How will the Cubs' starting rotation shake out?

March 17th, 2024

MESA, Ariz. -- The Cubs did not feel like giving the Rangers an early preview of left-hander on Sunday afternoon. He will be facing the World Series champions soon enough on Opening Day, so he headed down to the Minor League fields and logged five innings against some free-swinging farmhands.

That approach gave the North Siders the opportunity to hand the ball to rotation candidate in the Cubs’ 8-6 Cactus League win over Texas at Sloan Park. Assad pitched into the fourth inning and looked solid enough in his latest audition for a place on Chicago’s pitching staff as either a starter or reliever.

“We’re all great pitchers,” Assad said via team translator Fredy Quevedo. “And I believe that each one in the group of those guys has the ability to be in [the rotation]. We’re there supporting each other. Everybody’s doing a great job right now, but ultimately those decisions are for the manager to make."

With less than two weeks remaining until Opening Day, here is the latest on the Cubs’ rotation picture:

What does the schedule reveal?
Right now, the only thing that is officially locked in place is that Steele is lined up to start on Opening Day on March 28 in Texas. After Steele, veteran ’ schedule appears to line him up to take the ball for the North Siders in the season’s second game on March 30.

From there, the Cubs still have a variety of paths they could take with the Nos. 3-5 slots. The way Chicago’s spring rotation has been plotted out, lefties and look like the main candidates for March 31. appears on a path to start the home opener against the Rockies on April 1 and any one of Assad, , Wicks or Smyly could line up for April 2.

“How you start is definitely not going to be how you finish,” Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy said. “And when you know you've got movable pieces and guys that can pitch in different scenarios, that gives you a lot of flexibility to do a lot of different things.”

When will return to rotation?
Taillon walked up the hill in the Cubs’ row of mounds at their spring complex on Sunday morning and mimed his delivery. The big right-hander did not go through a bullpen session -- he is targeting Tuesday or Wednesday for that step -- but he offered a smile and a thumbs up as he headed in to finish the day’s rehab work.

On March 9, Taillon was a late scratch from his planned spring debut due to his lower back flaring up as he warmed up. The pitcher is headed for a season-opening stint on the injured list, but is optimistic about returning as soon as possible. Factoring in IL rules, the earliest Taillon could be available would be during the April 8-10 series in San Diego.

“I told them, ideally, I'd be ready for a couple innings on Opening Day,” Taillon said.

In reality, Taillon knows he has to build back up to around 100 pitches, and manager Craig Counsell has said the standard throwing program includes at least four game-like appearances. Taillon said he appreciates the depth the Cubs have for the rotation, but he wants to get quickly back into the mix.

“It’s my responsibility to my teammates to be out there,” Taillon said. “But at the same time … we do have that depth and we're going to use everyone at some point throughout the year. So let's get this right, treat it properly, don't rush.”

Would Cubs actually carry four lefties?
There is a real chance that Taillon’s setback has opened the door for a rotation featuring lefties Steele, Imanaga, Smyly and Wicks.

“If it was four righties, I don’t think it would even be a conversation,” Smyly said. “But four lefties? That’s weird, right?”

Hottovy noted that some of the league’s top offenses feature elite left-handed bats. That includes the Dodgers, who the Cubs face in the third series of the season. There is also the point that Taillon should not be out all that long, and both Smyly and Assad are versatile enough to move between the rotation and bullpen.

Hottovy also stressed the importance of not falling prey to “preconceived notions” when building a pitching staff.

“With how right-handed we've been in the past, it's amazing for us to even be thinking or talking about having four lefties in the rotation,” Hottovy said. “One thing that Counsell's talked about is, we want to take the guys who are going to give us the best chance to win. And we'll figure out the ways that we can piece that together and move guys around accordingly.”