HOUSTON -- Welcome to uncharted territory, Astros fans. It’s not a place you’re used to being, and if Houston had won one more game in 2025, you wouldn’t be giving it a second thought. But one of the silver innings of not making the playoffs is that the Astros will participate in the MLB Draft Lottery for the first time.
That’s not necessarily a bad thing, considering the chance -- albeit remote -- of landing the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s MLB Draft should provide some intrigue at next week’s Winter Meetings. So grab your lucky rabbit’s foot and dig into what you need to know about the Draft Lottery:
When is the Draft Lottery?
For the fourth straight year, MLB Network will exclusively air the MLB Draft Lottery Special presented by Nike on Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. CT to determine the first six club selections in the 2026 Draft.
When did the Lottery start?
A Draft lottery was established per the 2022-26 CBA to determine the first six picks in the MLB Draft, so the 2023 Draft was the first to have used it. The Astros, of course, made the playoffs from 2017-24. In the past, Draft order was based on the previous season's records -- the team with the worst record received the first overall pick, followed by the team with the second-worst record, and so on.
How does it work?
Typically, all non-playoff teams are entered into a lottery to determine the top six picks. This year, 15 of the 18 teams who didn’t make the postseason in ’25 are eligible for the lottery.
Here are the odds of landing the No. 1 pick, with 2025 winning percentages in parentheses.
White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%
Marlins (.488) -- 1.85%
D-backs (.494) -- 1.51%
Rangers (.500) -- 1.34%
Giants (.500) -- 1.01%
Royals (.506) -- 0.84%
Mets (.512) -- 0.67%
Astros (.537) -- 0.34%
Rockies (.265) -- ineligible
Nationals (.407) -- ineligible
Angels (.444) – ineligible
Since the Rockies received a lottery pick in the 2024 and '25 Drafts, they are not eligible for this year’s lottery -- teams cannot receive a lottery pick in more than two consecutive years. The Nationals and Angels are “payor clubs” -- teams that give rather than receive revenue sharing dollars -- and payors cannot receive a lottery pick in consecutive years. That means the lowest pick the Astros could have in the first round is No. 18.
The lottery results don't affect picks 1-18 in rounds 2-20, which will be in reverse order of winning percentage.
Will the Astros have any additional first-round picks?
Yes. The Astros also hold the No. 28 overall pick, a Prospect Promotion Incentive pick they received for pitcher Hunter Brown placing in the top three in American League Cy Young voting. A compensation pick for free agent pitcher Framber Valdez signing with another team would come after the fourth round, considering Valdez turned down a qualifying offer.
When was the last time the Astros had the No. 1 pick?
They had the No. 1 overall pick three years in a row (2012-14) while they were in full-blown rebuild mode. They took Puerto Rican shortstop Carlos Correa in ’12, Stanford pitcher Mark Appel in ’13 and high school lefty Brady Aiken in ’14. Correa became a star, Appel didn’t reach the big leagues with Houston and Aiken didn’t sign after the Astros found issues with his elbow.
The Astros got a compensation pick in 2015 for not signing Aiken and drafted LSU shortstop Alex Bregman with the No. 2 overall pick -- three picks before taking Tampa high schooler Kyle Tucker. Not bad. They also had the No. 1 pick in 1992 (famously taking Phil Nevin over Derek Jeter) and in 1976 (Arizona State pitcher Floyd Bannister).
Who won last year’s Draft Lottery?
The Nationals won the lottery a year ago despite 10.2 percent odds and selected prep shortstop Eli Willits (WSH No. 1/MLB No. 15) with the No. 1 overall pick. The Guardians ('24) and Pirates ('23) won the previous two lotteries, using those selections to draft Travis Bazzana (CLE No. 1/MLB No. 17) and Paul Skenes, respectively.
When is the 2026 MLB Draft
The first round of the 2026 MLB Draft will take place on Saturday, July 11, moving away from Sunday for the first time since the event moved to All-Star Week in 2021.