Wren confident that reward will outweigh Kimbrel's risk

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. -- Braves general manager Frank Wren understands the risk that goes with entering a long-term agreement with a closer. At the same time, he did not want to learn what life might be like without Craig Kimbrel.

So on Sunday morning, Wren proudly announced that Kimbrel had signed a four-year deal that includes an option for the 2018 season. The contract provides a guarantee of $42 million over the first four years. If the 25-year-old closer exercises his option and all potential bonuses, he could make as much as $58.5 million over the next five years.

If Kimbrel continues to be one of the game's elite closers, the Braves will be glad to give him an approximate average annual salary of $11.7 million over the next five years. But if he gets injured or follows the path of other closers who have experienced a sudden and unexpected decline, then this will prove to be a potentially destructive risk.

"History is the best predictor of the future," Wren said. "You're never going to hedge all your bets. But he's strong, he's healthy, he works hard. He does all the things you want a player to do to maintain their health. That is what we are counting on."

The Braves are also counting on Kimbrel to continue doing what he has done over the past three seasons, during which he has successfully converted 90.2 percent of his 153 save opportunities. He has recorded 28 more saves (138) than any other Major Leaguer during this span and done so while striking out 42.9 percent of the batters he has faced.

"I show up every day to perform and go out and play," Kimbrel said. "That's all I can do is to prepare myself each and every day and stay as healthy as I can. If you take care of yourself, things are going to be okay. There are things out there that you can't judge or say it's going to happen. Obviously, if you don't take care of yourself, it will. That's one thing I do pride myself in, is showing up every day, working hard and being ready when I step my foot on the mound."

While the lifespan of an effective closer has proven to be unpredictable, the Braves are comforted by the fact that Kimbrel has not been on the disabled list or limited by any kind of arm discomfort since reaching the Major League level in 2010.

"When you have guys in your organization that you have brought up from day one, I think you have a good feel for their work ethic and how they handle themselves," Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said. "You feel a lot more comfortable handing those contracts out."