Clevinger: Elbow impingement, return TBD

September 25th, 2020

Whether pitches for the Padres this October might depend on how deep the Padres play into October.

Clevinger was diagnosed with a right posterior elbow impingement and received a cortisone injection on Friday. The team has not ruled out a start for Clevinger in the National League Wild Card Series next week.

“Listening to our doctors, listening to our training staff, they’re not ruling him out from pitching in games as soon as next week,” said Padres general manager A.J. Preller. “We’re going to see how it plays out. ... We’ll really just go day-to-day, honestly. Each day we’ll see how he feels and progress from there.”

The good news: Clevinger avoided long-term injury. The bad news: The Padres are less than a week away from the start of their first postseason in 14 years, and they might be without their prized Trade Deadline acquisition, at least at the start. Here’s what it means:

What does it mean for Clevinger?

Clevinger received his cortisone injection on Friday, and Preller indicated that if he progresses as expected, he could play catch on Monday. Rosters for the Wild Card Series are due on Wednesday morning, and Preller indicated that Clevinger’s potential inclusion is a decision that might come down to the wire.

It's been a season of fits and starts for Clevinger. He went three weeks without appearing in a game earlier this year after being placed on the restricted list for violating health and safety protocols. Then, he endured a topsy-turvy Trade Deadline and didn't pitch for eight days -- a couple of which were spent packing and travelling.

Clevinger had finally found a rhythm when he shut out the Giants over seven innings on Sept. 13, lowering his ERA to 3.10.

Then his biceps barked. He was scratched from his start Saturday but reported a pain-free bullpen session on Monday. That lined him up for a start Wednesday against the Angels, and on a first-inning curveball to Jared Walsh, it barked again.

The Padres have reason not to rush Clevinger back. They acquired him in a pricey nine-player blockbuster, and Clevinger has two years remaining in San Diego before he hits free agency.

“It’s all about his health, both in the short term and obviously in the long term,” Preller said. “The real positive news as well is hearing the doctors talk about the fact that if he responds well to the injection, which they anticipate he will, that he’s got a possibility to pitch for us here as soon as next week.”

What does this mean for the Wild Card Series?

The right-hander was in line to start Game 1, but the Padres could use Dinelson Lamet in his place on normal rest. Lamet was slated to start the second game of Friday's doubleheader.

There’s hardly a drop-off from Clevinger to Lamet, who owned a 2.07 ERA entering Friday and is chasing the Reds’ Trevor Bauer for the NL strikeout title. There's a case that Lamet is the Padres' ace, even with Clevinger.

The impact would be felt later in the series. Manager Jayce Tingler indicated that it’s possible the Padres move Zach Davies' scheduled start from Sunday to Saturday. That would line Davies up to pitch in Game 2, potentially giving Clevinger another day to recover. (Davies has had a sneaky excellent season, with a 2.85 ERA and no more than three earned runs allowed in any of his 11 starts.)

If there’s a decisive Game 3 it seemingly comes down to Clevinger or Chris Paddack. It's been a roller-coaster season for Paddack, who is coming off six one-hit innings against Seattle. He has mixed a few of those excellent starts with a handful of duds. In a three-game series, the Padres can't afford a dud. They'd planned to avoid that volatility by saving Paddack for the NL Division Series.

What does this mean for the Padres’ overall playoff picture?

The Padres were planning for a four-man playoff rotation, adding Paddack to the mix after using Clevinger, Lamet and Davies in their best-of-three. If the No. 5 spot in the rotation came up, they'd ask one of their starters to work on three days’ rest or they’d fashion a bullpen game.

With that roadmap, the Padres moved Garrett Richards to the bullpen earlier this month. They planned to use him as a righty weapon and a long man, and that’s still the plan, Tingler confirmed.

It leaves serious question marks about the Padres’ pitching plans if they advance past the first round -- with no off-days in the NL Division or Championship Series.

The Padres might still ask Richards to assume the No. 4 spot in their rotation -- but as a shorter option, before they turn the ball over their bullpen (a common occurrence in the postseason anyway).

Of course, the Padres won’t have to deal with these question marks until the later rounds. As such, it’s a conundrum they’d be happy to face.

The best answer, of course, would be a healthy Clevinger.