Mets' offense slumping at inopportune time

Scuffling bats can't back deGrom's historic start in second straight loss to Cubs

September 14th, 2022

NEW YORK -- Whatever concerns existed for the Mets coming out of August, the month of September offered a panacea. The first half of the month featured the easiest stretch of schedule the Mets would face all season, with 16 consecutive games against losing teams. It was a chance for the Mets to put distance between themselves and the Braves in the NL East, no matter how well Atlanta happened to fare.

The reality has played out differently. Over the first 11 games of that stretch, the Mets have gone 5-6, including their 4-1 loss to the Cubs on Tuesday night at Citi Field.

“Finishing off a good season is really challenging,” manager Buck Showalter said. “You see the finish line. You’re trying to get there. You sometimes get away from the things that got you there.”

In a familiar plotline, this one was not the fault of Jacob deGrom, who matched a 108-year-old record in delivering his 39th consecutive start of allowing three earned runs or fewer -- two of those coming home after a missed interference call at first base in the fourth. Blame fell more heavily upon an offense that’s scored just once before the ninth inning in two straight losses. By the time Edwin Díaz entered a non-save situation in the top of the ninth at Citi Field, hundreds of fans were streaming for the exits rather than clapping along to “Narco.”

So why is the offense sputtering now of all times? It’s not a singular question.

Why is it happening in fits and spurts?
Statistically, New York’s overall offensive production in September has not been bad. It has, however, been inconsistent. After scoring seven runs in their series opener against the Nationals earlier this month, the Mets plated two in the final two games of that series combined. They scored 11 and nine in their last two games against the Marlins, then a total of three in their first two against the Cubs.

Asked about such discrepancies, both Showalter and Pete Alonso mentioned the role of luck -- a fair point. In the first inning Tuesday alone, Alonso missed a two-run homer by about a foot, and Brandon Nimmo was struck in the foot on the bases by a batted ball.

While a simple answer of “that’s baseball” may not be satisfying, the Mets essentially believe it to be the case.

“We’ve earned every single bit of where we’re at,” Alonso said. “We haven’t been lucky. We’ve been really, really good all year long. We’ve earned everything that we’ve gotten, and we’ve earned the position that we’re in.”

How concerning is the DH production?
Mets designated hitters are 0-for-6 this series and have barely contributed in September. It’s hardly a new plotline for a Mets club that struggled to find consistency earlier this year from Robinson Canó, Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis. For a time, the Mets believed a platoon of Trade Deadline acquisitions Daniel Vogelbach and Darin Ruf could solve their problems. But both of those players are slumping.

After Vogelbach went 0-for-3 on Tuesday, Showalter played the card he had declined to the night before, pinch-hitting rookie Mark Vientos against left-hander Brandon Hughes in the ninth. Vientos flied out, albeit on a ball hit 103 mph.

Over the balance of this month, Vientos probably isn’t the answer, given Showalter’s reluctance to play him regularly. Instead, Showalter has indicated he’s more likely to stick with Vogelbach and Ruf in the hope that they can find their respective strokes.

“There’s a different sense of urgency,” the manager said before the game. “It’s not, ‘OK, I’ve got to stay true, I’ve got to stay loyal to this guy.’ … But how does it ever get started? That’s why everybody’s searching for track record. If they’re healthy and they’re in good shape, sooner or later, they’ll chase that track record.”

Can the Mets win with a relative lack of power?
In April and May, the Mets led MLB with a .315 batting average on balls in play -- a statistic that tends to shed light on how lucky an offense has been. The Mets weren’t hitting for significant power then, either, ranking 17th in baseball in home runs. But once the good fortune started to dry up, particularly with men in scoring position, New York’s relative lack of pop became more apparent.

Since the start of June, the Mets have a .294 BABIP, which rates 15th in baseball. One of their top power hitters, Starling Marte, is on the injured list. Another, Vogelbach, is slumping. Still another, Francisco Lindor, recently went 98 consecutive plate appearances without a home run.

Although luck comes and luck goes, the Mets would do well to minimize its impact with a bit more muscle. To that end, perhaps Alonso’s solo home run in the ninth was a hint at something more to come.

“There’s no sort of panic or anything like that,” Alonso said. “Sometimes, you have to take it off your chin and go play your heart out tomorrow. And that’s what we’re going to do.”