There has never been a batting title race quite like the one we’re witnessing in the American League this year, and it could very well come down to the wire with under three weeks to go in the regular season.
As Astros slugger and AL MVP candidate Yordan Alvarez continues his quest for the second Triple Crown season in this century, he’s being closely followed in the batting average department by none other than Rays left fielder Chandler Simpson, a speedy contact hitter whose OPS is currently .691.
Entering play on Saturday, with Alvarez’s Astros at Tropicana Field taking on Simpson’s Rays, the former is batting .310, and the latter is batting .306.
To put into context the rarity of such a batting title competition, there has never been a batting champion in either league who finished the season with an OPS below .700.
Simpson is a speed merchant who legs out infield singles and is able to get the most out of a swing speed that ranks 202nd out of 204 qualified batters this season, according to Statcast (only Luis Arraez and Steven Kwan have slower average swing speeds).
Alvarez is an elite slugger who is among the most feared hitters in the game today. His 76.2 mph average swing speed ranks 17th in MLB. His expected weighted on-base average, per Statcast, is an MLB-best .443.
Simpson’s xwOBA is nearly 200 points below that, at .264, which places him 242nd of 244 qualified batters. As for expected slugging percentage, Simpson’s 241st-ranked .296 mark is more than 300 points below Alvarez’s MLB-leading .642.
Alvarez has produced 66 barrels this season, the most in the Majors. Simpson is the only qualified hitter in the game without one. Alvarez has smashed a career-high 38 home runs this season and has 208 for his career. Simpson has zero career homers in 937 at-bats.
Alvarez has hit 30% of his balls in play this season on the ground. Simpson’s ground-ball rate is more than twice that, at 60.9%.
How is it possible that two hitters with such stark differences in style and such massive gaps in most offensive categories are just four points apart when it comes to batting average?
Well, Simpson puts the ball in play a ton. As in, 87% of his plate appearances this season have resulted in a ball in play. And when he connects, he often gets the most out of his admittedly “soft” swing -- his average squared-up rate, according to Statcast (squared-up rate tells us how often a batter realizes at least 80% of the highest possible exit velocity available based on the swing speed and pitch speed) is 41.8%, second only to Mookie Betts in MLB.
But the most important element of Simpson’s unusual ability to produce hits is his elite speed. With someone who puts the ball on the ground as often as Simpson does, being fleet of foot is a major component of batting average.
Of Simpson’s 160 hits this season, 88% have been singles. And 23% have been infield hits. Of those MLB-leading 37 infield hits, 14 have been bunt singles. By contrast, of Alvarez’s 162 hits, 43% are of the extra-base variety. Simpson’s 29.5 feet/second average sprint speed has been paying off at the plate.
Simpson’s speed factor shows up in the major disparity between his expected batting average and Alvarez’s. For Alvarez, the difference between his actual batting average and his xBA based on quality of contact (.320) is a reasonable +10 points. The differential for Simpson was +49 entering Friday, the largest in the Majors.
In other words, an average runner making the same contact as Simpson isn’t batting anywhere near .306.
But hey, you can’t argue with results -- whether they come from the prototypical slugger like Alvarez or the unique offensive profile of Simpson.
“Continuing to stay within myself, know my toolset,” is how Simpson has described the mindset behind his remarkable production. “Continue to use the big part of the field, and just take it one pitch at a time.”
We know what Simpson means here when he says “big part of the field.” But in one sense, the “big part of the field” for his game has been the infield.
All of this raises another interesting observation: Simpson isn’t accomplishing this the same way another, perhaps more visible, light-hitting bat master has been doing it -- current MLB batting average leader Arraez’s sprint speed is below average and his ground-ball rate is only 37%.
There’s a good chance we’ll see history made when this year’s AL batting champion is crowned. Simpson’s Rays teammate, Yandy Díaz, is right behind him, at .303, but if Simpson does win the batting title and his OPS remains below .700, he’ll be the first player to ever pull that off.
And if Alvarez wins, of course, he could very well become only the second Triple Crown winner in nearly 60 years.
Stay tuned.