AL-best Rays, red-hot Red Sox meet for 4-game divisional showdown at Fenway

BOSTON -- After a convincing victory over the National League in Tuesday night’s All-Star Game, what better way for the American League to get back to action than sending the AL’s best team to face the league’s hottest team?

How about exactly that, but with two division rivals playing four games in three days?

That is what’s in store this weekend at Fenway Park, where the resurgent Red Sox (46-48) will host the Rays (56-38) to begin the unofficial “second half” of the season. It starts with a split doubleheader on Friday, followed by a Saturday afternoon showdown and Sunday’s series finale.

The Rays own an advantage in the season series so far, having taken two of three from the Red Sox at Fenway Park in May before sweeping a three-game series at Tropicana Field last month.

Let’s check in with MLB.com’s beat reporters to see how the AL East rivals are looking ahead of this series.

What’s the state of each team?

Adam Berry, Rays beat reporter: Assuming all is well with Junior Caminero after his All-Star Game scare, the Rays should be feeling pretty good about themselves. They withstood a rough stretch from late May to late June, when they went 9-18, and reclaimed a three-game edge for the AL’s best record by going 13-5 between June 24 and last Sunday. (That would’ve been tied for the best record in baseball during that stretch ... if not for the Red Sox, who are 14-3 in that timeframe.)

The tough stretch was a reminder that they can’t afford many more extended slumps, but the way they bounced back validated their belief it was just a rough patch. Despite repeated questions about sustainability and more focus being placed on their underperforming peers, their formula is still working.

Ian Browne, Red Sox beat reporter: With the out-of-nowhere 14-2 tear the Red Sox went on before the All-Star break, the team is clearly feeling some swagger, and now they have the challenge of keeping it going after a four-day break. Starting pitching has been the strength of the team all year, but two key lefty rotation members (Connelly Early and Ranger Suarez) went on the 15-day injured list recently. The club hopes Suarez, who had to surrender his spot on the All-Star team, can return from his left groin strain in the second series after the break against the Orioles. Willson Contreras, the team’s best hitter this season, will serve the final game of his five-game suspension in the opener of Friday’s doubleheader.

What does this series mean for each team?

Berry: For the Rays, it is a chance to set a tone coming out of the All-Star break. They’re going to hit the ground running with a lot of baseball, including eight games over seven days in Boston and Toronto followed by three more at home against Cleveland, before their next scheduled off-day. The Red Sox have been playing really well, so it’s a good test -- especially for a Tampa Bay team that’s just 21-23 on the road while being dominant (35-15) at home.

Browne: For the Red Sox, it is a chance to set an expectation that they can be a much better team at Fenway Park for the stretch run than they were prior to the All-Star break. Boston’s 17-37 record at home is second worst in the Majors coming out of the break. However, a four-game sweep against the Yankees on the most recent homestand could be a sign that the bats are ready to come alive at home. The other opportunity that presents itself is to start playing better against the AL East. Boston’s 10-17 mark within the division is currently the worst of the five teams in the AL East.

Is the Rays’ place atop the division for real, and are the Red Sox a threat to join the Yankees as contenders for the AL East title?

Berry: To answer the first part, yes. They’ve played nearly 60% of the season, and they have the best record in the AL. Yes, it’s been a down year for the league as a whole, and this is by no means a perfect team. But this is a very good team that has outplayed expectations for months. They have three of the best hitters in baseball atop the order -- All-Stars Yandy Díaz and Caminero and 2025 All-Star Jonathan Aranda -- along with four excellent starters, a couple dominant relievers (including All-Star closer Bryan Baker) and terrific defenders up the middle. FanGraphs gives Tampa Bay a 97.7% chance to make the postseason and a 55.7% chance to win the division.

Browne: The fact that the AL East is even a pipe dream for the Red Sox at this point represents progress. A 10-game deficit to the Rays and seven to the Yankees is a steep hill to climb with 68 games left. At this point, Boston is riding the high of being just a half-game out in the AL Wild Card standings -- something that didn’t seem possible a couple of weeks ago when the club was 14 games under .500. Per FanGraphs, the Sox have a 1.6 percent chance of winning the East, but are up to 40 percent to earn a playoff spot.

What’s the biggest concern for each team at the moment?

Berry: Well, any sort of injury to the players anchoring their lineup, rotation and bullpen would serve as a huge concern, so you can understand the initial anxiety about Caminero’s All-Star Game HBP. On a more practical level, it’s probably the lack of depth in the lineup. Aside from their “Big Three,” the only hitter on the team with an above-average OPS+ is Ryan Vilade (117 OPS+ in 152 plate appearances). There will be concerns about their starters’ workloads as the season goes on, and that could place a larger strain on the bullpen unless they find a way to add innings before the Trade Deadline.

Browne: Despite their recent success, it’s fair to say the Red Sox will have a hard time reaching their full potential if they don’t get two of their most important players back at some point in lefty ace Garrett Crochet and outfielder Roman Anthony. Crochet last pitched on April 25 before he was shut down with shoulder inflammation that has taken much longer to come back from than expected. At last check, he hadn’t resumed throwing. Then there is Anthony, who suffered a partially torn tendon in his left wrist/hand on May 4 and hadn’t started swinging in the days leading up to the All-Star break.

How do you see these teams handling the Trade Deadline at this point, and how could the next few weeks affect that?

Berry: I feel like I’ve written this 100 times in the last month, but it’s worth repeating: If the Rays are in position to win the division, they will be aggressive in their efforts to improve at the Deadline. President of baseball operations Erik Neander has shown that in the past, and there’s no doubt he wants to reward what these players have accomplished so far while giving them a better chance to succeed come October. Of course, that means the next few weeks are important. If they continue to play well, they’ll solidify their status as big-time buyers.

Browne: Make no mistake about it: The next few weeks will play a huge factor into how chief baseball officer Craig Breslow approaches the Trade Deadline. At this point, modest buyers would probably be the best way to describe the Red Sox. But a slump within the couple of weeks that reverses the team’s momentum could force Breslow to go the other way. Sonny Gray and Aroldis Chapman are two pieces that could be attractive to postseason contenders.