ST. PETERSBURG -- The way the Rays are pitching right now, you can’t ever count them out of a game.
That was once again the case on Tuesday night, as the Rays overcame an early two-run deficit and came back again by stringing together four hits in the eighth inning to beat the Blue Jays, 4-3, at Tropicana Field.
It was Tampa Bay’s 10th comeback victory and the club’s fifth win when trailing at some point in the eighth inning, a testament to its resilience and no small part of the reason the Rays are now 23-12 on the season.
“They do a good job of staying in the game, staying focused,” manager Kevin Cash said. “Things are going our way right now, pretty obviously, but I'm happy that we just continue to find ways to take advantage of it.”
The Rays have won five straight and 11 of their past 12 games. What’s their secret? It’s no secret at all: run prevention.
The Rays haven’t allowed more than three runs in a game since April 21. As a staff, they’ve posted a 1.33 ERA during that 12-game stretch.
Tuesday night was the 12th straight game in which the Rays held their opponent to three runs or fewer, tying the franchise record set from Aug. 4-16, 2014. It’s the longest streak in the Majors since the eventual World Series champion Astros in 2022 (12 straight from Aug. 23-Sept. 5).
“It’s a pretty good run,” starter Drew Rasmussen said, smiling.
What’s behind the Rays’ remarkable run prevention?
1. Getting ahead
Pitching coach Kyle Snyder has always preached the importance of “count control,” and that starts with strike one. Entering play on Tuesday, only the Mariners had a better first-pitch strike rate (68%) than the Rays’ 64.7% mark.
Rasmussen threw a first-pitch strike to 17 of 25 hitters during his six innings on the mound. The bullpen -- featuring Hunter Bigge, Casey Legumina and Cole Sulser -- did so against seven of the 12 batters it faced over the final three innings.
It sounds simple, but the numbers always bear it out. This season, the league entered Tuesday’s action slashing .216/.266/.335 after an 0-1 count compared to .253/.387/.425 after a 1-0 count.
“We worry about the things we can control, and I think right now, we're executing at a pretty high level. We're throwing strike one at an incredibly high clip,” Rasmussen said. “We're doing a really good job of getting ahead and then executing with two strikes once we get there.”
2. A good change
No team is throwing as many changeups as the Rays. They didn’t use many against the Blue Jays, but they entered their latest victory having thrown the offspeed offering a league-leading 20.7% of the time.
That uptick in usage is a combination of several factors. The Rays already had some arms with high-quality changeups they like to throw, like Shane McClanahan. They added starters with good changeups, like Nick Martinez and Steven Matz. They’ve encouraged some to use their quality offspeed stuff more, like Bryan Baker. And they’ve helped others develop changeups, like Rasmussen, Bigge and reliever Kevin Kelly.
The pitch is, well, a change of pace for hitters who are increasingly comfortable hitting high-velocity fastballs and big-breaking sliders and curveballs. Opponents were batting just .169 with a .238 slugging percentage against Tampa Bay’s changeups this season.
“We continue to push what we feel the best pitches are for the guys that come in here, and we've had some success doing that, changing some pitch distributions a little bit and pushing some of their better offerings,” Snyder said recently.
3. Pitching and …
Run prevention isn’t just pitching, of course. Good defense is equally important. And after a rough start to the season, the Rays have mostly cleaned up their work in the field.
“There are seven guys behind me,” McClanahan said Tuesday afternoon. “And those guys are going through walls for me, going through walls for everybody.”
Take Tuesday’s second inning, for instance. After the Jays scored their second run on two hits and a bunt single, first baseman Jonathan Aranda made a terrific play on a bunt attempt by Brandon Valenzuela, crashing in and making an off-balance, cross-body throw to catcher Hunter Feduccia to cut down Ernie Clement.
4. It starts with starters
The Rays' rotation’s 3.20 ERA is third best in baseball, trailing only the Yankees and Dodgers. Their starters have allowed three earned runs or fewer in 29 of 35 games this season and two earned runs or fewer in an MLB-leading 27 games.
That kind of consistency goes a long way -- and keeps the team within striking distance for late rallies like Tuesday night’s.
“We're winning games, but when we're down, they're keeping it right there,” Cash said.
5. A bounce-back bullpen
It was a tough start to the season for the Rays’ relievers, but they’ve effectively put those days behind them. The relief corps has thrown 14 consecutive scoreless innings and yielded just one run over the past 29 1/3 frames, with just about everyone contributing meaningful outs.
“It doesn't matter who comes out behind you,” Rasmussen said. “You have nothing but confidence they're going to keep the game exactly where it's at.”