MILWAUKEE -- The Brewers have spent a year building toward another shot at the Dodgers. Los Angeles has spent it chasing a third straight championship.
Now, the National League’s top two teams meet again, with a World Series berth at stake.
The NL Championship Series begins Sunday night at American Family Field, where Milwaukee will try to turn a franchise-record 103-win season into its first pennant since 1982. The Dodgers swept last year’s matchup.
For Brewers manager Pat Murphy, that’s how a storybook ending should go.
“If it’s going to be that incredible story, you want it to go through the Dodgers,” Murphy said Saturday.
Both clubs advanced through the NL Division Series in four games. Here are four factors that could determine which team moves on.
1. Which version of Ohtani shows up?
The Brewers won’t have to face Shohei Ohtani on the mound this time. The batter’s box is plenty to worry about.
Ohtani capped last year’s sweep by hitting three home runs while throwing six scoreless innings with 10 strikeouts in Game 4. Injuries have kept him out of this year’s pitching plans, and his bat hasn’t supplied its usual thunder. After posting a .566 OPS in eight September games while spending much of the month on the injured list, he went 2-for-13 against Atlanta in the NLDS and dropped to fifth in the order for Game 3.
A breakout could transform the Dodgers’ offense. But manager Dave Roberts isn’t measuring Ohtani’s impact solely by balls over the fence.
“Shohei is known for his slug, but when you’re facing Jacob [Misiorowski], it’s just, you’ve got to take good at-bats,” Roberts said. “If you run into a homer, great. But if you can earn a walk, fantastic.”
Misiorowski won’t be treating Ohtani any differently when he takes the mound in Game 1.
“You got to still pitch like he’s the best in the world and trust your stuff and go beat him at his game and do your job,” Misiorowski said.
2. Can Milwaukee clean up the extra outs defensively?
The Brewers survived five errors against the Padres. Giving this Dodgers lineup extra chances could prove more costly.
Milwaukee committed three errors in Game 2, then a Cooper Pratt throwing error allowed a run to score in a one-run Game 3 loss. Those mistakes also ask more of a pitching staff now navigating a best-of-seven series.
For Los Angeles, extending an inning could mean another opportunity for Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman or Max Muncy.
Pratt’s big defensive plays in the clincher encouraged Murphy.
“Things are going to go haywire, and [you have to] be able to respond,” Murphy said.
Milwaukee needs its usually reliable defense to keep the Dodgers from finding openings without manufacturing them.
3. Which rotation can dictate the series?
One run a game. That’s all Milwaukee managed in last year’s sweep.
Now the Dodgers have added Tarik Skubal to a rotation featuring Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. Skubal gets Game 1 opposite Misiorowski, but there isn’t an obvious breather afterward.
“We talked about coming into the series that our starting rotation, we felt like, was a real strength of ours,” Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said after the NLDS clincher.
Milwaukee has Misiorowski and Logan Henderson lined up for the first two games, giving the Brewers a better chance to match zeros than last October.
Both offenses need to create enough traffic to force those starters out. Milwaukee will lean on patient at-bats, contact and extra bases.
“You understand like there’s not going to be probably a lot of scoring opportunities,” Christian Yelich said. “So when you do get them, you have to be able to execute and take advantage of that and really lock it in.”
4. Can Turang give Milwaukee another October threat?
Brice Turang has batted .278 with an .805 OPS over his previous two standout regular seasons. The Brewers could use more of that production now.
Turang opened the Padres series 0-for-10 before delivering a two-out single in the seventh inning of Game 3. Milwaukee advanced despite his 2-for-16 showing. Through 18 career postseason games, he’s gone 11-for-65 (.169) with a .516 OPS.
Murphy cautioned against judging Turang by a small sample, citing his homer in last year’s NLDS Game 5 and his final two at-bats in this year’s clincher.
While Murphy was at the ballpark with his children Friday night, Turang was still taking swings off the Trajekt machine.
“He’s a baseball guy, man,” Murphy said. “He loves it. There’s nothing he’d rather do.”
A breakout would deepen Milwaukee’s offense when opportunities are scarce. Keeping him quiet would help Los Angeles limit the pressure around Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Yelich.