Fernando Tatis Jr. is one of the most electric players in baseball.
The Padres star is coming off another stellar season in which he helped San Diego earn the top NL Wild Card spot and win a playoff series against the Cubs.
Here’s a look at Tatis’s 2026 season and what to expect moving forward.
What happened in 2026?
.289/.358/.470 slash line, 25 HR, 38 SB, 5.4 WAR (per FanGraphs) in 159 G
Tatis’s 2026 season was a tale of two stories.
There’s the first 55 games in which Tatis didn’t homer, a shocking stretch devoid of power for someone that entered the season with 152 career home runs. Then there was the torrid rest of the season, in which Tatis hit .299/.365/.549 with 25 home runs, 24 stolen bases and 4.9 WAR, second best in the Majors during that time behind NL MVP favorite Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Tatis especially turned things on in the second half, posting a .995 OPS with 20 home runs and 15 stolen bases in his final 64 games. Unsurprisingly, Tatis’ dominance after initial struggles coincided with the Padres performing as one of baseball’s top teams in the second half, resulting in securing the top Wild Card spot and beating the Cubs in the Wild Card Seriesbefore falling to the Brewers in the NLDS.
Put it all together and Tatis was his usual excellent self across the whole season. His 5.4 WAR was third best in a single season and his 131 wRC+ was just about in line with his career 135 mark.
Key stat
.397 xwOBA from May 30 to end of season
None of Tatis’ improvements were by accident. Perhaps the single-biggest change was Tatis elevating the ball more starting on May 30. In Tatis’ 55 homerless games through May 29, his average launch angle was one degree, tied for the lowest mark among the 343 hitters with at least 50 batted balls. After that point, it was seven degrees, a much more manageable figure that meant most batted balls weren’t on the ground.
But Tatis also hit the ball harder and made more contact during these different stretches, resulting in a .397 expected wOBA (based on a hitter’s quality and quantity of contact) from May 30 through the end of the season.
Tatis through May 29 vs. rest of season (468 PA)
Hard-hit rate: 51.9% vs. 55.6%
Barrel rate: 9.5% vs. 14.4%
Avg. exit velocity: 89.9 mph vs. 94.4 mph
Strikeout%: 21.6% vs. 16.9%
Whiff%: 29.8% vs. 23.8%
Biggest question for 2027
Is there another level for him?
Perhaps it’s unfair to ask if there’s another level for a 27-year-old (he’ll be 28 on Opening Day) that owns a career .860 OPS with 177 home runs and 162 stolen bases and is a premium defender in right field. Yet, it’s not out of the question that Tatis can take it up a notch -- we saw that from June through the rest of the season.
Just consider the possibility of Tatis doing what he did from May 30 onward for an entire season. Prorate those numbers out to a full season and you’re looking at something like a 7+ WAR and a 40-40 season. We haven’t seen that type of full season from Tatis since 2021, which obviously came a year before he was suspended for a banned substance.
It’s a testament to Tatis that we can even talk about there being another level, considering he’s a three-time All-Star and two-time Platinum Glove winner and owns 32.0 career WAR. Yet, it’s not out of the realm to envision him putting together a season-long heater that results in some potential hardware for him.