MILWAUKEE -- From the halls of the front office to the dugout rail to the press box dining room, it was the question of the day on Sunday at American Family Field while the Brewers put the finishing touches on the finest regular season in franchise history.
Cubs or Padres, who ya got?
The Brewers will work out, run through drills and play intrasquad games this week while awaiting the result of the best-of-three National League Wild Card Series between the Cubs and Padres in San Diego, the winner of which will come to Milwaukee for Game 1 of the NL Division Series on Saturday. Everyone has their theory of who the Brewers should want to face.
If manager Pat Murphy has a pick, he obviously wasn’t going to say so publicly.
“We’re going to play the Cubs or the Padres,” he said. “The Cubs know us very, very well. That’ll be a challenge, just the familiarity and the emotion. The Padres have beaten us the past [three] years more than we’ve beaten them. They swept us down there [in August]. They’re really hot. They have a team of veterans that have been knocking on the door and knocking on the door and knocking on the door of the World Series.
“Yeah, it all depends. We’ll deal with it when we get there.”
In the meantime, here’s a guide to each potential matchup.
You decide which you’d like to see.
If the regular season is a guide …
The Brewers have lost their regular season series with the Padres in each of the past three seasons while going 2-8 at Petco Park. This year’s miserable trip to San Diego was a major turning point, because it was the three-game sweep in which Milwaukee’s hitters went 3-for-28 with 12 strikeouts with runners in scoring position and Jake Bauers provided this prescription:
“I just think we need to chill the [bleep] out a little bit,” Bauers said.
Then they went up to Dodger Stadium, won three of four from the Dodgers to claim MLB’s best record for good, and never looked back again.
Two weeks later, the Brewers and Cubs began a stretch of seven head-to-head matchups in 10 days that offered Chicago one last chance to claw back into the NL Central race. The Brewers didn’t let it happen, winning five of those matchups including a three-game sweep in Milwaukee in the teams’ final meeting of the regular season from Sept. 7-9. The Brewers finished 9-4 against the Cubs this season, including 4-0 in Jacob Misiorowski’s starts.
Better matchup for the Brewers: Cubs
Looking at the lineups
The Brewers have all week to make roster decisions, including which of their young left-handed starting pitchers to carry on the NLDS roster, and whether to include right-handed veteran Dustin May. Murphy has already said that left-handers Robert Gasser and Shane Drohan are on the roster in some capacity. If Kyle Harrison is, too, then the Brewers are flush with lefties when you include leverage relievers Aaron Ashby, JoJo Romero and DL Hall.
But that would balance the righty starters. Misiorowski is a lock for Game 1 and Logan Henderson is throwing a simulated game on Tuesday, lining him up to start Game 2.
How would that pitching mix match up against each potential opponent?
Most of the Padres’ best top hitters are right-handed: First baseman Ty France, right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr., shortstop Xander Bogaerts, third baseman Manny Machado and catcher Luis Campusano. And yet they fared slightly better against right-handed pitching (102 wRC+, .401 slugging percentage) than left-handed pitching (98 wRC+, .390 slugging percentage) this season.
The Cubs are more balanced as fas as handedness -- NL MVP Award frontrunner Pete Crow-Armstrong, first baseman Michael Busch and switch-hitting left fielder Ian Happ are left-handed threats, and right fielder Seiya Suzuki and third baseman Alex Bregman provide significant problems as right-handed hitters, provided Bregman is himself after suffering facial fractures after he was hit by a foul ball in the on-deck circle during the final week of the regular season (and he was himself on Sunday). The Cubs led the Majors in wRC+ and slugging percentage against left-handed pitching (122, .447) while tying for first in wRC+ (112) and ranking fourth in slugging (.422) against right-handed pitching.
There are other ways to slice the matchup than left-right. With Misiorowski starting one and maybe two games of the series, and Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill at the end of games, the Brewers will feature high-velocity fastballs in this series. The Padres ranked eighth in the Majors in weighted on base average against fastballs at 95-plus mph (.325) and the Cubs were 25th (.308).
Better matchup for the Brewers: Padres
What about the opposing pitching?
Right-hander Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA) gets the ball for the Padres in Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series, coming off a stellar season in which he established himself as the Padres’ ace and the stopper in a rotation that featured major question marks throughout the summer. The rest of the series is a bit less clear. Righty Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA), who missed five months with a flexor strain, but has been solid since his return, may be ahead of left-hander Robbie Ray (13-8, 3.59) and right-hander Walker Buehler (9-6, 4.56 ERA).
As for the Cubs, they had not announced a Game 1 starter against the Padres, but the leading candidates were left-hander Matthew Boyd (10-5, 3.91 ERA) and right-hander Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.51 ERA). Righty Clay Holmes (6-8, 3.29 ERA), lefty Shota Imanaga (11-10, 3.77 ERA) and lefty David Peterson (9-8, 4.79 ERA) are the other starters after the Cubs loaded up on experienced pitching via in-season trades. They are monitoring Gausman (soreness in his non-throwing shoulder) to gauge his availability.
The big difference is in the bullpens. The Padres have arguably the best bullpen in baseball, led by All-Star closer Mason Miller and left-handed setup man Adrian Morejon. The Cubs don’t have a set closer, and their bullpen corps absorbed seven losses in September, third-most in the Majors over the final month.
Better matchup for the Brewers: Cubs
What about the intangibles?
Every good series needs some villains, and either matchup would provide it. Machado has been booed mercilessly every single time he has stepped into the batter’s box in Milwaukee since he stepped on the back of Brewers first baseman Jesús Aguilar’s leg in Game 4 of the 2018 NLCS. The American Family Field faithful know how to keep the grudge, as Cubs manager Craig Counsell can attest. The fans have let him have it every time he’s been announced as Chicago’s manager over the past three seasons since making the move. Crow-Armstrong is another lightning rod, if only because he is the best player on the Brewers’ chief rival.
Better matchup for the Brewers: Toss-up