SEATTLE -- And so it all comes down to this.
Through 158 games, nobody has gained much of an edge in the AL West race. Indeed, thanks to the Astros’ 6-5 loss in extra innings to the Mariners on Wednesday, nobody in the division will even enter the final weekend at .500. Houston and Texas both go into their final four games at 78-80, though the Astros own the tiebreaker thanks to winning the season series.
At best, whoever wins the AL West will do so with a record of 82-80, matching the 2005 Padres for the worst final record by a division winner in the Divisional Era (since 1969). Anything less than a four-game sweep will mean history -- not that the winner will be complaining about it.
The Astros will see their season’s fate decided with four games against the A’s in West Sacramento, beginning Thursday at 6:40 p.m. PT/8:40 p.m. CT. The Rangers wrap up a three-game set against the Mets -- New York has taken the first two games of that series -- Thursday, before finishing their slate with three games in Minnesota.
“We have a chance to play in the postseason, and we control our destiny to some extent,” Christian Walker said. “It’s exactly what you sign up for.”
Here’s what to look for as the Astros hit the final sprint of the closest -- yet slowest -- race in baseball.
The matchups
The Astros were well into all-arms-on-deck territory in Seattle, utilizing nine different pitchers in their two-game set. The only probable listed for the series in West Sacramento is Peter Lambert on Thursday. Hayden Wesneski and Hunter Brown would be in line to start Friday and Saturday, respectively, though that could change depending on clinch situations over the course of the weekend.
Lambert has pitched to a 3.93 ERA in three September starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in all three. He made one start against the A’s back on June 5, pitching around four walks and five hits to work through 5 1/3 innings allowing just one run.
Brown and Wesneski had similar lines in their lone respective outings vs. the A’s; Brown allowed one run in 5 2/3 innings on Aug. 22, a day after Weskneski threw five scoreless frames.
The A's have also only named one probable as of now, tabbing Mason Barnett to start Thursday opposite Lambert. He threw four innings out of the bullpen on June 5 vs. Houston, allowing just one hit and striking out seven. Later in the series, the Astros are likely to see Jacob Lopez, Jack Perkins and Brady Basso.
The injury front
For just a two-game series, the Astros dealt with more than their fair share of injuries in Seattle. Cristian Javier (right groin strain) and Brice Matthews (left knee inflammation) both hit the IL after getting hurt on Tuesday, making them unavailable.
Jeremy Peña, who exited Tuesday after taking a pitch off his right wrist, came in Wednesday as a pinch-runner but did not stay in to play defense. After the game, manager Joe Espada said there was never a chance that Peña would do anything other than run, but didn’t rule out a return to hitting or fielding Thursday. That will depend entirely on how Peña feels when the team gets to West Sacramento.
Center fielder Daulton Varsho, meanwhile, missed his third straight game with wrist soreness Wednesday.
The Triple Crown chase
Secondary to the club’s pursuit of the postseason is the historic chase Yordan Alvarez is on, to become the first Triple Crown winner since Miguel Cabrera in 2012.
Alvarez went 4-for-8 with a home run and three RBIs in Seattle. Going into the final series of the year, his .316 average leads the American League by seven points -- with Tampa Bay’s Chandler Simpson the only other player above .300 -- and his 41 homers are tied with Ben Rice, Pete Alonso and Junior Caminero for the league lead.
It’s the RBIs that could be tricky, as his 102 sit eight shy of Alonso’s 110. The one thing on Alvarez’s side is that his games will come at Sutter Health Park -- arguably the most hitter-friendly yard in the AL -- and against an Athletics pitching staff that has an AL-worst 5.43 ERA.