Burnes puts finishing touches on Cy bid

Ace finishes 2021 regular season with 2.43 ERA, leading numerous categories

October 3rd, 2021

LOS ANGELES -- Perhaps in a different situation, a different season, Corbin Burnes surrenders Justin Turner’s three-run home run in the first inning on Saturday at Dodger Stadium and remains in the game long enough to cement his case for the National League Cy Young Award.

But in this situation, and this season, one in which the Brewers have been protective of their starting pitchers while riding their excellence to a division title, Burnes did not get the opportunity to pitch beyond the second inning of an 8-3 loss to the Dodgers.

“Manager’s decision,” was the word from the team.

Turns out, Burnes had a part in the decision.

“It was kind of left up to me if I wanted to pitch or If I didn’t want to pitch,” he said, opting for the former to avoid two full weeks between his start a week ago against the Mets and a presumed start in Game 1 of the National League Division Series against the Braves. “We threw a lot of pitches in the first two innings, so we felt we got enough work in and mixed some stuff in. It was just about getting out there and touching the mound.”

Now it’s up to Cy Young Award voters to decide.

Or rather, it will be up for them to decide once the Dodgers’ Walker Buehler and perhaps Max Scherzer complete their own cases.

After Burnes allowed three earned runs on two hits in two innings of his regular-season swan song, here are the final statistics for one of the finest seasons for a pitcher in Brewers franchise history: In 28 starts he went 11-5 with a 2.43 ERA, lowest in the Majors pending Buehler (2.49 ERA) in his scheduled start on Sunday and, if necessary, Scherzer (2.46 ERA) in a potential Game 163 against the Giants.

Burnes’ ERA is the second lowest for a qualifying pitcher in Brewers history, behind Mike Caldwell’s 2.36 in 1978. If neither Buehler nor Scherzer surpasses him, Burnes would be the first pitcher in Brewers history to win his league’s ERA title.

As of Saturday night, Burnes led the Majors in strikeout rate (35.6 percent, eighth best all time), strikeouts per nine innings (12.61, eighth best all time), FIP (1.62, second best in the divisional era to Pedro Martinez’s 1.39 in 1999), strikeouts to walks (6.88), home runs per nine innings (0.38), percentage of barrels (2.9 percent) and Fangraphs WAR (7.5).

Along the way, Burnes combined with Josh Hader for a no-hitter on Sept. 11 at Cleveland and matched the MLB record by striking out 10 consecutive batters on Aug. 11 at the Cubs, and he began the season by breaking the MLB record with 58 strikeouts before he issued his first walk.

Burnes’ 0.94 WHIP is second in the Majors to Scherzer’s 0.86. Burnes’ .199 opponents’ average made him one of four pitchers in the Majors below .200, with Scherzer (.184), Buehler (.198) and Brewers teammate Brandon Woodruff (.198).

Burnes wasn’t ready to assess any of those numbers.

Not with the postseason looming.

“Not yet. We still have a lot of baseball left,” he said. “As far as I’m concerned, that’s still part of the season.”

The only area in which Burnes is not among the elites is innings pitched. As of the close of business Saturday, 30 pitchers in the Majors, including 18 in the NL, had logged more than Burnes’ 167 innings. If there is a knock on Burnes’ candidacy, it is that other contenders like the Dodgers’ Scherzer (179 1/3 innings), Buehler (202 2/3 innings) and Julio Urías (185 2/3 innings) or the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler (213 1/3 innings) worked more innings while also pitching at an elite level.

But that is little fault of Burnes, who made every turn in the rotation (aside from two weeks on the COVID-19 injured list in late April and early May).

“I don’t think he should be dinged for our overall plan of how we have used our guys,” Brewers pitching coach Chris Hook said. “It wasn’t because of injury, per se. I think [voters] have to take that into account.

“I think he should be the frontrunner. This is where old school, new school metrics [clash]. You hear people say, ‘I would like to see the guy who gives you the most innings.’ But I mean, he would have given the innings if we would have given him the chance.”

The Brewers came off last year’s pandemic-shortened season planning to use a six-man rotation to manage workloads as MLB reverted to 162 games. Burnes and Woodruff made only two starts apiece on the standard four days’ rest. Every other outing came on at least five days’ rest.

“I don’t think [the innings question] is a knock,” Counsell said. “He’s right there with the innings. It was our doing. It was also to keep him healthy and effective. I think it’s worked. I don’t want to say ‘worked’ because it’s not the [only] reason, but hopefully, it’s been a small factor to it.”

Counsell added, “I’m not sorry we did it. I’m happy we did it.”