LOS ANGELES -- The Padres know this at least: If it comes down to the final series of the season, they only need to beat the Diamondbacks once this weekend at Petco Park to secure their place in the postseason.
Of course … they’d rather not let it get that far.
But there’s work to do, after Tuesday’s 7-0 loss to the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Here’s some reaction from Dodger Stadium:
The state of the race
It had been a while since the Padres actually lost ground in their battle with the Diamondbacks. (Seventeen days, to be precise.) But they did on Tuesday night, when Arizona won in Colorado, 7-2.
“It's just one game,” said manager Craig Stammen. “We've got five more ahead of us. Tomorrow, everything starts anew.”
The Padres’ recent surge gave them enough of a cushion where they could afford a night like this one. Their lead over Arizona in the NL Wild Card race is four games, and the Padres could clinch as soon as Wednesday with a win and a Diamondbacks loss.
Still, the Padres are at risk of handing the impetus back to Arizona. With one more San Diego loss, the D-backs would again control their own destiny. (Though, again, they would need to win all three at Petco Park this weekend.)
Meanwhile, the Padres missed a chance to move into the top Wild Card spot in the NL, after the Cubs lost to the Marlins. Instead, Chicago, San Diego and Philadelphia are all currently tied at 87-70.
The top Wild Card spot, of course, comes with home-field advantage in the Wild Card Series. But the Padres, having lost the tiebreaker against both the Cubs and Phillies, currently project as the No. 6 seed -- which likely comes with a trip to Atlanta.
What’s next for King?
This wasn’t Michael King’s best. Far from it. The Padres right-hander allowed five runs over four innings. He’d allowed five total runs across his previous five starts.
Most of the damage on Tuesday came with two outs in the second. King retired the first two Dodgers he faced in the inning … then completely lost his command, allowing the next six hitters to reach base. L.A. scored four in the frame.
“I just lost it,” King said. “Threw a lot more offspeed pitches than I did in the first [inning] -- and I just didn’t have command of the offspeed.”
It was a rare rough outing for King, who has mostly pitched well against the Dodgers. The Padres will nonetheless feel supremely confident when King takes the ball next.
The only question there is … when will that be?
The Padres bumped King up a day, so he could start Tuesday’s game, because it would line him up to pitch the season finale in the event that game proves decisive. Otherwise? He would almost certainly be bumped back to pitch Game 1 of the Wild Card Series next Tuesday.
And just to clarify: It sounds like that will be true, even if home-field advantage is on the line on the season’s final day. Stammen indicated as much before the game.
The Padres are 49-29 at Petco Park this season. But they’d obviously rather have King on the mound than not in a short playoff series. He’s been their best pitcher by far this season, and even with Tuesday’s dud, King sports a 3.21 ERA across 32 starts.
“Obviously, today sucked,” King said. “I’ve still got a lot of confidence I’ll make the right adjustments and be ready to go in the next one.”
That next one will be a big one -- whether it comes Sunday or Tuesday.
Back to reality?
For two weeks, the Padres were the hottest team in baseball. They won 13 of 14 games. That started with a Sunday afternoon victory over the Yankees, and was followed by series against the Nationals, Giants, Rockies and Marlins.
Notably … the Padres won’t be playing the Nationals, Giants, Rockies and Marlins in October.
Perhaps this was a dose of reality. Eight Dodgers pitchers combined to shut out the Padres on Tuesday night (evoking painful memories of L.A.’s bullpen game in Game 4 of the 2024 NLDS).
“The Dodgers’ bullpen’s got some good arms in it,” Stammen said. “They’re bringing out guys that have really good stuff. … We’ve seen their arms now for the rest of the series. Hopefully that benefits us going forward.”
It’s worth reiterating that those last two weeks of games count, too. The Padres needed to get hot -- and they did. So hot, in fact, that they left themselves room for error this week in L.A.
They shouldn’t apologize for winning those series. But it’s clear much tougher tests await in the coming days. And, they hope, weeks.