Padres primer: Bunting with two strikes

September 7th, 2022

This story was excerpted from AJ Cassavell’s Padres Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

“What is he doing?!” you may have shouted at your TV at some point over the past month when has attempted to drop a bunt down with two strikes. I’ve definitely seen some of you in my Twitter mentions asking that exact question.

Sure looks strange, doesn’t it? You foul off a bunt with two strikes -- as Grisham has now done four times -- and you strike out.

But here’s the thing: Grisham already has two strikes. He’s usually facing a tough left-hander. His odds of reaching base are low. (With two strikes this season, he’s reaching at a .244 clip.) Meanwhile, Grisham is one of the sport’s best bunters, leading the NL with eight bunt hits.

That’s why the Padres approached him with an idea earlier this summer:

“We look at it like: ‘As well as you handle the bat, when it’s a tough matchup with two strikes, if you can get one out of three or two out of four of these down, you’re going to increase your times on base,’” manager Bob Melvin said.

Here’s how it works in real time: Opposing teams know Grisham is an elite bunter. They bring their third baseman in with no strikes or one strike. But with two strikes, that third baseman typically meanders to the right side of the field, expecting the lefty-hitting Grisham to pull the ball. That leaves the entire left side open.

“If I have the whole side of the field to work with and the situation is a good one, then I think I can get it down,” Grisham said.

So far, Grisham has made it work just once in his five attempts (a two-strike bunt hit against the Marlins on Aug. 16). Those other four occasions look bad because, well ...

“It’s really never been done before,” Melvin said.

But why is a foul-bunt strikeout worse than, say, a regular strikeout or a weak ground ball? Statistically, that’s what’s likeliest to happen anyway when Grisham gets to two strikes against a tough left-hander.

The biggest downside is that Grisham -- while perhaps enhancing his odds of reaching base -- has removed any chance of slugging from the equation. That’s why the Padres don’t want him bunting every time. It needs to be the right situation -- typically against a very tough pitcher whom Grisham would have a hard time squaring up, and ideally in a spot where reaching base is more important than power.

“It all starts with just looking at batting averages with two strikes,” said Melvin. “The next facet of that is: He is very good at bunting, one of the better bat-handlers I’ve seen. So then you try and find the right spots to do it.”

Said Grisham: “It’s all about choosing the situations, I think. Maybe when I’m not hitting well, it’s about trying to find a way on base. If I get to a two-strike count -- depending on where I’m at in the lineup, depending on who’s behind me, depending on where the baserunners are, what point in the game -- it’s about weighing all those factors and making a decision.”