E-Rod opts out, joins free agent starter pool (source)

November 4th, 2023

DETROIT -- has joined this offseason’s free agent pitching market, opting out of the remaining three years of his contract with the Tigers, a source told MLB.com. The team has yet to announce the move.

The move had been expected since mid-summer, when Rodriguez’s strong run of starts and healthy return from a finger injury put him in position among the American League’s more reliable starters. That, in turn, allowed him and agent Gene Mato to anticipate they could improve upon the three years and $49 million still left on the five-year, $77 million contract Rodriguez signed with the Tigers as a free agent following the 2021 season.

Detroit, anticipating an opt-out, tried to trade him by the Aug. 1 Deadline, but Rodriguez used his partial no-trade rights -- another feature of his contract -- to veto a potential deal to the Dodgers. Rodriguez remained with the Tigers for the home stretch, finishing the season with a 13-9 record, 3.30 ERA and 3.5 bWAR in 26 starts. His 2.0 Adjusted Pitching Wins -- a metric using formulas to estimate a pitcher’s contribution to team victories -- ranked seventh in the American League.

Rodriguez immediately becomes a free agent who can sign with any team starting next Tuesday. He’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, having already gotten one from the Red Sox before signing with the Tigers two years ago. Thus, the Tigers cannot get a Draft pick as compensation if he signs elsewhere.

Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said shortly after the season ended that he had no plans to negotiate with Rodriguez before an opt-out decision. Now, he has to weigh what price is worth keeping Rodriguez, who was signed by Harris’ predecessor, former general manager Al Avila. 

Harris’ track record for free agent pitching signings in San Francisco and Detroit has trended more towards short-term deals with rebound candidates, including one-year deals last winter with Michael Lorenzen and Matthew Boyd. The same day that the Rodriguez trade to the Dodgers fell through, the Tigers traded Lorenzen to the Phillies for infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee, who’s currently hitting well in the Arizona Fall League.

This year’s free agent market includes some potential bounce-back candidates who could seek a short-term contract to regain value before hitting the open market again. Whether they could fill the void of Rodriguez is another question. The Tigers valued Rodriguez’s clubhouse presence and leadership this year, and his willingness to work with Detroit’s younger pitchers helped their adjustment to the Majors.

Rodriguez’s departure puts left-hander Tarik Skubal in position to potentially front the Tigers’ rotation. Skubal, who turns 27 later this month, pitched like an ace down the stretch after his midseason return from flexor tendon surgery in his left arm. His 7-3 record and 2.80 ERA in 15 starts included a 4-0 record and a 0.90 ERA over his final five starts, earning him AL Pitcher of the Month honors for September. He posted a 43-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 30 innings in that stretch.

Other returning starters include Reese Olson (5-7, 3.99 ERA in 21 games), Matt Manning (5-4, 3.58 ERA in 15 starts), Joey Wentz (3-13, 6.90 ERA in 25 games), Alex Faedo (2-5, 4.45 ERA in 15 games), Sawyer Gipson-Long (1-0, 2.70 ERA in four starts) and Spencer Turnbull (1-4, 7.26 ERA in seven starts). In addition, former top Draft pick Casey Mize is expected to return after spending the year rehabbing from Tommy John elbow and back surgeries.