Braves-Phillies Opening Day starting pitchers: Strider vs. Wheeler

March 19th, 2024

The Braves have remained one of baseball’s elite teams in the years since they won the 2021 World Series.

They won 101 games in 2022, and 104 games in 2023. But those seasons both ended with losses to the Phillies in the NL Division Series. Few will be able to forget Bryce Harper staring down Orlando Arcia (“Atta boy, Harper!”) twice after homering twice in Game 3 of the 2023 NLDS.

Atlanta hopes to exorcize its Philly demons on Opening Day on March 28 at Citizens Bank Park. Both the Braves and Phillies have legitimate World Series aspirations. It would not be surprising to see them back at the Bank again in October.

Here is a look at the Opening Day starters:

Spencer Strider

Previous Opening Day starts: None

2023 Season: 20-5, 3.86 ERA, 32 starts, 186 2/3 innings, 281 strikeouts, 58 walks, 3.4 bWAR

Strider established himself as the game’s top strikeout artist during his first two full big league seasons. By adding a curveball to his repertoire, he has strengthened his NL Cy Young Award candidacy and improved his bid for a 300-strikeout season.

This first Opening Day start will give the hard-throwing Braves hurler a chance to be back on the mound where both of his first two seasons ended. He was severely limited by an oblique strain when he faltered in the third inning of Game 3 of the 2022 National League Division Series in Philadelphia. Then he allowed three solo homers over 5 2/3 innings when the Braves’ 2023 season ended with a Game 4 NLDS road loss to the Phillies.

Strider has tallied a Major League-leading 483 strikeouts since the start of 2022. The Yankees' Gerrit Cole ranks second with 479 strikeouts, but he’s thrown 91 1/3 more innings than the Strider in that span

It’s never wise to put too much credence in Spring Training numbers. But it’s certainly worth noting that Strider hasn’t allowed a run while striking out 40.8 percent of the batters he’s faced through his first five Grapefruit League starts.

Zack Wheeler

Previous Opening Day starts: None.

2023 Season: 13-6, 3.61 ERA, 32 starts, 192 innings, 212 strikeouts, 39 walks, 4.3 bWAR

Aaron Nola suggested a couple weeks ago that Wheeler should be the Phillies’ Opening Day starter, even though he himself had made the last six season-opening starts for the Phillies.

“Wheels should take it,” Nola said. “He’s earned it, man.”

Phillies manager Rob Thomson announced on Sunday that Wheeler will start the Opening Day matchup on March 28 against the Braves at Citizens Bank Park. It will be the first season-opening start of Wheeler’s career.

“It’s special,” Wheeler said. “It’s a pretty cool honor.”

Earlier this month, the Phillies recognized Wheeler’s place in the game with a three-year, $126 million contract extension. It is the highest average annual value ($42 million) for a contract extension in MLB history. It is the third-highest AAV for any pitcher behind Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, and the fourth-highest AAV for any player behind Shohei Ohtani, Scherzer and Verlander.

Wheeler got the deal because he has been arguably baseball’s best pitcher the past four years. He is 43-25 with a 3.06 ERA in 101 starts since he joined the Phillies prior to the 2020 season. It is the fourth-best ERA in the Majors in that time (minimum 500 innings), trailing only Corbin Burnes (2.86), Scherzer (2.94) and Shane Bieber (2.98). Wheeler's 19.6 bWAR and 19.3 fWAR over the past four years are both the best in MLB among pitchers.

Wheeler also has a 2.42 ERA over the past two postseasons, which is the sixth-best in MLB history (minimum 10 postseason starts).