Of the 12 teams that reached the postseason in 2025, seven of them are very well-positioned to return. Those seven, according to FanGraphs’ playoff odds entering play Wednesday, each have more than a 58% chance of making it to October again: the Dodgers (100%, which I’ll confess seems a little high!), Brewers (99.3%), Yankees (95.3%), Phillies (86.8%), Mariners (a surprising 85.6%, considering they’re only two games over .500), Cubs (75.9%) and Guardians (52.2%, also surprising considering they’re not currently in first place).
It’s the other five that are having some issues.
As we head toward next week’s All-Star break, I thought it might be valuable to look at that struggling quintet of 2025 playoff teams and what’s happened with their seasons so far. Here is one way each can still turn things around and return to October, as well as one reason for each to be concerned.
Each team is listed in order of its FanGraphs playoff odds, entering play Wednesday.
Tigers (28.5% playoff odds)
You can forgive the Tigers for getting a little frustrated with all your questions about Tarik Skubal: They’re not entirely convinced they’re out of this thing just yet. After all, their postseason odds are considerably higher than the Guardians’ were on this date a year ago (at 8.5 percent on July 8, 2025) … and of course, the Guardians won the AL Central last year. (Something the Tigers know all too well.) But you can also understand the outside skepticism. The Tigers are eight games under .500, in fourth place in the not-exactly-winning-at-a-torrid-pace AL Central and have felt mostly underwater after a truly miserable 6-22 May. With the additions of Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander, this was supposed to be the Tigers’ year. It has not turned out that way.
How they can turn it around: They actually are one of only two teams in the AL Central with a positive run differential, and some of their young hitters (namely Riley Greene, Dillon Dingler and AL Rookie of the Year frontrunner Kevin McGonigle) have played well. If they keep Skubal in the fold, it’s not unreasonable they could have a serious run in them. After all, they are 20-12 since the start of June, which is the best record in the AL over that span.
Reason to be concerned: Those trade offers for Skubal are going to be awfully tempting. If they trade him, it will be excellent for the Tigers in the long term. But in the short term? Not so much.
Blue Jays (24.4% playoff odds)
Of the many painful aspects of last year’s World Series heartbreaker against the Dodgers, the most worrisome one for the Blue Jays was: What if they can’t get back? The Jays were aggressive in the offseason in trying to give themselves their best chance, but still, here they sit, five games under .500 and in desperate need of the return of some of that 2025 mojo. It is starting to get late.
How they can turn it around: By rediscovering that 2025 offense, which ranked fourth in the Majors in runs per game. This year, a very similar group ranks a stunning 26th, down basically a full run. The struggles of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has just five home runs, are hard to believe. He’s not the only one in the lineup not pulling his weight, but Guerrero finding his swing – especially his power swing – would go a long way toward solving this team’s problems. He can carry a team when he’s right.
Reason to be concerned: The Jays actually have the fourth-worst run differential in the American League, a sign that they’ve played a little bit above their heads so far. That’s ominous. They need to make it 2025 again, by science or magic.
Red Sox (23.1% playoff odds)
The Red Sox don’t feel like they have nearly a 1-in-4 chance of making the playoffs, do they? This year has felt downright cursed for them, with injury problems, a sagging lineup, shoddy defense and flat rotten luck piling up on them to the point that the best thing Fenway has had going has probably been all those Scottish soccer fans showing up. They’re back in Europe now, and it should be said that the Red Sox have been playing better: They’ve won 10 of their last 12 to move within three games of the last AL Wild Card spot. But the road back remains steep.
How they can turn it around: The starting pitching is quite solid, ranking in the top 10 in the Majors in ERA. Even with Garrett Crochet’s season being an injury-marred disappointment, you could do a lot worse than Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez atop your rotation. Rookies Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett are looking good, and Patrick Sandoval is about to make his Red Sox debut. That the Blue Jays and Orioles can’t really get it going has cracked a window for them as well.
Reason to be concerned: The injury problems are just unrelenting at this point, with Roman Anthony taking a step backward in his rehab, Connelly Early now on the IL with elbow inflammation and even Suarez being banged up. It sure looks like too much for this team to overcome. Are the trades coming soon?
Padres (11.8%)
It had been going so well for the Padres. They were briefly in first place in mid-May, wondering if they might be able to even make a run at the Dodgers. But not much has gone right since: They’re 17-28 since May 19, putting themselves in deep trouble. Heading into the playoffs last year, there were those who wondered if the Padres were as well-positioned at the beginning of October as any team this decade. Now they’re in danger of not even getting a sniff at the postseason.
How they can turn it around: By having those veterans in the lineup do what they have done in the past. Fernando Tatis Jr. already has picked things up after a mystifying start, but San Diego simply needs more from the likes of Manny Machado (.686 OPS), Xander Bogaerts (.654) and Jake Cronenworth (.555 but better since returning from the IL) to make this whole thing work. You figure these guys have been too good for too long to just collapse this suddenly, right? Right? The path forward is through them, and only them.
Reason to be concerned: The issues here are starting to look systemic: The team isn’t even in enough close games to have work for Mason Miller. If this doesn’t turn around soon, they might have to consider trading their superstar closer.
Reds (1.7%)
After winning on April 30, the Reds were 20-11 and feeling like their time had finally come, that they were building off their surprise playoff appearance last year and ready to take the next step. They would lose eight in a row after that and have barely been heard from since.
How they can turn it around: Young talent that can continue to improve. Chase Burns is one of the best starting pitchers in baseball just a couple years after the Reds drafted him, and he pairs with Hunter Greene, who is now back from the IL. Slugger Sal Stewart is an All-Star and NL Rookie of the Year candidate, and of course there is Elly De La Cruz as well.
Reason to be concerned: The Reds are eight games out of the last NL Wild Card spot, with only the Mets, Giants and Rockies behind them. This is going to require a dramatic turnaround, and it’s going to have to start … now.