Inside the numbers of Lowe's super hot start

August 17th, 2020

After beginning his career on an 0-for-18 drought in 2018, stood at his locker in the visiting clubhouse at Yankee Stadium, continuing to show confidence that he was going to turn things around. That same night, Lowe went 2-for-4, collecting his first big league hits, and he hasn’t stopped hitting since.

Last season, Lowe became an integral part of the Rays’ lineup. Lowe hit 17 home runs despite playing in just 82 games, and he made his first career All-Star team. Before injuries derailed a chunk of his season, Lowe was the clear frontrunner to win American League Rookie of the Year.

But despite his success last season, a fully healthy Lowe has elevated his game even more in 2020, becoming one of the best young hitters in the Majors.

Lowe, who was named MLB Player of the Week presented by Chevrolet for the AL on Monday, leads the Rays with seven home runs and has an AL-leading 1.142 OPS in 22 games. Lowe also leads the AL in extra-base hits (16), total bases (59), OPS+ (209) and WAR (1.6, per FanGraphs). His WAR is tied for second in the Majors with Padres shortstop , behind only Giants outfielder , who sits at 1.8.

What has led to Lowe’s hot start at the plate? Let’s take a look at some key numbers.

Good quality of contact, plus strikeout improvements
“The intent is to hit the ball hard,” Lowe said. “More base hits come the higher the exit velo is off the bat. It’s a pretty common thing for people to know -- you hit the ball solid, chances are you’re going to get a hit. I want to hit the ball hard. I want to do damage.”

There’s no denying that Lowe has been crushing the ball lately. He has 12 barrels so far this season, tied for most in the Majors with and Tatis. Barrels are batted balls with the optimal combination of launch angle and exit velocity, and they typically result in extra-base hits. In other words -- exactly what Lowe has been doing lately.

He’s been efficient in hitting the ball with good contact, too. Only Seager and have had more barrels per plate appearance among qualifiers this season.

Quality of contact is key to Lowe’s start, because he’s actually hitting the ball a little less hard than he did last year, with a 90.8 mph average exit velocity, compared to 91.6 in 2019. But his launch angle has increased by more than two degrees, from 19.2 to 21.9, and that all adds up to more quality contact overall. His expected stats, which are based on quality of contact, plus strikeouts, bear that out as well -- his .686 expected slugging percentage is in the top 7% of the league.

And that gets to another important point: his strikeout rate, which is at 25%, a season after his 35% strikeout rate was third-highest in the Majors (minimum 300 plate appearances). Only four players with at least 50 plate appearances this season and 300 last season have lowered their strikeout rates further than Lowe has.

It follows logically, then, that Lowe has cut his chase rate -- swings at pitches out of the zone -- dramatically as well. He had a 30.9% chase rate last season, and this year is at just 19.8%.

Crushing fastballs, offspeed pitches as usual
Lowe hit both fastballs and offspeed pitches well in 2019, with a .291 batting average and .596 slugging percentage in at-bats ending on fastballs and .320 and .600 on offspeed. A big part of his success so far this season has been simply continuing those trends.

He’s hitting a whopping .395 in at-bats that end on a fastball this year, with a .789 slugging percentage. What’s even more impressive is his expected stats, which indicate that he could be doing even better against fastballs based on the contact he’s made. His expected slugging percentage on fastballs is .922, fourth highest among hitters with at least 40 plate appearances ending on fastballs this season.

Back to that hard contact Lowe is making. He has a 95.4 mph average exit velocity against fastballs this year, tied for fourth highest in the Majors (minimum 25 batted balls on fastballs). He’s in elite fastball-crushing territory, at least for the moment.

He’s doing well against offspeed again, too, with a .304 batting average and .696 slugging percentage. He’s already hit two homers on offspeed pitches this season, halfway to his total from 2019.

Improving against breaking balls
With pitchers attacking him less with fastballs, hitting breaking balls more consistently is perhaps Lowe’s biggest improvement this season.

Though still a small sample size -- and he has benefitted from some good luck -- the power numbers for Lowe have been much better against breaking pitches this season. Lowe has a .684 slugging percentage on breaking balls this season, compared to a .362 clip a season ago, which was by far his lowest against any pitch. Last season, Lowe hit three home runs on breaking pitches. He already has two this season in 330 less pitches.

Not only is the power up, but Lowe is making more overall contact on breaking pitches. In 2018, Lowe had a whiff rate of 52.5% on breaking pitches. Last season, that number went down to 47.1%, but it was still his highest against any pitch. This season -- and again, it’s still a small sample size -- but Lowe has cut down his whiff rate to 41.5%.

“We all recognize that he’s proven to the league, in a really short amount of time, that he can hit a fastball,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said earlier this season. “He’s going to probably make some adjustments this season to be able to handle [breaking] pitches in the zone.”