Rays' big 2024 focus? Flip postseason luck

December 27th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Adam Berry’s Rays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

ST. PETERSBURG -- The night the Rays’ season ended, they didn’t have many answers. A few days later, as they discussed what went wrong and what would come next, there wasn’t much more they could say. Months later, as the industry gathered for the Winter Meetings, it was still hard to explain.

How have the Rays been so good in the regular season lately, with so little to show for it in the postseason?

“I think it’s a very fair question,” manager Kevin Cash said at the Winter Meetings. “I don’t know what the answer is, but I think … the more times we can get there, good things are going to happen. In the moment, it is very frustrating.”

The Rays will try to get back there in 2024 and win a playoff series for the first time since the 2020 American League Championship Series. Their roster currently looks similar to the one that won 99 games this past season, although that group lost several key pieces to injuries along the way and flamed out in a two-game sweep against the eventual World Series champion Rangers in the AL Wild Card Series.

So far this winter, the Rays’ activity has been limited to deadline-oriented moves around the edges of the roster and the big trade that sent Tyler Glasnow (their highest-paid pitcher) and Manuel Margot (their highest-paid hitter) to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca.

What comes next? Who might help them get back to October? Let’s take a look before ringing in the new year.

One player poised to have a breakout season: RHP

The Rays expected Bradley to impact their rotation at some point last season, but they weren’t betting on the former top prospect making 21 starts as a 22-year-old rookie. Injuries expedited Bradley’s debut campaign, and further injuries created additional opportunities. Through it all, Bradley produced some uninspiring numbers: a 5.59 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 23 homers allowed in 104 2/3 innings.

But the Rays see big things ahead for Bradley, and they were extremely encouraged by the electric stuff he showed, evidenced by his 28 percent strikeout rate. Cash said the Rays expect a “much more comfortable version of Taj” next year, and that comfort should lead to success in 2024.

Prospect to watch in 2024: INF

Infielder Curtis Mead, the Rays’ No. 3 prospect, could be a difference-maker sooner rather than later. First baseman Xavier Isaac (No. 4) may establish himself as one of the game’s top hitting prospects by the end of the year. The Rays liked Yoniel Curet enough to add the young pitcher to their 40-man roster ahead of the Nov. 14 Rule 5 Draft deadline. But Caminero, the club’s top prospect, has a chance to be something truly special.

The 20-year-old hits the ball as hard and as far as just about anybody in the game, traits he showed after jumping straight from Double-A to the Majors in a brief debut down the stretch last season. He may not break camp with the Rays, and it’s unclear where he’ll fit defensively, but Caminero has the ability and track record to be a star at some point.

Biggest question to answer before Spring Training: What is the status of Wander Franco?

For the most part, the Rays’ roster appears to be in pretty good shape. Pepiot can take Glasnow’s spot in the rotation, and DeLuca could fill Margot’s role in the outfield. There’s room to add pitching depth and a catcher to work alongside René Pinto, sure, and perhaps make a few more deals on the position-player side to make room for Tampa Bay’s glut of young infielders.

But the biggest question is one the team itself can’t answer: What is the status of Franco, who spent the final weeks of the season on administrative leave and remains under investigation by MLB and authorities in the Dominican Republic?

One prediction for the new year: The postseason losing streak ends

This prediction assumes that the Rays will do well enough in another brutal AL East battle to reach the playoffs for a sixth straight year, which would be an impressive accomplishment in its own right considering how Tampa Bay has consistently turned over its roster.

Of course, that streak hasn’t led to much October success for the Rays recently. They have been bounced in their first-round matchup each of the last three years, and their last win in a postseason game came in Game 1 of the 2021 AL Division Series against the Red Sox. They are 0-7 since then, having been swept in the Wild Card round each of the last two years. We’ll say that skid ends in 2024, even without co-aces Shane McClanahan (injured) and Glasnow (traded).