ST. PETERSBURG -- We knew coming into this World Series featuring two titleless teams that, one way or another, we were going to witness history.
Well, one way or another, we are going to witness history. It’s just that now the Brewers and Rays are trying to achieve even rarer history -- Milwaukee with a chance to become the first team to sweep both a best-of-seven LCS and World Series and the Rays with a chance to become the first team to claw back from an 0-3 hole to win the Fall Classic.
The Brewers, to state the obvious, have the stronger odds going into Game 4 on Tuesday night at Tropicana Field. Because after beating the Rays by the slimmest of margins back home in the Series’ first two games, they completely humbled them at The Trop with a 10-1 win in Game 3 that included a World Series record eight two-out runs in a single inning.
“We all love each other in this room,” Brewers second baseman Brice Turang said. “We're gonna go compete for each other as hard as we possibly can. … We’ve gotta finish the job, we’ve gotta keep putting pressure on them.”
Safe to say the Rays are feeling the pressure.
“It’s 3-0 now, but it starts tomorrow,” Yandy Díaz said through an interpreter. “We’ve got to win that one game that we have tomorrow and go from there.”
In all best-of-seven postseason series, teams with a 3-0 lead have gone on to win the series 42 of 43 times (98%), with 33 of those series ending as sweeps. That includes the Brewers sweeping the Dodgers in the NL Championship Series. Only two teams have forced a Game 7 after trailing 3-0, and only the 2004 Red Sox, in the ALCS against the Yankees, have come all the way back to win. In the World Series specifically, no team has ever made it as far as Game 6 after being in a 3-0 hole.
This World Series has been marked not just by the Brewers’ magic, but by the Rays’ mistakes. In every facet of the game -- but especially defensively -- they have not looked like the team that stormed to the top of the AL East, grabbed the AL’s No. 1 seed, swept the rival Yankees in the ALDS and came back from a 2-1 hole to beat the Guardians in the ALCS.
“I don't even think it's been a matter of necessarily playing bad,” Rays star Junior Caminero said through an interpreter. “I think a lot of credit goes to Milwaukee. They've just been playing exceptionally well. Earlier I told [William] Contreras, ‘I give you my blessing, wish you the best in this series.’ But kind of now it's like, ‘Well, you know, you've played a little too well.’ Things are what they are now. Credit to Milwaukee, but things just haven't unfolded our way necessarily.”
The Rays will go with Griffin Jax in Game 4, while the Brewers named Dustin May their starter a few hours before first pitch. Needless to say, the Rays will throw everything they have at this elimination game, but even there the Brewers have the advantage of not having gone to any of their top bullpen arms in Game 3.
Expect another strong -- perhaps even stronger -- attendance showing from the Brewers fans who flew down to potentially witness history. And one way or another, there will be history made in this World Series.
When is the game and how can I watch it?
Game 4 is Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET and airs nationally on FOX and FOX Deportes with streaming on FOX One.
All series are available in the US on MLB.TV with authentication to a participating Pay TV provider. Games also are available live internationally, although not in Canada. Sportsnet is MLB's exclusive English language broadcaster in Canada for every postseason game, while TVA Sports will be covering the entire AL postseason and the World Series in French and Broadcaster RDS will cover the entire NL postseason in French.
Who are the starting pitchers?
Brewers: RHP Dustin May
Key Stat: Allowed six runs on 10 hits vs. Rays as a member of the Cardinals on March 29, in St. Louis' third game of the season
The Brewers' decision to have Brandon Woodruff pitch the ninth inning of Monday's Game 3 rout tilted this start toward May, the only player with World Series experience coming into this postseason. The veteran righty, who pitched a scoreless inning in Game 2 of this set on what would have been his throw day, appeared in relief twice during the 2020 World Series as a member of the Dodgers, helping them edge the Rays in six games.
Rays: RHP Griffin Jax
Key Stat: 1.88 ERA in 24 IP over last six outings
This will only be Jax’s third appearance of the postseason. He spent the ALDS in the bullpen and pitched only two innings in Game 3, then he gave up three runs over four innings as Tampa Bay’s starter in Game 3 of the ALCS. He was in the bullpen to begin the World Series, just in case, but his first turn on the mound will come in Game 4.
Jax finished the regular season on fire, allowing just one run on nine hits and three walks while striking out 15 in 18 innings over his final four starts, all of which the Rays won. He gave up one run at Yankee Stadium but struck out half of the eight batters he faced, then he had a frustrating inning while permitting three runs during his four-inning outing in Cleveland 12 days ago.
