This story was excerpted from Mark Bowman’s Braves Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ATLANTA -- Some of you may have noticed that you received Monday’s newsletter, which focused on Didier Fuentes’ success, a few hours before Fuentes surrendered Kyle Schwarber’s game-winning home run with two outs in the eighth inning.
So, in an attempt to avoid being a jinx again, I won’t focus on any one thing during this newsletter. Instead, I’ll just flood you with an array of thoughts.
1. I’m stubborn, but not stubborn enough to continue projecting AJ Smith-Shawver to be the Braves’ second-best option to start a playoff game. The thought was he would make steady progress over this month and be a dependable rotation option in the postseason. That was a lot to expect from anybody who has made just 20 career starts, five this season. And especially for somebody who is still just a little more than a year removed from Tommy John surgery.
But while Smith-Shawver might not be a good rotation option, he may be a good fit for the bullpen. Opponents facing the 23-year-old hurler for the first time in a game have batted .162 with a .608 OPS. He’s also posted a 1.80 ERA in the first inning of his five starts this year. So yeah, I’m taking a chance on that four-seam, splitter mix for some one-inning appearances.
They could at least give him a couple of relief appearances down the stretch to get a feel for how he might perform in the role. His 23.5 percent whiff rate is a concern. But opponents have whiffed on 31.6 percent of their swings against him in the first inning.
2. Speaking of the bullpen, lots of eyes will be on Robert Suarez as he attempts to rejoin Atlanta’s relief corps before the end of the regular season. Grouping a healthy Suarez with Raisel Iglesias, Dylan Lee and Fuentes would give the Braves one of the game’s best bullpen foursomes in October. Lee quieted some concerns when he halted his recent woes with a scoreless inning on Sunday. He might have been tipping his pitches, as he previously thought. But getting the necessary rest down the stretch might be the key to him being a consistent asset in the postseason.
Smith-Shawver’s move to the pen would remove some of Lee’s workload and create some insurance, should Suarez have a setback.
3. So, who will likely start for the Braves during the postseason? Tyler Mahle has a 1.24 ERA through six starts for Atlanta, and his most recent was his most impressive. His six scoreless innings in Sunday’s win over the Phillies provided a glimpse of what he could do against a legit lineup in a playoff-type atmosphere. Five months into the season, we’ve finally found the elusive Game 2 starter.
Like Mahle, Grant Holmes made a strong impression with his six scoreless innings and six strikeouts against the Phillies on Monday.
Like Mahle, Grant Holmes made a strong impression with his six scoreless innings and six strikeouts against the Phillies on Monday.
With the assumption that Chris Sale and Mahle won’t be needed during the regular season’s final weekend, they would start the first two games of a Wild Card series. As Bryce Elder will need to recover from knee surgery for the next three weeks, a Holmes/Martín Pérez piggyback might be the best option for Game 3.
Before Wednesday night’s game, I was thinking the Braves could use an opener and possibly have Reynaldo López follow with three to four innings. But he’s going to have to pitch much better in the last few weeks to become a postseason option.
4. The Braves enter Thursday four games behind the Dodgers in the battle for the second of the NL’s two postseason byes. So, it’s looking like Atlanta could host either the Padres or D-backs in the Wild Card Series, which is played three consecutive days. The bullpen would be tested if all three games were needed. But the relief corps has some enviable depth, especially if Suarez proves to be healthy enough to regain his dominant form.
Iglesias, Suarez, Lee and Fuentes are a formidable foursome. Add Dylan Dodd and possibly Smith-Shawver to the mix, and you have the kind of options any manager would want once the postseason arrives. Dodd allowed two home runs on Sunday. But whether using the eye test or metrics, you know he’s been one of the team’s best arms all year.
5. Matt Olson exited an Aug. 7 loss at Yankee Stadium with a .900 OPS, his highest mark since June 12. But he has hit .167 with a team-worst .533 OPS (among qualified players) and a 30 percent strikeout rate in the 29 games that have followed.
Ready for the bad news? Ozzie Albies (.568) and Mauricio Dubon (.585) have also produced a sub-.600 OPS during this stretch. Ronald Acuña Jr. (.774) and Drake Baldwin (.754) lead the way during this ugly stretch for the offense.
6. The good news is that Acuña has looked more like himself recently, and we saw how valuable that can be this past weekend.