3 predictions for the Royals' 2023 season

January 16th, 2023

This story was excerpted from Anne Rogers’ Royals Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, click here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.

We are now on Week 3 of the new year. Spring Training is inching closer and closer. What is on tap for the Royals in 2023?

Any improvement from a 97-loss season would be welcome, but this roster will be largely the same entering spring as it was when the Royals packed up the clubhouse in early October last year. Still, the club is banking on internal improvements -- young position players settling in and young pitchers taking steps forward -- along with new voices on the coaching staff. Maybe that doesn’t exactly scream "playoff bound" in 2023, but the Royals should be able to fully see what they have in all this young talent and adjust moving forward.

The kids are here to play -- now it’s time to see what they can do.

Here are three Royals predictions for 2023:

1. The Royals will sign at least one of their talented young players to a long-term deal

The time to start locking up at least a few young players to long-term deals is getting close for the Royals, especially if their goal is to contend in the next couple of years. There are plenty of young players who will be key pieces of that contention window, but a few stand out when thinking about long-term contract offers:

Witt makes the most sense as the Royals’ franchise player, but there's a chance he could end up out of the Royals’ anticipated price range when the time comes to sign an extension, unless they can get creative with his contract like the Mariners did with American League Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez. Kansas City has begun to think about what it would take to keep Witt long-term.

It might not quite be time to start contract talks with Melendez because of his position uncertainty -- a catcher’s contract might look different than an outfielder’s contract. His bat, though, might force the issue soon.

Singer and Pasquantino make the most sense. Singer is coming off a breakout year with his 3.23 ERA across 153 1/3 innings, while Pasquantino -- a former 11th-round pick out of Old Dominion -- hit .295/.383/.450 with 35 walks and 34 strikeouts after his debut in June. He established himself as the Royals’ No. 4 hitter and a critical piece of their lineup; he had a 137 wRC+, which ranked 29th in the big leagues (min. 250 plate appearances). If the Royals can lock up even one of their young stars, it signals a willingness to increase payroll and extend a competitive window.

2. Witt will become an elite shortstop

Speaking of one of their talented young players, there’s a lot to like about Witt’s first season in the big leagues. The 22-year-old slashed .254/.294/.428 with 20 homers, 31 doubles and 30 stolen bases. He flashed Gold Glove-caliber play at times, but he was also inconsistent, with 19 errors -- 16 of those at shortstop.

The Royals and scouts outside the organization do not believe that’s the kind of defender Witt will be in the long run. There were stretches of last season when he was battling injuries, which led to more errors, and he now knows what it takes to play a full season in the Majors.

“I think you might see a vastly different shortstop in 2023, one that’s way more consistent,” one AL scout told me.

The Royals hired infield coach José Alguacil to work specifically with the infielders instead of pairing that duty with another coaching role. Witt could benefit from that. If he stays healthy, I’m predicting he’ll at least be in the Gold Glove conversation come the end of next season.

3. The rotation’s breakout star will be ...

The first Royals pitcher from the 2018 MLB Draft to take a massive step forward in the big leagues was Singer last year, and others will need to follow suit -- while Singer needs to maintain that consistency -- if the Royals are to improve in 2023. The obvious choice could be Daniel Lynch; the lefty, drafted No. 34 overall in ’18, showed flashes of success in his first full year in the Majors, but still ran into inconsistency with a 5.13 ERA across 131 2/3 innings. He could benefit the most from the new pitching voices the Royals have put in place with pitching coach Brian Sweeney, assistant pitching coach Zach Bove (tasked with pitching strategy) and bullpen coach Mitch Stetter.

But don’t discount the pitcher the Royals drafted in the 13th round in 2018. Jonathan Heasley, while also struggling with inconsistency last season, continues to impress scouts with his stuff and presence on the mound. Besides Singer, Heasley is the big league pitcher scouts bring up the most in conversations about the Royals’ young group.

Heasley’s focus should be his fastball up in the zone, while continuing to rely on his curveball. He has five weapons, though, and it’s up to the coaches to help him get the most out of all five.