The Braves may not have been taking a huge risk when they acquired Chris Sale in a one-for-one trade with the Red Sox at the end of 2023.
But they were certainly taking a chance.
Would one of the most dominant aces of the 2010s rediscover his previously elite form in his mid-30s? That was an open question after a bevy of injuries had limited the left-hander to just 151 total innings from 2020-23. Never mind the fact that his performance from 2019 onward (4.16 ERA, 113 ERA+) was multiple steps back from the first nine seasons of his career (2.89 ERA, 144 ERA+).
But going back to that posed query, the answer has been an overwhelming "yes."
Sale won the National League Cy Young Award in 2024, is a finalist for the honor again this year and has been an All-Star in each of his three seasons with Atlanta.
Here is where Sale's numbers over the past three seasons rank among starters with at least 400 innings pitched since the beginning of '24:
- ERA: 2.36 (1st)
- FIP: 2.31 (1st)
- Strikeout rate: 31.7% (1st)
- Strikeout-minus-walk rate: 26.2% (2nd)
- Pitching run value: +88 (3rd)
- WHIP: 1.02 (7th)
What makes this run even more remarkable -- and in some ways historic -- is that Sale was 35 years old at the outset. He turned 37 just after the beginning of the 2026 season. We simply don't see many starting pitchers who are this good in their mid-30s.
Consider that Sale's ERA+ has been north of 160 in each of his three seasons as a Brave. In other words, when you account for external factors such as park effects and opponents, his ERA was at least 60% better than the league average for that season.
Here are the pitchers in the Modern Era (since 1900) who have compiled three or more such seasons at age 35 and older (minimum 120 innings pitched each year):
- Lefty Grove, Red Sox: 1935-36, 1938-39
- Randy Johnson, D-backs: 1999-2002, 2004
- Justin Verlander, Astros: 2018-19, 2022
- Chris Sale, Braves: 2024-26
Sale and Johnson are the only starters to string together three consecutive seasons with a 160 ERA+ or better at such an advanced age. Quick aside: The Big Unit turned 41 years old during that 2004 season, which is just wild to think about.
Here are a few more factoids about Sale's three years of dominance that stick out:
- Sale's 31.7% strikeout rate and 26.2% K-BB rate during this stretch are both the best in the Modern Era among starters age 35 or older (min. 400 IP). Johnson is second in both categories (28.9% and 22.6%, respectively).
- Regardless of age, only one Braves starter in the Modern Era has recorded a 160 or better ERA+ in at least three consecutive seasons. That would be Greg Maddux, who reached that standard in every year from 1993-98.
- Sale's 178 ERA+ from 2024-26 was obviously the best in MLB. And only one starter over the past decade has exceeded that number over any three-season span: Jacob deGrom, who posted a 188 ERA+ across 489 innings with the Mets from 2018-20.
This all leads us to one big question:
Can Sale keep this up?
It's not like this past season provided any reason to worry about Sale's immediate future as a frontline starter. His 196 ERA+ was his second-best mark in a full season, behind only his 209 ERA+ in 2018. He finished with 200 strikeouts for a ninth time. He had a 30.9% K rate and the best walk rate among qualified NL pitchers (4.8%). He turned in one of the best single-game performances of his decorated 16-season career in late August.
We also shouldn't worry about Sale's tank hitting empty in the very near future after he threw his four-seamer harder than in any year prior -- 96.1 mph. That's a 1.3 mph increase from 2024 and '25. He also fired a 100 mph strikeout pitch for the first time in eight years.
Father Time comes for everyone. And considering Sale's injury history, there is always going to be a little bit of risk baked into his profile. But much like three years ago, the risk attached to Sale pales in comparison to the upside he presents whenever he's healthy and has a baseball in his left hand.