to the World Series on the line.
The Rays and Guardians -- the AL’s Nos. 1 and 2 seeds, respectively -- will meet in the 2026 ALCS, which begins Monday at Tropicana Field.
Tampa Bay is seeking its first Fall Classic appearance since 2020 and the first World Series win in franchise history, while Cleveland hasn’t made the World Series since 2016 and hasn’t won it since 1948.
How closely contested will this ALCS be? Thirty MLB.com experts gave their series predictions, and here’s what they said.
Guardians (No. 2 seed) vs. Rays (No. 1 seed)
The pick: Rays (27 of 30 votes, 90%)
Why they’ll win
The Rays proved their superiority in the AL, taking the lead in the AL East for good in late June and holding off the Yankees for the division crown and the league’s top seed. That’s no easy feat in a division where three teams qualified for the postseason and the Blue Jays and Orioles didn’t miss by much.
In all phases of the game, Tampa Bay has what it takes to win this ALCS and potentially the World Series as well. The Rays have excellent starting pitching in the form of Drew Rasmussen, Freddy Peralta and Nick Martinez; a lockdown closer in Bryan Baker; and a potent lineup led by Yandy Díaz and Junior Caminero.
They have plenty of complementary pieces, too: Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour as starting depth, Kevin Kelly and Cam Booser in the bullpen; and Jonathan Aranda, Liam Hicks, Victor Mesa Jr. and speedster Chandler Simpson in the field. After sweeping the Yankees in the ALDS, the Rays were the pick by a wide majority of our experts here.
What they are saying
“The Rays are clicking on all cylinders right now, and the Guardians are coming off a tough ALDS vs. the White Sox. How much do the Guards have left in the tank? The Rays' pitching is lined up and Tampa Bay will dominate this series.” -- Arturo Pardavila, vice president for breaking news and Spanish content
“This might be a good old-fashioned, pitching-dominated series, with the Rays' arms narrowly ahead of the Guardians’.” -- Jonathan Mayo, national reporter, prospects
“It's kind of hard to pick against the team that just staged a historic comeback against the Pope's preferred team. But the Rays will win behind the power of rest and speed and Junior Caminero and Yandy Díaz torturing their former team.” -- Anthony Castrovince, senior national reporter
The dissenting view
Our experts who picked the Guardians credited starters Parker Messick and Gavin Williams, star third baseman José Ramírez and a scrappy club that came back from an 0-2 hole to beat the White Sox in five games in the ALDS.
“The Rays will go up 3-1, then the Guards will win three straight, because that's just how they operate.” -- Alan Rittner, editorial producer
“The Guardians got their magic back in Chicago, and they'll ride that momentum to the World Series with help from J-Ram and the rotation.” -- Linus Lawrence, content producer
Series predictions
Rays (5 games): 15 votes
Rays (6 games): 10 votes
Rays (4 games): 2 votes
Guardians (7 games): 2 votes
Guardians (5 games): 1 vote
A large majority of our voters think the Rays will win the ALCS in either five or six games, but the two who predicted a seven-game series both picked the Guardians.
Who will be named ALCS MVP?
Junior Caminero (TB): 13 votes
Drew Rasmussen (TB): 7 votes
Yandy Díaz (TB): 3 votes
José Ramírez (CLE): 3 votes
Victor Mesa Jr. (TB): 2 votes
Bryan Baker (TB): 1 vote
Jonathan Aranda (TB): 1 vote
Our experts think that Caminero will win ALCS Most Valuable Player honors. The 23-year-old reached base five times in the ALDS. He’ll look to check off a few more boxes in the ALCS, like his first playoff home run after slugging 42 long balls -- more than all but three Major League hitters -- in the regular season. For the Rays to get to their third World Series in franchise history, they’ll need a big hit or two from their All-Star slugger.
“He was good in the ALDS but didn’t get a chance to have a signature moment,” said reporter/producer Josh Kirshenbaum. “That could change here, especially with the Guardians bringing so many lefties.”
Rasmussen was the second-highest vote-getter, on the heels of a no-hit bid of 7 2/3 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees. Ramírez earned all three MVP votes among our experts who picked the Guardians to win the AL pennant.