The MVP races in both leagues have seemingly been decided for a couple of months, with Yordan Alvarez in the AL and Shohei Ohtani in the NL pulling away from their respective fields and appearing to have the awards on lock. But things aren't as certain as they used to be.
While Alvarez and Ohtani are still comfortably the frontrunners in our latest MVP poll, the race in the NL has suddenly gotten much closer, which should make the stretch run quite interesting.
A total of 34 MLB.com experts cast votes for who they think will earn the hardware after the season, with 29 players receiving at least one vote. As a reminder, votes were based not only on results so far, but also on how things are expected to play out the rest of the season.
Voters ranked their top five picks in each league on a 5-4-3-2-1 scale -- five points for a first-place vote, four points for a second-place vote and so on. Here are the results.
All stats are through Sunday unless otherwise noted.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
1. Yordan Alvarez, Astros (163 total points; 30 first-place votes)
The question with Alvarez at this point isn't whether he's the clear MVP favorite, but whether he'll win the AL Triple Crown on his way to the award. He entered the week as the league leader in hits (123), average (.323), homers (34, also most in MLB) and RBIs (77), and also had an MLB-best 1.074 OPS and 245 total bases. Alvarez has played the biggest role in keeping the Astros in playoff contention. It's hard to see anyone else overtaking him.
2. Junior Caminero, Rays (111 total points; 2 first-place votes)
Though Caminero may not quite match the 45 homers and 110 RBIs he produced in 2025, he's actually having an even better season overall in 2026. He entered Monday with 29 homers (on pace for 44) and 63 RBIs (on pace for 97), but he also had a .915 OPS, which would easily be a career high. He also entered the week batting .283, which is well above his career norm.
3. Ben Rice, Yankees (73 total points; 1 first-place vote)
In any other season, the lefty-swinging Rice would probably be the MVP favorite. His 31 homers, 72 RBIs, .946 OPS and 52 extra-base hits entering Monday were all second behind Alvarez. The All-Star first baseman has a 1.043 OPS in July and continues to mash both righties and lefties. There's no telling where the Yankees' Aaron Judge-less lineup would be without Rice.
4. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals (57 total points)
Though on the 10-day IL at the moment (his first career IL stint), Witt is somewhat quietly putting together another excellent season. His 30 stolen bases entering Monday were most in the AL, while his 127 OPS+ was best among AL shortstops. With 13 homers so far, the three-time All-Star is unlikely to reach 30 to notch a third 30-30 season, but he remains one of the best all-around players in the game. When you factor in his elite defense at short, Witt has been worth 5.0 bWAR this season.
5. Willson Contreras, Red Sox (36 total points)
This is Contreras' first ranking in a 2026 MVP poll, but he's definitely earned it as arguably the main face of Boston's incredible turnaround over the past few weeks. Since the Red Sox began their 15-game winning streak on July 3, Contreras has hit .319 with an 1.108 OPS as he continues what's been a career year. He seems certain to top his career high in homers (24) and RBIs (80), while his .935 OPS would also be a career best.
Others receiving votes: Dillon Dingler, Tigers (1 first-place vote); Nick Kurtz, Athletics; Miguel Vargas, White Sox; Kevin McGonigle, Tigers; Cam Schlittler, Yankees; Yandy Díaz, Rays; Byron Buxton, Twins; Shea Langeliers, Athletics; Riley Greene, Tigers
NATIONAL LEAGUE
1. Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers (158 total points; 23 first-place votes)
Ohtani is still the favorite here, but things are getting a lot closer. Though he doesn't rank in the NL's top five for homers, RBIs or OPS through Sunday, he's still a force: 22 homers, 61 RBIs and a .907 OPS. However, it's his status as a pitcher that's made the race interesting. He's 8-2 with a 1.79 ERA in 14 starts, but he hasn't pitched since July 3 because of a bad knee. If he continues as just a one-way player at his current production, it may not be enough to win a fifth MVP award. It bears repeating: He doesn't need to be super-elite at hitting and pitching to be MVP-worthy. Just being "good" at both is more than enough, given the rarity of his talents. But he'll need to return to the mound and pitch well to make this race another runaway.
2. Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cubs (140 total points; 11 first-place votes)
PCA is the other reason why this race has gotten tighter. Even without Ohtani's uncertain two-way status, Crow-Armstrong has done plenty to force the issue since late May. He entered Monday batting .355 with 17 homers and a 1.184 OPS over his past 50 games to bring his season totals to 23 homers and a .932 OPS. That, combined with his 26 stolen bases, puts him well on track for a second-straight 30-30 season. And none of that includes his elite defense. His 20 Outs Above Average through Sunday are the most in MLB at any position. So, no wonder he leads all MLB players with 6.5 bWAR.
3. James Wood, Nationals (74 total points)
Wood has become one of MLB's best hitters. His .953 OPS entering Monday was tops in the NL, while his 30 homers ranked third. He also led the Majors with 82 walks through Sunday, which gave him a .396 on-base percentage -- the second-best mark in the Senior Circuit. Meanwhile, Wood's 95.2 mph average exit velocity is the highest of anyone with at least 200 batted-ball events.
4. Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (46 total points)
As long as Schwarber keeps crushing homers -- his 33 entering Monday are most in the NL -- he's going to be in the MVP conversation, especially if the Phillies stay in the playoff hunt. His 62 RBIs rank first among NL designated hitters, as does his .914 OPS. Schwarber's again on pace for 50 homers, almost always an MVP-worthy number, and he remains a hitter who no pitcher wants to face.
5. Jacob Misiorowski, Brewers (25 total points)
There's not been a full-time pitcher win an MVP Award since Clayton Kershaw in 2014, but The Miz is certainly making a run. The flame-throwing righty is 11-4 with an MLB-best 1.58 ERA, 185 strikeouts and 0.75 WHIP. He's been about as dominant as a pitcher can be. His skills were perhaps best on display on June 12, when he one-hit the Phillies in a shutout with no walks and 15 strikeouts. His outing Sunday against the Rockies (12 K's) wasn't bad, either.
Others receiving votes: Juan Soto, Mets; CJ Abrams, Nationals; Otto Lopez, Marlins; Brice Turang, Brewers; Jordan Walker, Cardinals; Cristopher Sánchez, Phillies; Corbin Carroll, D-backs; Matt Olson, Braves; Zack Wheeler, Phillies; JJ Wetherholt, Cardinals