This story was excerpted from Paul Casella's Phillies Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
ANAHEIM -- The Phillies are entering a pivotal two-week stretch that will have a substantial impact on their potential postseason positioning.
And they’re doing so in the best position they’ve been in months.
Not only are the Phillies tied with the Cubs for the first National League Wild Card spot, but they’re as close to the NL East-leading Braves (five games back) as they are to the Padres (the first team out of the postseason picture).
Starting on Monday night in Arizona, each of the Phillies’ next 13 games will be played against a team currently in postseason contention. That stretch begins with a three-game series against the D-backs that could determine the head-to-head tiebreaker, and it also features seven games against the NL East-leading Braves.
“It's that time of year where it's time to start chasing the division,” catcher J.T. Realmuto said following Sunday’s sweep of the Angels.
With the September gauntlet in focus, let’s take a closer look at how things are shaping up in both the NL East and the NL Wild Card:
What’s at stake: The winner of the NL East is guaranteed a top-3 seed in the postseason. Here’s a closer look at the Phillies’ situation:
• If the Phillies were to win the NL East as the No. 3 overall seed in the NL, they would host a best-of-three Wild Card Series against the final Wild Card team.
• If the Phillies were to win the NL East as the No. 2 overall seed in the NL, they would get a first-round bye. The Braves and Dodgers are currently tied for the No. 2 seed.
Tiebreaker situations
• The Phillies are just 1-5 vs. the Braves this season, though they still have seven head-to-head meetings remaining.
• If it comes into play for the No. 2 seed, the Dodgers own the tiebreaker over the Phillies by virtue of winning the season series (4-2).
Remaining schedules
Phillies:
• at D-backs (3 games)
• vs. Braves (4)
• vs. Astros (3)
• at Braves (3)
• at Nationals (2)
• at Mets (4)
• vs. Brewers (3)
• vs. Rays (3)
Braves:
• vs. Giants (1 game)
• at Nationals (2)
• at Phillies (4)
• vs. Rays (3)
• vs. Phillies (3)
• at Cubs (3)
• at Astros (3)
• vs. Reds (3)
• vs. Marlins (3)
Obviously, the seven head-to-head games are by far the most important when it comes to the NL East race. But if the Phillies can stay within striking distance, they come out of that final meeting with six games against the Nationals and Mets, while the Braves play six against the Cubs and Astros.
The Phillies have a tougher final week, but it’s anyone’s guess as to what, if anything, the Brewers and Rays -- the top seeds in the NL and AL, respectively -- will be playing for at that point.
So, what else is there to play for? Well ...
What’s at stake:
• If the Phillies earn the top NL Wild Card spot, they would host the best-of-three Wild Card Series against the second Wild Card team.
• If the Phillies earn the second NL Wild Card spot, they would go on the road for the best-of-three series against the top Wild Card team.
• If the Phillies earn the final NL Wild Card spot, they would go on the road for a best-of-three series against the NL division winner with the worst record.
Tiebreaker situations
• Phillies clinched the tiebreaker vs. the Padres (6-0)
• Phillies lost the tiebreaker vs. the Cubs (1-6)
• The tiebreaker vs. the D-backs is undecided this week. The Phillies are 1-2 vs. Arizona entering the three-game series that begins Monday at Chase Field. If the head-to-head series finishes tied, the next tiebreaker is intradivision record.
Let’s take a look at the remaining schedule for each of the four clubs in the thick of the Wild Card race:
Perhaps the most notable thing overall is that last series of the season between the Padres and D-backs. It’s entirely possible the final NL Wild Card spot comes down to that last weekend -- and that could be wildly beneficial to whoever has to play that No. 6 seed in the Wild Card Series.
But zeroing in on the Phillies’ path to the top Wild Card spot, the Cubs will have their hands full over the next few weeks. They still have a pair of series remaining against the MLB-best Brewers, starting Monday in Chicago.
That said, it’s still a potentially easier path than the Phillies, who have only two series remaining against non-contenders (Nationals and Mets). Again, that last weekend of the season could be interesting, as it’s unclear whether the Rays (playing the Phillies) or the Red Sox (playing the Cubs) will have anything to play for.