Can Phillies cool off sizzling Braves?

First place in NL East on the line at SunTrust Park

June 13th, 2019

The National League East is heating, up with the Braves grabbing sole possession of first place for the first time this season on Wednesday might, when they beat the Pirates, 8-7, and the Phillies lost to the D-backs, 2-0.

The Braves and Phillies open a big three-game series Friday night at SunTrust Park in Atlanta. To get the pulse of each team entering the series, we the beat writers -- Bowman on the Braves and Zolecki on the Phillies -- have collaborated to weigh in. Here’s our exchange ahead of Friday night’s series opener:

Zolecki: Phillies fans have had concerns about their rotation, so they certainly noticed that the Braves signed Dallas Keuchel. When do you think the Phillies might see Keuchel, and how do you think the rotation has changed since the last time these teams played?

Bowman: Keuchel will make one more Minor League start this weekend, likely make his Braves debut against the Nationals next week and then possibly face the Phillies during the July 2-4 series in Atlanta.

The midseason addition of a former Cy Young Award winner should bolster a rotation that looks much different than the injury-depleted one the Phillies handled at the start of the season. But there will be some familiar faces, as Sean Newcomb is set to return to the rotation Saturday, and Mike Foltynewicz will start Sunday's series finale. 

 Foltynewicz has made some recent strides, but he's not back to where he was last year, when he posted a 2.04 ERA in six starts against Philadelphia.

 But you're certainly familiar with seeing projected frontline starters struggle at the start of this season. What should the Braves expect from Aaron Nola and Nick Pivetta this weekend?

Zolecki: Both Nola and Pivetta got off to bad starts this season. Pivetta struggled so much, in fact, that the Phillies optioned him to Triple-A in April. But Nola has slowly started to pitch better, although he has not been the guy that finished behind Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer for the NL Cy Young Award last year.

 Pivetta has been fantastic in his three starts since rejoining the team. He dominated the Dodgers in Los Angeles, and he threw the first complete game of his career against the Cardinals. He has allowed one run in his last 19 innings.

I think the Phillies expect Nola to ultimately be Nola, but Pivetta really is a wild card here. If he can become the No. 2 or 3 they believe he can be, it will take some pressure off them to find a starter before July 31. The Phillies could be in the market for a starter, bullpen help or even a center fielder before the Trade Deadline.

 Do you think the Braves could be competing with the Phillies for any of the same talent in July?

Bowman: Given the Braves were devising a plan to sign both Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel, we know they have the money and desire to improve a bullpen that also looks nothing like the one that surrendered 23 runs over this year's first three games in Philadelphia. 

Luke Jackson has become a serviceable closer, and Sean Newcomb stabilized the bullpen when he transitioned to a relief role. Still, even if former closer A.J. Minter proves more dependable now that he's back from his demotion to Triple-A, this club could certainly use at least one more proven reliever.

But with Keuchel and 21-year-old Mike Soroka currently looking like Atlanta's only potential frontline starters, the Braves will continue to be linked to Madison Bumgarner, Mike Minor and other starters who might be available.

 We know the Phillies garnered most of the attention during what was a rather quiet offseason for the Braves. What impact has Bryce Harper made in Philadelphia?

 Zolecki: It's interesting. Harper is batting .250 with 11 homers, 46 RBIs and an .820 OPS. Certainly, the Phillies (and Harper) expect better production than that. But he has been swinging the bat better the past few weeks, batting .298 with nine doubles, four home runs, 19 RBIs and an .864 OPS in his last 24 games.

He is streaky, so I think the Phillies are hoping that he continues to trend in that direction. But just having him in the lineup has made a difference, because even when he is not hitting well he is a threat because of his power.

Who's swinging well right now for the Braves?

Bowman: Austin Riley garnered a lot of attention when he burst on the scene with a power surge similar to the one Rhys Hoskins enjoyed at the start of his career. But Freddie Freeman is in the midst of an even more impressive tear. Freeman has homered once every two or three games over the past month, and he seems to be back to where he was before he fractured his left wrist six weeks into the 2017 season.

Freeman's surge began when the Braves moved Ronald Acuna Jr. back to the top of their lineup. Acuna hasn't been as hot as he was after last year's All-Star break, but the 21-year-old outfielder has started to heat up over the past few days.  We know both lineups are loaded with power potential, but it felt like defense significantly influenced last year's division race.

Have the Phillies improved defensively?

 Zolecki: The Phillies are better defensively. They ranked 30th in baseball last season with -146 Defensive Runs Saved, according to FanGraphs. It was the lowest number since FanGraphs started tracking it in 2002. But the Phillies are 21st this season at -8.

Honestly, I think the Phillies are happy with that. They said in the offseason that they had no expectations that they suddenly would jump from worst to first. But if they made some incremental improvements it might make enough of a difference here or there to win an extra ballgame or two. And that could mean the difference between winning the division or not, or winning the second NL Wild Card or not.