What are the starting lineups?
Brewers: The Brewers kept the same lineup for each of the first three games of this World Series, including Monday’s historic rout, but Game 4 brought one tweak: Sal Frelick jumps up to No. 6 from eighth, swapping spots with Garrett Mitchell.
1. Jackson Chourio, LF
2. Jake Bauers, 1B
3. Christian Yelich, DH
4. William Contreras, C
5. Brice Turang, 2B
6. Sal Frelick, RF
7. Cooper Pratt, SS
8. Garrett Mitchell, CF
9. David Hamilton, 3B
Rays: The Rays set their lineup before Milwaukee named May their starter, opting for a more traditional starting nine than the extremely right-handed-heavy one they used in Game 3.
1. Yandy Díaz, DH
2. Jonathan Aranda, 1B
3. Junior Caminero, 3B
4. Liam Hicks, C
5. Jonny DeLuca, CF
6. Chandler Simpson, LF
7. Ryan Vilade, RF
8. Richie Palacios, 2B
9. Taylor Walls, SS
How will the bullpens line up after the starter?
Brewers: Going into Game 3, the Brewers had been within plus or minus one run of the opponent at the end of 66 of the first 90 innings of this postseason. They had been within two runs one way or the other at the end of all but four innings. It meant their top relievers have pitched a lot, including Aaron Ashby, whose 15 2/3 innings lead the team. But Ashby, Abner Uribe and Trevor Megill all not only got to rest on Monday, the game was so lopsided they got to watch some of the final innings from the dugout instead of the bullpen down the left-field line. They will be ready to go in Game 4.
Rays: Well, the season is on the line, so it’s all hands on deck. Expect manager Kevin Cash to have a short leash with Jax, if he runs into any trouble, then play the matchups with a bullpen that’s struggled to find much success all series. Veteran starter Nick Martinez can provide some length after pitching in Game 1. Closer Bryan Baker could be asked to pitch more than one inning. It’s hard to imagine them calling upon Drew Rasmussen, who started Saturday, given his injury history. But this game is all that stands between the Rays and the offseason. Anything goes.
Any injuries of note?
Brewers: The biggest question mark for the Brewers on the eve of the World Series was Woodruff, and he answered those questions by getting the final three outs of Game 3. Logic says a pitcher who just pitched in a game for the first time since July 4 with barely any ramp-up will not pitch back-to-back days. But all of this is so improbable already, how does one rule anything out?
Rays: Starter Shane McClanahan was ruled out for the postseason, although he will be ready to go next spring. Otherwise, nothing new.
Who is hot and who is not?
Brewers: Chourio had four hits by the fifth inning of Game 3 and finished a hit shy of joining Paul Molitor (Game 1 in 1982) and Albert Pujols (Game 3 in 2011) as the only players to collect five hits in a World Series game. Chourio is 8-for-14 in the World Series with three stolen bases and four runs scored. … Besides producing at the plate to the tune of a .419/.490/.651 slash line in the postseason, Contreras is having an epic World Series behind the plate. He is the first catcher to throw out three runners stealing within the first three games of a World Series since Darren Daulton in 1993.
Rays: It’s hard to call any of the Rays’ hitters “hot,” considering they’ve scored one run in their last 17 innings and have managed only seven hits during that time. Aranda (four) and Simpson (three) are the only Rays with more than two hits in this series. Díaz had two hits in Game 3 after two hitless games. And it’s not like their bullpen has been rolling, either. You might not notice this kind of team-wide slump if it happened in the middle of the season, but it’s happened under the brightest lights that baseball has to offer.
Anything else fans might want to know?
• The Brewers became the first team to score double-digit runs in a World Series game without hitting a home run since the Giants beat the Royals, 11-4, in Game 4 in 2014.
• The Brewers are one of five current franchises that has never won the World Series, with the Mariners, Padres, Rays and Rockies. Milwaukee would escape that list with one more win.
• The Rays won Game 4 in their last trip to the World Series, and it turned out to be one of the most memorable moments in franchise history: Randy Arozarena scored the winning run after an improbable single by Brett Phillips and a couple misplays by the Dodgers’ defense, leading to the folk hero Phillips’ famous “airplane” run around the outfield.
• Rays icon Evan Longoria will throw out the ceremonial first pitch after Joe Maddon and James Shields teamed up to handle the honors prior to Game 3.
• At the end of the fifth inning, MLB and Stand Up To Cancer will continue the annual Fall Classic tradition of players, coaches, umpires, staff and fans holding placards honoring loved ones affected by cancer.