The remaining AL clinch scenarios, explained

27 minutes ago

The 2026 postseason picture is clarifying with three days remaining in the regular season, but two persistent questions loom over the AL side of the bracket.

  1. Who will win the AL Central and secure a first-round bye?
  2. Who will win the AL West?

Essentially, we have two teams (the Astros and Rangers) battling for the final AL postseason berth, and two more (the Guardians and White Sox) still waiting to be seeded. Let’s break down each of the above questions, one by one, through Thursday’s action.

Postseason Guide
• Current bracket, tiebreakers and more
• Every team that's clinched so far
• Postseason schedule
• Who would win a 3-way tie for NL Wild Card?
• FAQ: Tiebreaker rules | Postseason format

The race for the AL Central (and a first-round bye)

AL Central standings

  1. Guardians: 83-76 (.522) -- 3 at KC
  2. White Sox: 82-77 (.516) -- 3 vs. COL

The Guardians and White Sox both clinched playoff spots on Thursday, but the division crown still hangs in the balance. Cleveland has a one-game lead, but Chicago owns the tiebreaker between the two teams, after winning their season series, 7-6. If the teams finish with identical records, the Sox would take the division crown. Whoever wins the AL Central also is guaranteed to finish as the No. 2 AL playoff seed, getting a bye through the Wild Card Series and into the Division Series.

The Guardians will win the division if they at least match the White Sox record over the final three games. The White Sox will win the division if they gain at least one game on the Guardians.

  • If the Guardians go 3-0 ... Guardians win the division.
  • If the Guardians go 2-1 ... White Sox need to go 3-0.
  • If the Guardians go 1-2 ... White Sox need to go at least 2-1.
  • If the Guardians go 0-3 ... White Sox need to go at least 1-2.

The race for the AL West

AL West standings

  1. Astros 79-80 (.497) -- 3 at ATH
  2. Rangers 79-80 (.497) -- 3 at MIN

On Thursday, both clubs were officially eliminated from the Wild Card race, so the division title is the only way in, with the second-place team heading home for the offseason. Going into the final three games, these teams are tied in the standings, but because the Astros won the teams' season series, 9-4, they have the inside track on what would be their eighth division title in a 10-season span.

The Astros, then, just need to match the Rangers the rest of the way, while the Rangers need to pick up a game.

  • If the Astros go 3-0 ... Astros win the division.
  • If the Astros go 2-1 ... Rangers need to go 3-0.
  • If the Astros go 1-2 ... Rangers need to go at least 2-1.
  • If the Astros go 0-3 ... Rangers need to go at least 1-2