Notes: Freeland's future; Rox next move?

January 15th, 2021

DENVER -- It's time for Rockies observations as Friday's deadline for exchanging salary-arbitration figures nears, plus some questions from fans.

Denver is home
The rebound of Denver native was one of the best developments in a forgettable 2020 for the Rockies.

Freeland lowered his ERA by nearly 2 1/2 runs from 2019 to '20 and dropped his WHIP by more than 1 1/2 baserunners. Only a six-run final performance lifted his ERA above 4.00. It’s not a stretch to say that with the way the left-hander was pitching, he had a shot over a full season to surpass some of his impressive numbers from 2018, when he had a 2.85 ERA and was dominant at Coors Field.

The Rockies have a pitcher headed in the right direction. Freeland has confidence. Next question: Can these factors lead to a multiyear contract?

Freeland's pre-pandemic salary last season was $2.875 million, his first of four years of arbitration as a Super Two player. Do the sides try to work on a deal covering two -- or even all three -- years of club control? Is a contract that eats into potential free-agency years in the offing?

signed a deal that covered potential free-agent years a few seasons back. is under a five-year, $43 million deal with a club option for 2024. There's no indication such a multiyear contract for Freeland is in the works, but things can happen quickly as players and clubs try to avoid the headache of a potential arbitration hearing. One year sometimes leads to more.

The Rockies are coming off two non-postseason years. Speculation about infielders and abounds. Without much to encourage fans, and after a year when they couldn’t even populate Coors Field, there could be value in exploring a lengthier relationship with a fan favorite.

Speaking of arbitration
Here are the arbitration-eligible players signed so far:

• RHP : one year, $4.05 million
• RHP : one year, $3 million
• RHP : one year, $2.925 million
• C : one year, $1.2 million with $300,000 available in incentives
• RHP : one year, $1.1 million

In addition to Freeland, the Rockies' eligible players are right-handers , and , outfielder and infielder .

Wading through the speculation
With a slow offseason in many cities -- (not every place can be San Diego), most of the buzz surrounds Arenado and Story. Here is a fan question combining the issues:

With the Rockies already looking for a way out of Arenado's contract, why would Story want to stay with the Rockies and sign long term?
-- @MFarrell2353 on Twitter

For many teams in recent years, this would not be a relevant question. Two years out of the playoffs (and sometimes just one) can lead clubs to trade their best assets and start a rebuild. Arenado and Story might have been gone by last year’s Trade Deadline. Same with Gray, who drew much interest last offseason.

The idea that a team must choose between a championship run and a rebuild has become either a cliché or a truism. It’s certainly become standard to operate from that principle.

But the Rockies are at an interesting place. The two years out of the playoffs says one thing. But the Rockies have spent time building this starting rotation, and they want to see how far they go with Márquez, Freeland, Senzatela and Gray (who would be the first of the bunch to reach free-agency eligibility, next offseason).

Story, a premium player at a key position in his prime years, would be a key to the Rockies being competitive should the pitching come together.

Where it gets hairy is Arenado’s situation. The third baseman expressed his unhappiness last winter, and the Rockies have acknowledged being hurt financially without fan revenue in 2020. With Arenado owed $199 million over the next six years and holding an opt-out clause after 2021 and a no-trade provision, the Rockies look to be trying to thread the needle -- deal an unhappy superstar while remaining competitive.

As for a potential multiyear deal for Story, the chances of that are dependent on the Rockies’ performance this season. Story is a popular trade chip, but the Rockies’ inclination is to hold him -- and only deal if they are postseason irrelevant at the Trade Deadline.

The risk is if the Rockies miscalculate this year, they will have to bid against other teams if Arenado opts out. The almost-certain result of that would be losing him for merely a compensatory Draft pick.

Where do the Rockies go from here?
The next couple of questions can be boiled down to one: Can the Rockies afford to stay in a holding pattern?

Are the Rockies still in the market for a left-handed reliever or have they decided against it? Also, have the Rockies had any recent contact with Kevin Pillar? I know [GM Jeff] Bridich is still interested in possibly re-signing him.
-- @Slam_Hilliard22 on Twitter

Will the Rockies sign a Major League free agent (e.g., a catcher or lefty reliever) or stick with Minors deals?
-- @jonbecker_ on Twitter

It will be tough for the Rockies to make any moves without a resolution to the Arenado situation.

If things stay as is, the Rockies will hope that high Draft picks McMahon and take the next step; develops into a multi-position weapon; outfielder finds his form as either an everyday player or a platoon starter against lefty pitchers; Tapia builds on his 2020 in the outfield and becomes the batting-title threat he was in the Minors; outfielder becomes a consistent power-hitting threat; and left-handed-hitting catcher 's development is complete.

Also, answers to starting-pitching depth and the bullpen must emerge internally or with low-risk and Minor League signings.

Can it all happen? Story, Arenado and outfielder serve as examples, but it is difficult to be dependent upon the pan-out rate of drafted and developed players. That's why it makes sense to explore an Arenado trade that could net players with more robust track records and free up money to pursue free agents.