This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman's Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ATLANTA -- "What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas" won’t apply to the information gathered during this week’s General Managers Meetings.
Braves president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff will be among the executives who spend the next few days experiencing the GM Meetings in Las Vegas. This annual event gives executives from each of MLB’s 30 teams a chance to engage in the conversations that will impact both the free-agent and trade markets.
Here’s what’s on my mind as we await the information and rumors the next few days will bring:
1) The Braves’ greatest need is a right-handed bat.
Yes, the Braves need to add at least one starting pitcher. But the most impactful offseason move could be to compensate for what the declines of Austin Riley and Sean Murphy, combined with the extended absences of Jurickson Profar, have done to the offense over the past two years. Atlanta ranked 26th out of 30 teams with a right-handed OPS of .679 this past season. The team ranked sixth with a .751 OPS from the left side.
Might Riley and Murphy get back to being productive members of the lineup? Maybe. But however you cut it, there’s a glaring hole in left field. Could you get a platoon partner for Mike Yastrzemski? Possibly. The majority of the at-bats would be taken by Yastrzemski, who got off to a bad start and then had a .768 OPS against right-handed pitchers over his final 99 games this year. To put that in context, the World Series champion Brewers ranked sixth among MLB teams with the .769 OPS they generated from the left-field spot.
Those numbers alone might lead you to argue the Braves could get by with adding a right-handed hitter to platoon with Yastrzemski. But this team needs a stronger right-handed presence on a daily basis. So, you would want to pursue somebody who would play left field against left-handed starters and serve as the designated hitter when Drake Baldwin is behind the plate.
Randy Arozarena and Seiya Suzuki are the top right-handed-hitting outfielders on the free-agent market. Both received a qualifying offer this past week. So, if they decline their respective offers, the cost to sign either of them would include the loss of multiple Draft picks and the loss of $1 million from the international bonus pool.
Profar certainly wouldn’t be welcome back in the clubhouse after betraying his teammates both of the past two seasons with performance-enhancing drug suspensions.
So finding a right-handed-hitting outfielder stands at the top of the must-do list.
2) The Braves unfortunately can’t depend on Spencer Strider or Spencer Schwellenbach being key members of the rotation next year. Both looked like perennial Cy Young Award candidates just a couple of years ago. But the elbow surgeries that have followed have created an uncertain future for both.
If you didn’t catch it in this story earlier this week, Strider is expected to be “full-go” at the start of Spring Training. That’s good to hear. But his recent health history creates reason to be skeptical about his ability to be durable enough to be an effective starter over an entire season. It won’t hurt to try him as a starter in Spring Training. But he might be best suited to serve as a reliever.
As for Schwellenbach, he spent more than a year trying to avoid the surgery he underwent in September. He’ll now attempt to pitch with a screw in his previously fractured elbow. He wouldn’t be the first to do so. But most pitchers who have done so have been relievers.
So, who joins Chris Sale, Bryce Elder and Grant Holmes in the rotation? Maybe Didier Fuentes. Possibly AJ Smith-Shawver. But if looking for the most likely addition, I’m guessing Tyler Mahle will re-sign with Atlanta.
3) If Fuentes moves to the bullpen, the Braves have yet another hole to fill in their relief corps. Closer Raisel Iglesias is a free agent, and Robert Suarez’s postseason performances can’t guarantee that the elbow issue that sidelined him for three months this year won’t be problematic again next year. Then you have Dylan Lee. Were his second-half struggles a product of fatigue?
4) So, the Braves might need to also add multiple relievers. But should they first address who will play shortstop? Everyone would gladly welcome Mauricio Dubón back to the clubhouse. But he’s going to get strong demand on a shortstop-thin market. If he doesn’t return, Jim Jarvis would be the top internal option. Trading for Jeremy Peña is also an attractive option if the Astros make him available.